Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan: Saturday 30th January

Sichern

Big debut from this Liz Strempel galloper. Drew really wide over the 1300m at Pinjarra, was slow away, back at the tail, looked for a run between horses at the top of the straight and couldn’t find one, taken out across heels when finding clear air at the 200m and savaged the line with his big strides late for a close 3rd, running the fastest L200 split of the entire meeting on debut, something you don’t see too often from first starters. It was really impressive and he would have won the race comfortably with better luck when he needed it. Think Hill just needs to find him some cover midfield and clear air at the top of the straight to be winning this, boding the track isn’t real heavily leaders bias early which he haven’t seen even with the easterlys in play of late.

2.5 Units WIN

All Day Session

Went huge in that Magical Dream plunge race a fortnight back. Comes here at his 8th start for the prep, but that last run signalled he may be going as well as he ever has after being tested in some really deep 3 year old races at distances probably beyond him. Was a touch slow out of the gates, was absolutely bolting for a run when finding a wall at the top of the straight, once he got out he really hit the line the way you want them to. We know he’s got early speed, and if he can leave the stalls better here and find a spot just in behind what looks to be a very genuine tempo, if they overdo it I think he is a big chance to be running on over them late. Gets C.Parnham on for Pateman too, who really thrives on horses that sit off the speed. Really rated the run of Devine Beast from that same race who is hard in the market here, but I feel like if you swap the runs with All Day Session, who was still looking for runs behind horses with Devine Beast out, off and gone at the top of the straight, All Day Session would have finished at the worst alongside her, or have beaten her home. Comparatively, both these runners should be much tighter in the market, and ADS represents the value for me in the race. Easy each way investment.

0.5 Units WIN/1.5 Units PLACE

Kissonallforcheeks is the class horse of the race. Winner of the Lee Steere and close 2nd in the Burgess Queen signal her quality, which was preceded by a 1st up win over the 1200m. Has had an 8 week freshen since her last start win and has been pigeonholed by Danny Morton as one he is heading East with. Races really well fresh, but have queries here. I doubt they will want to give her a gutbuster before she heads east, so more than likely Parnham will drop her out the back to last here and Morton will just hope she hits the line strongly late in a pipe-opener of sorts to set her up for her Melbourne targets. Unsure whether there will be genuine intent to win here, which when compounded by the map, makes it tough for me to have her so am looking elsewhere here. With the tempo expected, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they go helter-skelter and compound late to see her as the one coming over the top of them late 3 wide with cover, but I do have my queries.

In The Boat comes here off a really promising debut win down at Bunbury after trialling the house down prior. Form has been well and truly franked too, with Hot Zed spanking them since, who he comfortably had the measure of. Has accepted and been scratched a few times since then which makes me think he may have had a slight hiccup? From a map perspective, Harvey probably has to look to try and cross Starfield Impact and Vane Tempest who jump from gates 2 and 3, which with Vane Tempest jumping the way she did last start, seems far from an impossibility. It likely though will take a fair bit of work to get there if Harvey is really aggressive, but if they do leave well and kick up underneath, Harvey finds himself in a pretty vulnerable position. I don’t think they will take a sit, although I am not prepared to rule it out either. He’s clearly very talented and has huge upside, but contends a sticky map in what is a pretty deep race having only had the 1 race start when he got it all his own way out in front, different circumstances here.

Red Publisher

Ash Maley arguably has the veteran in as good a form as we’ve seen from him at the moment, absolutely flying. His run in the Australia Day Cup was massive, just got shuffled back after beginning well before, tried to track Son Of A God into the straight and copped one of the more questionable rides you will see, mind-boggling stuff when you consider nothing was mentioned in the stewards report. McNaught tried to find a run back to the inside of that horse, which ultimately found him trouble, when she had the perfect opportunity to just pop off his back into clear air, which if she had of done so, he would no doubt have won the race. Cutting back to the inside of SOAG to her detriment found him squeezed between horses, especially when he looked to have a full head of steam and was chopped out at the 150 before finishing on the heels of the eventual winner She’s Alight, who took the exact run down the middle of the track that he should have had if Jade had made a better decision at the top of the straight. 7 day back-up, Pike lands on here which is lengths for a horse of this nature and if anyone is to weave a path up the rail from 3 deep the fence, you know Pikey never forgets his pogo stick. Or, if he can hold a less than aggressive Beaucount out and take up the fence spot leaders back, it has to be game on. Red hot chance to knock off who is going to be a very short favourite here. $5.00 is a little under his right price, but anything $5.50 upwards is definitely worth backing.

1 Unit WIN if you can see $5.50+ late

Last Of The Line is a very likeable horse for SJ Miller and think he has a black type win in him somewhere down the track. Just has so much scope and upside being so lightly raced, and being a horse that can sit just off the speed and still produce a big finish will only help him in achieving that. Stepped up in grade last start off the quick back-up and just won like a good horse and to me looked to have a fair bit more under the hood. Stays at the 1400m, maps to get another very economical run in transit, does gain an extra 2kgs for his trouble off his last win but really shouldn’t be of much, if any influence. Can’t knock, but a price about in the red is too skinny.

Phoneme was a victim of circumstance when finding himself out in front last start when nothing else wanted to lead. Is much better ridden colder with a cart into the race. Just not sure he can outsprint LOTL, especially when coming from behind that runner. Most importantly though, he does get a 2kg weight swing in his favour on that runner.

Carocapo

Racing in career best form Capo. Enjoyed a lovely run in transit in the Miss Andretti on the back of the leader and held off allcomers bar the winner. Gets another lovely map here where I think he should find the box seat up to his pet trip. Just goes to another level over the 1200m, gets a 1.5kg weight swing on the favourite who could find himself caught in the ruck at the rear of the field if luck doesn’t fall her way, think he is a big chance to pinch this and get a very well deserved black type box ticked on his resume. The only runner who interests me at the prices and an easy each-way gamble.

Anything upwards of $6+ is an easy each-way investment for me here (1 Unit). Price has been chewed away since time of writing.

For Flirtini, a 6 week freshen did the trick and she went past them as if they were standing still in the Miss Andretti. The rise to the 1200m should only play more so into her hands. Justifiable favourite. Has to repeat the dose from out the back again, in a race where there are a few more potential roadblocks than she found in the Miss Andretti. But that win was just so impressive it’s hard to think she isn’t capable of going again if she gets the right run when she needs it. Really hard to knock.

Lockroy was a superb trial and looks to be in terrific knick, the draw/jockey combo hurts but can surprise if given the right run.

Samizdat is one I always had faith in him that he’d eventually get back to his best and his last start effort in the Miss Andretti was a sign that he’s not far away. Hit the line really well for 4th from a long way back, signalling he’d be better for further. The problem is he had what was essentially a slightly easier run from on straightening to the post as the winner Flirtini, who looked effortless in going straight past him and it’s hard to see him turning the tables on her off that. From the draw he likely finds himself in a similar position at the tail, trying to find a toe into it in that 3 deep moving line with cover. Does get a 2kg weight swing on the favourite and if O’Donnell finds himself in a position where Flirtini is on his inside, and he can try keep Pike in a pocket for as long as he can, it might just pay dividends if he finds clear air first.