Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 18th September

Think there is plenty of value floating around at Belmont today. Soft 6 track, rail 6m, will be crucial to see the pattern early in the day with bets to come as we get a better gauge but will highlight the horses that interest me from a betting perspective.

Race 1 – 12:43PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1600 METRES)

4. Henchard – 5. River Rubicon – 1. Celevacci – 6. Prince Of Guelph

Race 2 – 1:19PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Rebel Knight – 2. Kaptain Kaos – 1. Zephyr Queen – 5. Miss Marietta

Race 3 – 1:59PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

5. Snipillicious – 1. Apple Schnapps – 3. Dance Cockey – 7. Petite La Femme

Snipillicious

In what I feel is a race in 2, given the favourite is under even money, I’m more than happy to side with Snippilicious, who was scratched from a very winnable midweek race yesterday to save for this. On paper, his form actually reads pretty terrible if I’m honest from his previous couple of preps but the trial, behind who I think is going to be one of the top 3yo’s in the state Ruthless Tycoon, was superb, and one of a horse who has just come back better. I will admit, the wetter the better for the fav and if we jump on a soft 7 he looks very hard to beat. Snip’s trial was on rain-affected and the fav is giving him 5.5kgs, he’s definitely worth backing at around that $7-8 mark.

1 Unit WIN

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Race 4 – 2:38PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Probity – 1. War Gem – 4. Buzzoom – 5. Mahaleo

Race 5 – 3:20PM HAPPY 70TH BIRTHDAY ROSIE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Bad Wolf – 4. No Apology – 6. La Farola – 5. Fangio

Bad Wolf

In a race likely to divide opinion between the top few elects in the market, I’m going to side with the horse from the Money Maley yard in Bad Wolf who is just flying. What bodes well for him here I feel, is coming out of that last win once they passed the 600m they really picked up and went at a frantic tempo in the run home and he’s had to go around all of them from last, such was the strength of the win, which I don’t think he has to do here from the draw. You’ve got Harry Thomas, Dictator, Koranis and Mr Delegator all engaged so you know this is going to be run at a serious clip.
The 3 weeks between runs has been working an absolute treat for him and I really can’t fault the set-up for him in this race. Fangio had everything go right that could of 1st up, La Farola in a fast-run mile I’m not completely sold on although she had genuine excuses last start, I’m happy to be with the Wolf.

1 Unit WIN

Race 6 – 3:55PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Image Keeper – 6. Indigo Blue – 5. Little Flirt – 8. Reliable Star

Image Keeper

Jury out for me with Campese, don’t think he is genuine. Image Keeper is a winner and although this is a step from last prep, it is far from a strong race. He’s a winner, the trial was really strong in-front of some handy horses, maps to get a lovely run up on-top of the speed. Think he runs a really big race fresh.

1 Unit WIN

Race 7 – 4:35PM NICOPOLIS STAKES (1200 METRES)

7. Charleton Eddie – 9. Crystal Spirit – 1. Excellent Dream – 6. Jericho Missile

Charleton Eddie

Interesting market this one. When you compare the runs from the Jolly Beggar and the fact that Charleton Eddie gets a 2kg swing on Iseered Iseered, the fact that Charleton Eddie is longer in the market (and only 50c shorter than a horse like Son Of A God) is wrong. Was by far the more superior of the two runs and if you could guarantee me that Charleton Eddie were to find the top here I’d just about be chips in but thats not how racing works sadly. Just hope Turner is aggressive from the gate and tries to find the top and think you might see the favourite ridden with the intention of finding some cover this time around, especially given I think he is suspect at the 1200m, which is Charleton Eddie’s bread and butter trip. Keen he can turn the tables.

1.25 Units WIN

Crystal Spirit

Also wanted to touch on the horse with the alternative formlines coming into this race and that is our pal Crystal Spirit. Ran 2nd to Kaptain Kaos last start over this trip and if you haven’t watched the replay I suggest you do, because it was one of the more extraordinary last 600s you will see to almost pinch it. Obviously, its not ideal when a horse misses the step but he seems to step much better under O’Donnell (hence why they might have opted not to claim here with Laqdar, if it’s a claiming race) and if he can land at the rear blending in with something to take him into the race, if they can make ground down the middle, I have no doubt he can let rip and run over the top of these and double figures is a huge price to find out.

0.75 Units WIN

Race 8 – 5:10PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

1. Red Hot Tip – 9. Vintage Stock – 7. Overthought – 6. Seminole Brave

Race 9 – 5:40PM ASCOT RACING CARNIVAL HANDCIAP (1000 METRES)

5. All Day Session – 4. Glasgow Girl – 8. Solid Azza – 3. Mood Swings

All Day Session

High pressure 1000, soggy track, ready made set-up for All Day Session here in the last. Very unlucky last start when held up at a crucial stage, and if you watch the replay he also dips quite badly halfway down the straight but once he balances up he just chews ground off them late. There is speed coming from all over the shop here, meaning you can almost guarantee a 3 deep moving line, and if Rawiller can just park him up 3 in that line 3 deep with cover and be the one having the last crack at them, he will definitely be showing his hand late in the piece.

3 Units WIN

Glasgow Girl

1000m traditionally isn’t her go, nor is a genuinely wet deck, but I simply have to have something on Glasgow Girl at double figures off the back of her trial leading into this fresh assignment. The way she hit the line untouched in one of the hotter 930m trials you’ll see is one of a horse in for a very good preparation. Drawn well, can hold up a spot, I just can’t let her go round without something.

0.5 Units WIN

Solid Azza

Another you’ll see a price for that you can definitely have something on. Was huge fresh against the bias in the far inferior part of the track. Barrier 1 probably the worst barrier he could have drawn. I’m having something on purely because if he gets a run (will need plenty of luck to see air when he needs it) he will be there in the finish. Booming finish on him if he can get through.

0.5 Units WIN

Staking Plan

Race 3 Snipillicious 1 Unit WIN

Race 5 Bad Wolf 1 Unit WIN

Race 6 Image Keeper 1 Unit WIN

Race 7 Charleton Eddie 1.25 Units WIN/Crystal Spirit 0.75 Units WIN

Race 9 All Day Session 3 Units WIN/Glasgow Girl 0.5 Units WIN/Solid Azza 0.5 Units WIN

9 Units Staked.

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