Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 12th February

Really good card for Cyril Flower Stakes day at Ascot Saturday on what should be a terrific pad with a south westerly breeze in play generally meaning every horse gets their chance. Keen to get involved.  

Race 1 – 12:37PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1100 METRES)

10. Penny On The Queen – 12. Symphony In Red – 9. Hotorio – 2. Saintorio

Race 2 – 1:17PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Rulelee – 1. Native Chimes – 2. Alien From Mars – 9. Nobel Knight

I think Rulelee looks a really nice horse for Vaughn Sigley. Only won a CL1 and a maiden but its the manner in which she has done it that has really taken me. Covered extra distance in both runs, but its the way she has let down after generally taxing runs that has been the most impressive aspect. Strong and soft through the line on both occasions. Really gives me the feel she can go through the grades and these Westspeed Platinum’s aren’t very strong. Maps to get a stalking run behind Native Chimes and despite the drop back in trip being a slight query, I think she will definitely measure up here.

2 Units WIN

Native Chimes finds the most ideal set-up she could ask for 1st up here. Strolls to the top and dictates without pressure. Has put up some really strong figures in her career but generally builds into her preps. 1st up last prep beat home Mantelli and Proconsent at 1200m and when she finds the top, she is generally really hard to run down.

0.7 Units WIN

Alien From Mars was a monstrous run 1st up (L200m on an impossible day to make ground 10.96secs, flying) but doesn’t seem to get a tempo that will suit here. Really appreciates some pressure to let rip off, but this looks on paper a moderately run race with the dangers lengths in front when they turn for home. The sectionals he is going to have to run from near last to get there might be a bridge too far.

Nobel Knight the one that if it gets out to a mad price I can have something on. Last start ran 8/9 in a high rating 1200m event behind Double Spice, missed the kick there by 3 or 4 lengths, disconnected from the field down the back before tracking right up behind them and running up horse ass for the entire length of the straight, was absolutely bolting! After all of that, has only finished 3.2L off the winner. Horse clearly has its quirks but he also has some very sneaky ability and is still lightly raced, if he puts it all together he can be dangerous in races like these, a far cry from the race he saw last start.

0.3 Units WIN 

Race 3 – 1:57PM JILLIAN ANTARTIS – FOREVER A WINNER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Trade War – 7. River Rubicon – 3. What About Moi – 6. Brother Paddy

Trade War

Does look a race in 2 this.

Trade War deserves a win this prep and the barrier gods have finally been kind to him. Completely unsuited by the crawl, sit and sprint tempo behind Phanta on a day where it was impossible to make ground, was by far the run of the entire meeting. He is absolutely flying, draws a gate to not have to do the bullocking work 3 wide from the 600m like he has been made to do at his past 2 just to stay in the race. Finds cover midfield, big south westerly blowing over his shoulder, I think he should, and will, be taking care of these.

4 Units WIN

River Rubicon the progressive runner who looks like he will only get better as the distances increase. Really soft win 1st up at Mt Barker and looks a genuine Derby type. Very lightly raced and will only continue to improve. In his favour is the map, should find the breeze again here and Trade War will have to gun him down.

Race 4 – 2:36PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

3. Guns Of Navarone – 9. Agent Kensington – 4. Time Scale – 2. Some Sort

Guns Of Navarone

Guns Of Navarone was an unreal return fresh behind Pink Carats. Conditions didn’t suit those running on there in a race dominated by those on-speed, he’s got a really short sharp sprint burst and really like the set-up here in the fact that he can be cuddled up behind a hot tempo for as long as possible before Brad decides to press go. Brad’s finding some form again in the saddle and he will be each way odds all day. Keen.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Some Sort led fresh on debut for the Gangemi’s over a very unsuitable 1200m (genuine 1000m horse). Some of that Gangemi polish and he was still there with 100m to go. The issue here is where he gets to, I think he needs to lead to win and I doubt from 8 he’s going to have the early toe to cross Express Time from barrier 2. Tough ride for a 3kg apprentice.

Time Scale would probably prefer to take a prominent position in running but again, drawn horribly in a race with plenty of speed drawn underneath to do so. Was a really good run fresh from an impossible position but just think this map leaves him a little vulnerable again. If Pat can find a 3 deep line with cover then he can definitely win.

Happy to take on Born To Rule 1st up in a hot contest from a horrid gate, going to need to be seriously good to win from there with the speed drawn underneath her.

Agent Kensington will get the run of the race here for Whiting.

Race 5 – 3:16PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET CHALLENGE STAKES (1500 METRES)

1. Trix Of The Trade – 3. Let’sdeal – 6. Fine Romance – 2. Hear Me Sing

Race 6 – 3:55PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Resortman – 3. Cheval De Vaga – 2. Bruce Almighty – 7. Vital Blast

Resortman

Think I’m going crazy but I think this race sets up really nicely for Resortman. Been racing at a high standard without winning this prep, went back to last after drawing wide last start behind Billy Ain’t Silly in a strong run event, didn’t get a cart into the race and had to duck back between runners in the straight and hit the line incredibly strongly at the end of a high rating 1400m. Drawn a gate here behind 2 on-speed horses who will bowl along at a strong tempo out in front, Chris can sit him closer in running and have him there to challenge at the right time. If Cheval De Vaga’s bubble is going to burst, I think Resortman is racing well enough and gets the right set-up to achieve it.

2 Units WIN

Cheval De Vaga

Cheval De Vaga is as tough as they come, off the canvas last start to get back past Bruce on the line at the end of a brutally run mile. Maps for a very similar run here, but has to carry  and extra 2.5kgs for his troubles and drops back in trip to a sharper 1400m. Has he got enough spring left in his legs to put 6 in a line? Saving on him being able to do so.

1 Unit WIN

Vital Blast terrific win last start but has had a setback since and is now a month between runs, while Bruce is Bruce, in-form and will be there all the way.

Race 7 – 4:25PM BELHUS RACING STABLES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. How’s The Serenity – 8. Secret Deploy – 3. Cristal Dane – 1. Special View

How’s The Serenity

Not a race I’m overly keen on but despite looking awkward on paper, I think this is a great opportunity for How’s The Serenity to open her campaign with a win. Recent trial was terrific ahead of a subsequent winner Saturday winner and although drawn awkward in 10, with In The Bag and Cristal Day to roll across from their wide gates and Special View, Beau Zoom both drawn underneath, if Pat can follow them across I think he’s every chance of landing just in behind the speed, potentially even 3 deep with cover. From there, if he can find that spot, she’s the one I’d want to be on. 0.5L off Comes A Time and Kaptain Kaos from last prep reads exceptionally well.

1 Unit WIN

Special View well placed here and finds the top but will certainly have some company, think she may need the run.

Cristal Dane as honest as the day is long for Dion, just don’t think this race shape suits while Secret Deploy the X factor for a yard that is flying. Only her 2nd race start, beat a handy field on debut and then thought the most recent trial was a really nice piece of work, wouldn’t surprise.

Race 8 – 4:57PM CYRIL FLOWER STAKES (1200 METRES)

11. Triple Missile – 3. Hot Zed – 2. Amasenus – 1. Kissonallforcheeks

Triple Missile

We didn’t see the $4.20 but Triple Missile looks the one here for me, especially getting in on the minimum. Has this incredible ability (much like Miss Conteki) to reel off late splits that no other horse is capable of. He didn’t go there, but I am convinced he would have been seriously competitive in the Winterbottom and some of the races he ran last prep were that of a horse going places higher than just black-type. Gets here with no weight, has a flawless 1st up record, maps for a midfield run with cover sitting back off a strong tempo and for me is the one that blouses them late.

3.5 Units WIN

Hot Zed is just a marvel. Continually wins when the market says he simply can not. On review, his win in the Scenic Blast was even more impressive than first thought. He was actually running away from Amasenus on the line. Penalised 1.5kgs on that runner for that effort but he carries weight no issue and maps to land leaders back on the back of a leader who always wobbles off the fence. If for whatever reason Triple Missile fails to fire, there’s no reason to suggest he wont win again.

1 Unit WIN

Amasenus the other key winning hope. Personally thought Hot Zed was stronger late in the Scenic Blast but Amasenus may have just peaked a fraction due to her freshness being 1st up. Run under the belt will do her a world of good and she also maps a treat smothered away midfield with cover for one final crack at them. She looks like she has come back even better this campaign, which is a scary prospect for her opposition.

Race 9 – 5:34PM FIT TO TRAVEL HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

8. Ginger Baker – 7. Fashion Queen – 3. Sowar – 12. Crescent City

Ginger Baker

Ginger Baker I simply have to follow up on here. Was one of the runs of the meeting last start behind Cheval De Vaga when savaging the line after settling midfield on a day where it was incredibly difficult to make ground. Loved how strong he hit the line at the end of a very solidly run mile and after the claim for Laqdar, drops in grade and gets penalised only 1kg at the weights. 5th up now, rock hard fit, gets a 4kg swing on Fashion Queen, ready to win and maps to land midfield with a smother which has proven to be his sweet spot in running. Great pick-up ride for an in-form apprentice. Really keen to follow up.

2.5 Units WIN

Crescent City is great use of the claim by Grant Williams. Finished only 1.5L and 0.5L off Fashion Queen at her past 2 starts and now gets an almighty 6.5kg swing on that runner here. Maps an absolute treat in the run just stalking the speed for Stanley, just not sure she is up to some of these.

Phanta was gifted a win last start when having an absolute picnic out in front on a horribly leaders bias day. Will have Harry Thomas to contend with here and a step to the mile which I don’t think suits, false favourite.

If Chris Parnham can find Fashion Queen a spot in that 3 deep moving line from barrier 16 of 16, then she certainly isn’t impossible. Probably should have won in different circumstances last start behind Sentimental Queen when Holly zigged when she should have zagged. The draw hurts but if she can get the right run she will be absolutely rattling home.

Sowar was a really solid return behind Burnya To Survive and looks in for a good prep, they went slow there which might have played into his hands being fresh but he’s well performed in this grade before. Should get a nice run from the gate and isn’t impossible.

Staking Plan

Race 2 Rulelee 2 Units WIN/Native Chimes 0.7 Units WIN/Nobel Knight 0.3 Units WIN

Race 3 Trade War 4 Units WIN

Race 4 Guns Of Navarone 1 Unit EACH WAY

Race 6 Resortman 2 Units WIN/Cheval De Vaga 1 Unit WIN

Race 7 How’s The Serenity 1 Unit WIN

Race 8 Triple Missile 3.5 Units WIN/Hot Zed 1 Unit WIN

Race 9 Ginger Baker 2.5 Units WIN

20 Units Staked.

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