Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 19th February

Detonator Stakes day at Ascot this Saturday with a really good start to the card before tapering off towards the back end. The rail goes out to the 12m and so far this season, the rail going out has brought back-markers right into the thick of things.

Race 1 – 12:37PM BELHUS RACING STABLES PLATE (1000 METRES)

4. Hang Glider – 7. Cosmopolitan Girl – 3. Street Parade – 1. Man Crush

Hang Glider

Really good performance 1st up drawn poorly on a track that didn’t suit his run and how the race unfolded. Thought he just peaked a fraction late too there and that race experience/added fitness will bring him on. McGruddy hops off Street Parade (the MM 2YO Trophy favourite) to ride him which is pretty telling. Barrier 1 a great draw and will just need some room at the right time, like the different formlines and the promise he has shown.

1 Unit WIN

Cosmopolitan Girl

Cosmopolitan Girl was huge when tramping deep the trip in the MM 2YO, torrid run but never gave up the fight. Now gets a 2kg swing on Street Parade, the blinkers on, a great draw and CJP in the saddle for Kyra. I have an opinion of her and know the Pearce’s do too, one to keep in mind for sure.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 2 – 1:17PM FABULOUS FIFTY TIM MCKENZIE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

1. Spin The Knife – 3. He’s A Sizzler – 7. Real Danger – 6. State Of Power

Spin The Knife

Spin The Knife on face value was very disappointing last start in the MM 3YO, but on replay he raced very fierce throughout which probably left him out of petrol late, especially up in trip to the 1200m. Pixie Chix may have got the cash there, but if we go back to the start prior STK easily had her measure over 1100m, and actually gets 2kg in his favour from that win. Early signs in his career have shown he’s a much better horse when able to find the top and he maps to be able to do that here. Think he’s going to prove really hard to run down.

3 Units WIN

He’s A Sizzler

He’s A Sizzler is more than capable of grabbing these if the race is run to suit. I thought he was one of the runs of the meeting last start, scooting home in some very slick closing splits on a heavily leaders bias on which it was incredibly difficult to make ground. To only finish 1L off My Baby Blue Jean who got a soft lead out in front was very impressive. Will sit out the back and smoke the pipe and hope they overdo it out in front.

1 Unit WIN

Race 3 – 1:57PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Halatorion – 7. Samsurian – 10. Star Present – 6. Spirited Session

Halatorion

Halatorion was a tough watch for backers (and owners) last start when searching for runs until passing the 150 before finding a gap and savaging the line. You’d think with even luck at the top of the straight he would have gone mighty close. That was a particularly strong race for a Westspeed Platinum and this is no harder. Maps an absolute treat from the gate to take the drop in behind the 2 leaders and think he can be taking this out.

2 Units WIN

Samsurian

Samsurian was another massive run out of the same form race. Found backside after backside in the straight and really took me with how he still hit the line despite being halted for momentum numerous times. The draw hurts, and will need plenty to go right I feel given the lack of tempo engaged. Off that last run he could be flying, and if he gets some luck in running is definitely a winning chance.

0.5 Units WIN

Star Present was huge last start in a CL3 when not able to reel in Kelvin late after being posted 3 deep the trip on a genuine tempo. Never gave up and kept coming and can find the fence here out in front. 1st go at 1400m is the query given he has been run down over the 1200m in the past after leading for home.

Race 4 – 2:36PM HAPPY BIRTHDAY FERGO HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Via Monte – 8. My Baby Blue Jean – 9. Wednesday – 4. Acefire

Via Monte

Via Monte actually beat MBBJ 2 starts ago over the 1000m and meets her better at the weights. Chased hard behind Spin The Knife in a huge rating race and then went to Pinjarra up the straight in a fast run race and was gunned down late by Material Witness, was strong there without being world beating and I don’t think the straight suited him. Double the price of the favourite another main reason why I’m leaning this way.

1.5 Units WIN

My Baby Blue Jean was impressive last start winning over the 1000m defeating Beads and He’s A Sizzler in fast time, but was afforded a very soft lead on a hugely leaders bias day. Maps to find the front again quite softly here and the 1100m should be no issue. Has shown she can burn the candle at both ends which could make life very difficult if not given much pressure for Via Monte.

Race 5 – 3:16PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Panzdown – 9. Mood Swings – 5. Acromantula – 8. Beads

Panzdown

Panzdown resumes here for Simon Miller after an unbelievable prep where he put 4 in a line, rising from a 0 metro win at Bunbury to a dominate 66+ Saturday win and a 2nd placing behind Nerodio in a 78+. He is as genuine a line chaser as you will find. With 3 speed demons engaged who are undoubtedly going to chop at each other out in front here, he can sit back and stay out of trouble for Carbery, hopefully on the back of a horse like River Beau who I have no doubt he can sprint past when they straighten. The recent trial was ominous and will only have brought him on, I think he is going to be extremely hard to hold out.

1.5 Units WIN

Mood Swings

Mood Swings is the other runner that interests me here. Was uncharacteristically slow away 1st up in that Pink Carats race on a day where it was virtually impossible to make ground, was bolting for a run until virtually passing the 100m but the way he got out and attacked the line signalled to me that he could very well be flying (race fastest L200 even with the interference). Drops 4kgs, draws beautifully in 3 and if he corrects his start which is traditionally very slick, he maps to get a superb run stalking a very hot tempo.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 6 – 3:55PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

4. Sluice Box – 6. Tradem’ In – 2. Crescent City – 5. Speedbird

Sluice Box

Sluice Box looks really hard to beat back in grade here. Travelled into it really nicely last week, was just strung up 3 back the fence from barrier 2 and although nothing is mentioned in the stewards report, really wasn’t able to build any momentum from on straightening until passing the 200m and thought he hit the line superbly. This is a weaker field, drawn barrier 5 to keep off the fence and gets Chris Parnham, he’s actually got some tactical speed in a race devoid of any genuine tempo to sit on-speed or just in behind from the draw. Thought he was the stronger of the two late compared to Crescent City who likely rolls forward from 9 with the apprentice, and think he can definitely turn the tables on that runner.

3 Units WIN

Race 7 – 4:35PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

5. Holy Enchantment – 8. Our Norman – 13. Truly Reliable – 2. Chili Is Hot

Race 8 – 5:12PM DETONATOR STAKES (1800 METRES)

15. Paddy’s Shadow – 4. Platoon – 6. True Attraction – 8. Solaia

Race 9 – 5:48PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

5. Wee Ripper – 13. All Man – 3. Chiclett – 16. Trisuem

Staking Plan

Race 1 Hang Glider 1 Unit WIN/Cosmopolitan Girl 0.5 Units WIN

Race 2 Spin The Knife 3 Units WIN/He’s A Sizzler 1 Unit WIN

Race 3 Halatorion 2 Units WIN/Samsurian 0.5 Units WIN

Race 4 Via Monte 1.5 Units WIN

Race 5 Panzdown 1.5 Units WIN/Mood Swings 0.5 Units WIN

Race 6 Sluice Box 3 Units WIN

14.5 Units Staked.

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