Light south westerlys and 26 degree weather meet us for this Saturday’s Ascot meeting which takes place in much cooler conditions than we’ve recently been acquainted too, rail out the 7m.
January 11, 2025, Saturday
Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan : Saturday 23rd January
January 21, 2021
By Rylie Morgan
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- WA Racing Results: -1.69 Units (since 01/07/20) *Recorded at SP*
Race 1 – 12:04PM AMELIA PARK MAIDEN (1500 METRES)
11. Trisuem – 4. King Cruzer – 10. Oceanzara – 3. Springsure Lad
Race 2 – 12:44PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1000 METRES)
10. Michelada – 4. Buster’s Force – 2. Heavenly Waters – 6. Gorgeous Gossip
Race 3 – 1:24PM DEVIL’S LAIR PLATE (1000 METRES)
1. Gemma’s Son – 3. Madam Torio – 4. Iseered Iseered – 9. Red Inferno
3 winning chances here.
Gemma’s Son
Took the step up last prep (can I even say last prep yet?) into open age against the older horses and was far from disgraced, ran some really nice races in the Lee Steere and WA Guineas when very unlucky. Was only 2L off boom filly Clairvoyance in an extremely high rating 1000m race last time he tackled the distance when carrying 4.5kgs extra than that galloper, and to get in here with only half a kilo extra to Madam Torio and 2.5kgs extra on Iseered Iseered, who has only had the 1 start at Kalgoorlie, he really does get in very well. Maps to get the suck run in behind his main danger Madam Torio on the fence and should be afforded the opportunity to get past her late if he’s good enough, which I tend to think he is.
1 Unit WIN
Madam Torio is a bombproof speed machine. Has toyed with them at her 2 starts thus far this prep and just jumps to the front and runs them into the ground in very, very good time. 2 horses have come from her 1st up win and won since at Saturday level in Toscana and Our Danni, while Keep Your Feet and All Day Session, who ran 2nd and 3rd to her last start ran big races last Saturday in that Magical Dream plunge race. Gets an extra kilo to carry and a deeper field here, but will find the top for Parnham from 6 and take a really strong performance from anything else to be run down.
Iseered Iseered is the big Fernie spruik horse that was the world’s worst kept secret up at the Kal Round when plunged in betting and winning like a good thing. The trials since have been good, solid blows and he will only have come on from them but would need to see more to put him in the same category as the other two, do have an opinion though and a big run would not surprise all the same.
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Race 4 – 2:04PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
10. Universal Pleasure – 4. City Circle – 1. Sir Mambo – 5. Paris Report
Battle of the Wilchino formlines this race I feel
Universal Pleasure
The Wilchino form for me is by far the strongest form going into this race here after her demolition job a fortnight ago, and thought this galloper arguably should have beaten that runner 1st up here over the 1000m. Laqdar just let her get it a bit too easily out in front, giving her 4L on the turn, she really wanted to duck in late but was still able to cut her down toward the line to only go down under a length. Has since pulled their pants down to break her maiden at Bunbury over this distance in a performance which rated strongly. There really isn’t a lot of speed engaged here, and from gate 2 Laqdar should be able to find the top here or if something so wishes to press on, take the suck run in behind them and with the 51kgs on her back with the claim, looks to me like one of the better bets on the card.
2.5 Units WIN
City Circle the main danger for mine. Was solid 1st up behind Wilchino but was still 3L adrift of that runner. The draw looks sticky on paper but with the lack of speed here, an aggressive Parnham early could just about land her 1-1 here and put her right into the race. The 6.5kgs she gives to UP could be the telling factor however.
Sir Mambo another that has some really good form in his back pocket. Think the 1100m may be on the sharper side for him and he’d appreciate 1200m a lot more, but does have a less than a length 2nd to Son Of A God and 0.4L 2nd to G1 calibre horse Showmanship on his resume. Gets a really nice map here too for Derrick. No trial leading into this but can race very well when he’s on.
Paris Report trialled up nicely too with a very clean 1st up record for a stable flying.
Race 5 – 2:43PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
1. Cousin Ivan – 2. Comfort Me – 9. Zetorio – 8. Brutus Maximus
Cousin Ivan was a huge 1st up run. Really good trial beforehand had him primed for a big 1st up run and he didn’t disappoint despite the fact it may say 7th on the form guide. Drew wide, Whiting had no option but to snag given he wasn’t all that quickly away, was 6L off the leader and off the track coming around the bend but was chewing the ground late with his big strides. He actually clocked the fastest L200 of the race, and the jump up to the mile here 2nd up works beautifully in his favour, as does the booking of the Wizard in the saddle. Backing Pike to land him somewhere midfield with cover and give him every conceivable. For me, he is so untapped still with just the 5 starts to his name and is the horse with by far the most upside in this field. Is just a little skinny currently at the $3.30 on offer, on-top.
1.5 Units WIN
Comfort Me has been a hard luck story all campaign and probably finds the most suitable race of breaking through here finally. Last start went around in “that” Cryptic Love race, got some cover one out worse than midfield, and just couldn’t bridge the gap on them late when just seeming to peak on his run. Last Of The Line has since come out and won since, so the form reads well. Maps to find the box seat in behind the leader on the fence here for Staples, where he should be able to stalk and peel off the leaders back when the time comes. Big chance to finally breakthrough up to the mile which he is racing like will suit.
Race 6 – 3:20PM WESTERN RACEPIX HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
3. Queen Takes King – 2. My Fair Balentine – 1. Our Idyll – 4. Sowar
Queen Takes King
Huge flashing light run 1st up for this Lindsey Smith staying prospect coming out of that same race as Our Idyll. Trialled up nicely behind Last Of The Line prior to the 1st up run over the mile, where from the widest gate Rawiller snagged him to the rear, tried to cut the corner on straightening, was blocked until coming off heels at the 250m and hitting the line hard for 4th in the race fastest L600/400/200 splits. The rise in trip to the 1800m 2nd up should only be to her liking, Pike engages, should land closer to the speed from barrier 5 with some cover in a race lacking genuine tempo, gets a weight swing on key rival Our Idyll and trusting Pike does his thing, she looks really hard to beat, plumb pick-up ride for the Wiz, huge upside.
2.5 Units WIN
Our Idyll we were with last start when nobbled in a photo by No Surrender when she got a beautiful run in transit and just didn’t let down as she has done in the past, Pike had to pretty much throw her over to even get her close to being in that photo, which to me suggests the extra distance and the jockey change isn’t going to work in her favour, pass for me this time around.
My Fair Balentine is flying for Dan O’Connor, this is her toughest test to date on her winning run however. Gets a lovely map, going from strength to strength perhaps? Wouldn’t rule out.
Race 7 – 4:00PM AUSTRALIA DAY TROPHY (1500 METRES)
7. Luke’s Gold – 5. Son Of A God – 8. Red Publisher – 9. She’s Alight
Luke’s Gold
Reckon this horse should have won his last 3 races, and I’m genuinely not kidding. Maybe I’m talking out of pocket, but there hasn’t been a horse with worse luck than him in the last 2 months in this state.
28th November: 3 deep the trip no cover, goes down to Carocapo (since dual Listed placegetter) by less than half a length, should have won
19th December: Nicoll has cover and decides to peel him out 3 deep and toe up those from back in the field from the 700, goes down half a length to Dig Deep who had the heavens open up and crept up the inside
9th January: 3 deep with cover in transit, pulls its head off as Nicoll is made to strain it back to last as a result of traffic cone Harry Thomas slowing down and shuffling him back, no room at the top of the straight, finally gets out at the 200m and is done a length.
Yet again, draws ugly in barrier 9 (someone just give him a fucking gate ffs) but the way he is going and the way he finished off last week, if he can get any sort of luck (yeah, right) in running, he is going to be in this up to his eyeballs. 1500m a big tick as is the upgrade of Nicoll to Azzopardi.
Son Of A God was remarkably tough last start when parked 3, even 4 deep at times the trip and maps to get a far more economical run in transit for Parnham from gate 4, along with a 2kg weight swing on Dig Deep. I just can’t take $2.10 about him? It all just seems almost too well worked out for him the way this race maps and shapes (cue egg on face when he trots in) but at that price, can’t have him, but can’t tip against either.
Red Publisher another that is far from hopeless here at $20+ some venues. The old boy is in fantastic form and gets significant weight relief. Can bin his last run when he pulled up lame and was still less than 3L off winner Cryptic Love, the start prior he was just overrun late by a Pike special on Friaresque who arguably should have won again last weekend. Went around in Kementari’s AJ Scahill prior to that when finishing less than a length off Dance Music (won Group/Listed races since), 2 and a bit lengths off G1 2nd placegetter Celebrity Queen and in front of last weekend’s listed winner Flirtini. He’s flying the vet, and can give this a shake at $20 odds. Place chance.
Dig Deep can’t have with the weight penalty and the rise in trip, for me a bridge too far.
Race 8 – 4:40PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
9. Mickey Blue Eyes – 14. Regal Poyse – 5. Inflation – 2. Tommy Blue
Mickey Blue Eyes
Massive 1st up run for the state debut and for the new stable when finishing 5th in a blanket finish behind Excellent Dream. Taken back to the tail from the widest gate, got to the extreme outside and rattled home in the fastest L200m split of the day by a considerable way. From gate 4 in a race that is lacking genuine speed out in front should be able to find a spot midfield with cover and show us that evidently powerful sprint he possesses, McGruddy going on the perfect jockey change to help him sit handier in the run.
1.2 Units WIN
Regal Poyse
One of the more intriguing ruins you will see for this galloper last start. Was deadset off the track 4 deep no cover the entirety before as they straightened, O’Donnell tried to duck her back to the inside of horses closer to the rail in one of the more bizarre rides you’ll see. Despite fuck all going right for her in transit, she’s still managed to run home from 2nd last at the 400m into 5th and hit the line in the 3rd fastest L400/200 splits of the entire meeting, which is remarkable when you consider she was essentially running her own race out there in Row Z. If Parnham can get him to settle from barrier 2, I think you’re going to see a different horse who is evidently talented, and think she can win this.
0.8 Units WIN
Inflation should be able to find the fence here despite drawing gate 11 with not a lot of speed drawn underneath and will be well conditioned from the fastest trial you will ever see behind We’ve Got Dreams. If Pateman can roll to the front cheaply, capable of pinching this.
Tommy Blue I can’t trust or even get close to trusting especially where he is drawn here. Probable market overreaction bEcAuSe PiKe Is RiDiNg.
Race 9 – 5:20PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
1. We’ve Got Dreams – 11. Leica Jaguar – 7. Captain Kink – 6. Plutocracy
We’ve Got Dreams
The fastest horse out of the machines in Aus, change my mind. Lane has tuned her up for this 1st up run with firstly a very quiet trial where she was really kept under wraps, before secondly she’s deadset run the fastest 950m trial I can remember seeing, and when it looked like she was starting to come back to them somewhat, Yuill just shook her up and she cantered away from them and through the line for a 5L win. She is just deadset faster than these, and despite drawing gate 11, should be waltzing over to the fence no problem and from there, its going to take a really food performance by one of these to be running her down, hold your breath for the last 50m.
2 Units WIN
Leica Jaguar if one is to run her down, who despite having never raced in this grade, is just in such exceptional form and with the added weight relief, only looms as a better prospect for mine at this level. Maps beautifully given how he is starting for Chris at the moment from 4 and doesn’t have to be too far away.
Captain Kink another also good to see back at the races, not sure it is his race, but really like what he’s done in his career so far and would expect him to go to another level this prep if he’s right.
Plutocracy and Shinju next best.
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Staking Plan
Race 3 Gemma’s Son 1 Unit WIN
Race 4 Universal Pleasure 2.5 Units WIN
Race 5 Cousin Ivan 1.5 Units WIN
Race 6 Queen Takes King 2.5 Units WIN
Race 8 Mickey Blue Eyes 1.2 Units WIN/Regal Poyse 0.8 Units WIN
Race 9 We’ve Got Dreams 2 Units WIN
Total Units Outlayed: 11.5 Units Outlayed
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