Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 21st August

No real interest from me today after a massive weekend result. Looking towards Saturday, very trappy/lacklustre midweek meeting that wouldn’t look out of place at the provincials.

Race 2 – 12:52PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

1. Wilchino – 2. Bedouin Belle – 5. City Circle – 6. Dark City

Race 3 – 1:12PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. I’m Pretty – 5. Marlize – 8. Glamour Packed – 9. Devoted Star

I’m Pretty

Was a complete forgive last start I’m Pretty when pulling up with an elevated heart rate and slow to recover. That day she went around a strong favourite in a much stronger 66+ event than she faces here. Drops in grade to a 60+ and actually carries less weight than she carried last start after the claim for Corver. She’s been back to the trials since and I though it was a superb piece of work. This looks a race that lacks genuine speed, she’s drawn well, gets onto what should be a drying soft 5/good 4 track and it just looks a race set-up for a horse with a turn of foot that can come from behind the front couple of pairs in running. She fits the bill nicely, only query being whether she is just a “Pike horse” and only goes for William, but at the price I’m happy to have something on.

1 Unit WIN

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Race 4 – 1:52PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

4. Aragain – 8. All Man – 2. Sluice Box – 10. Sugar Cain

Race 5 – 2:28PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

5. Minus Looks – 4. Al Mahalo – 8. What About Moi – 2. Nelson’s Flight

Race 6 – 3:10PM AMELIA PARK – BLUE SPEC STAKES (1600 METRES)

3. Montelena – 6. Red Publisher – 5. Kelly’s Callisto – 7. Living The Dream

Montelena

She was the best closer in a Ngawyni, running the fastest L400/200m splits of the race after settling a mile back off an absolute walk of a tempo, she was given absolutely none. Chris Parnham going back on is a huge positive here, as is the step up in trip to the mile. The thought process is although she may not be able to hold that leaders back position from the gate given she doesn’t step all that well, if she’s only spotting horses the likes of Living The Dream and Kelly’s Callisto 2-3 lengths on straightening from a 3 back the fence position, if she gets clear air, she really should be able to run past these. The McAulliffe stable are all guns blazing at the moment and are well and truly back in form, and if she can settle closer here in the run then I think she’ll be winning or going very close.

3.5 Units WIN

Red Publisher

The old boy just keeps stepping out and doing his thing Red Publisher. Was a great run out of the same form race the Ngawyni and really liked the way he attacked the line late there and he maps to get a very similar run here. Will definitely appreciate getting back onto a drying track where he does his best racing. 2 starts back he’s run 2.8 lengths adrift of Kelly’s Callisto on an unsuited Heavy 10, now here he gets back onto a dryer track, gets a 4.5kg weight swing on that runner and a map where he can sit 1-1 and effectively stalk him in the breeze. I think he can definitely turn the tables on that runner here and if Montelena doesn’t go past the front pair, then he can be the one, and in comparison you’re seeing $9.00 Red Publisher opposed to the $4.00 Kelly’s, easy bet.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 7 – 3:50PM COOL RIDGE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Chatter Session – 1. Zephyr Queen – 8. Gunmetal Grey – 6. Miss Vasari

Race 8 – 4:25PM PENINSULA DINING ROOM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. Iseered Iseered – 9. Bumper Humper – 7. All Day Session – 4. Express Time

Race 9 – 5:00PM HORSEPOWER – A NIGHT AT THE RACES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Notorious One – 7. Phoneme – 6. La Farola – 2. Miracle Man

Notorious One

Looks to me one of the better bets on the card Notorious One. Still does some things green as grass, but last start he’s missed the kick by 2L, only got room passing the 200 but once he got out into clear air he just let down like a really good horse, he’s got a pretty remarkable stride on him. To me, in this field, the only thing that will be beating him, with the ability he has to reel off the late sectionals that he does, is if he doesn’t get out and gets unlucky from Barrier 1. Banking on CJP to weave a passage as he so often does so well and very keen we can end the day on a positive note. Skinny at $1.95, not interested, happy to get involved at anything $2.60+ late, think we will see a drift given he still does so much wrong.

4 Units WIN if $2.60+ SP

Staking Plan

Race 3 I’m Pretty 1 Unit WIN

Race 6 Montelena 3.5 Units WIN/Red Publisher 1.5 Units WIN

Race 9 Notorious One 4 Units WIN if $2.60+ SP

6 Units Staked, potential for 10 if we see our price.

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