ATP Mallorca Preview: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan

ATP Mallorca is a new tennis tournament in the lead-up to The Championships at Wimbledon. It has served as great preparation for many players as they get used to the fast, flat grass surface. We have our tips for the Semi-Finals that are being played tonight featuring the World Number 2 and tournament top seed Daniil Medvedev below.

Daniil Medvedev v Pablo Carreno-Busta

While the World No 2 is not known for his success on grass, he still boasts a professional 20 – 13 record, winning nearly 60% of the time on the surface. He has looked great in wins against the erratic Coretin Moutet and the World No 14 Casper Ruud. He cannot usually be trusted the week before a grand slam, however, he will be looking to get as many wins under his belt as he can for his confidence after an unexpected early exit at ATP Halle against Struff last week.

PCB had only won 2 games on grass before this tournament, with a poor 2 – 8 record. His style of play is not at all suited to the conditions, and while he has put together two wins in the last week, he has not been properly tested yet. He will struggle to keep up tonight without the required power and offense that Medvedev possesses. Medvedev also leads their H2H 2-1, however, none of those games were played on a grass surface.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Medvedev 2-0 @ 1.70

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Sam Querrey v Adrian Mannarino

Both of these players are probably lucky to be here after each received a walkover in the round of 16. Querrey is an intriguing player. When he is serving well and moving swiftly around the court, he looks as if he can beat anybody on grass. He has enjoyed plenty of success on the surface, and has a solid 64% win rate in over 110 matches. The 33 year old has put together some good tennis over the past few weeks however still cannot be trusted. While his win against RBA looked dominant, he only converted one break point in the first set, and was able to grind out a win by winning the second set tiebreak 7 – 4. Yes, that was a great win for him, but I think that it comes across better than it looks. Additionally, apart from that, he has not beaten a player in the top 100 this grass court swing.

Mannarino, World No 42, seems to find an extra gear every grass season. It is his best performing surface (58%), and while he has also started the year shaky and inconsistently, he has been putting together some great results over the last month. He has been an underdog in all his games thus far at Mallorca and proven otherwise, beating the powerhouse Struff and the tricky veteran Lopez. The H2H record between him and Querrey is 3-3, albeit none of those meetings were on grass. I expect this game to go incredibly tight and believe that Adrian should be closer to even money. He is too wide as the more experienced, more consistent, trustworthy player. I think the total games line is too low as well, with at least one tie break occurring in 4 out of the 6 games played between the two, keeping in mind that grass is the hardest surface to break serve on.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Querrey / Mannarino o23.5 games @ 1.9
• 1u Querrey / Mannarino o2.5 sets @ 2.37
• 0.5u Mannarino @ 2.4
• 0.5u Mannarino 2-1 @ 5

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