The AFL team lists are in for St Kilda vs Geelong, with several key selection decisions creating new betting opportunities ahead of tonight’s clash at GMHBA Stadium. From Geelong’s injury-enforced changes to St Kilda’s settled line-up, we’ve analysed the biggest ins and outs that could shape the betting markets.

With player markets, line betting and totals often shifting once the final teams are confirmed, here are the biggest selection impacts punters should know before first bounce.

Biggest Ins – Geelong

Gryan Miers

Miers’ return is a huge boost for Geelong’s ball movement and forward connection. With Jeremy Cameron unavailable, expect Miers to become one of the Cats’ primary creators inside 50, making his disposal, score involvement and potentially goal assist markets more attractive.

Brad Close

Close returns to strengthen Geelong’s forward pressure and should benefit from increased opportunities around goal with Cameron absent. He becomes a genuine value option in anytime goalscorer markets.

James Worpel

The former Hawk adds another experienced midfielder to Geelong’s on-ball brigade. His inclusion gives the Cats extra inside-ball winning ability and further supports Geelong’s midfield advantage.

Jay Polkinghorne

The exciting young forward makes his AFL debut after outstanding VFL form. While replacing Jeremy Cameron is no easy task, Polkinghorne should receive plenty of opportunity inside 50 and could be an interesting roughie in first or anytime goalscorer markets.

Biggest Outs – Geelong

Jeremy Cameron

This is comfortably the biggest selection news of the match.

Cameron’s shoulder injury removes Geelong’s most dangerous forward target and one of the competition’s elite goalkickers. Without him, expect the Cats to rely more heavily on Patrick Dangerfield, Shannon Neale and their midfield to generate scoring opportunities.

Tanner Bruhn

Bruhn’s absence reduces Geelong’s midfield depth and rotations through the centre square, placing even greater responsibility on Bailey Smith, Max Holmes and Tom Atkins around the contest.

Mark Blicavs

Managed this week, Blicavs’ versatility will be missed across multiple positions, although Geelong has enough depth to cover his absence

Biggest Ins – St Kilda

Hunter Clark

Hunter Clark replaces Angus Hastie as St Kilda’s only change and gives Ross Lyon another experienced ball user through the midfield rotation. His inclusion should help support Rowan Marshall and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera around stoppages against Geelong’s strong midfield.

Biggest Outs – St Kilda

Angus Hastie

Hastie is the Saints’ only omission and, while he has shown promise, his absence is unlikely to significantly alter St Kilda’s game plan or betting outlook. Ross Lyon retains one of his most settled line-ups of the season.

Early Betting Verdict

Jeremy Cameron’s injury is easily the biggest takeaway from the confirmed team lists. While Geelong has regained several important players, losing its leading key forward changes the Cats’ attacking structure and places greater responsibility on Bailey Smith, Max Holmes, Gryan Miers and Patrick Dangerfield to generate scoring opportunities.

From a betting perspective, Geelong’s midfield disposal markets receive a boost, while St Kilda’s defensive match-ups become more favourable without Cameron inside 50. The biggest betting angles following the team announcements are Bailey Smith disposals, Patrick Dangerfield anytime goalscorer, St Kilda with the start, and the game total, with Geelong potentially relying less on quick scores and more on midfield dominance to control the contest.

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