Aryna Sabalenka to face Madison Keys in 2025 Australian Open women’s final

The women’s final is set for the 2025 Australian Open. World number one Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus is going for the Australian Open three-peat after previously winning in 2023 and 2024. She will be up against world number 19 Madison Keys of the United States. Keys is in her grand slam final after losing to fellow American Sloane Stephens 6-3, 6-0 in the 2017 United States Open final. Speaking of the U.S. Open, Sabalenka won that major last year too.

In the semifinals, Sabalenka defeated 11th seed Paula Badosa of Spain, 6-4, 6-2. Double faults were a key statistic here as Sabalenka had one and Badosa had four. Sabalenka also broke Badosa four times in nine opportunities, and only gave Badosa one break point chance, of which she did not capitalize.

Keys meanwhile, put together a strong effort in her semifinal, and proved former American tennis player James Blake correct. Earlier in the week, Blake successfully predicted that we would not see a final between Sabalenka and Poland’s Iga Swiatek, the top two players in the world. In Keys’s win, she was victorious over Swiatek, 5-7, 6-1, 7-6. The serve was the “key” statistic here (pardon the pun). Swiatek had zero aces and seven double faults. Keys had seven aces and four double faults.

Sabalenka has won four of five meetings all-time versus Keys. Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of the 2018 Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati, 6-2, 6-4 in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon in 2023, 0-6, 7-6, 7-6 in the semifinals of the 2023 United States Open, and 6-4, 6-3 of the fourth round of the 2024 China Open. Keys’s only win came in the second round of Berlin in 2021, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5.