The NRL has claimed the richest broadcast deal in Australian sport, but the AFL should not be panicking just yet. If anything, rugby league’s $5.3 billion agreement may have given the AFL the perfect benchmark to chase when its own rights come back to market.
The NRL’s new seven-year deal with Nine, Foxtel and DAZN runs from 2028 through to 2034 and has been hailed as a landmark moment for the code. It overtakes the AFL’s current $4.5 billion agreement with Seven, Foxtel and Telstra, which runs from 2025 to 2031.
On the surface, that looks like a major win for rugby league.
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And it is.
Peter V’landys and the ARL Commission have delivered a monster result, one that gives the NRL enormous financial security and provides the platform for further expansion, increased player payments, stronger pathways and greater investment in the women’s game.
But the more interesting question is what happens next.
Because when the AFL returns to the negotiating table for its next broadcast deal, it will know exactly what number it needs to beat.
The current AFL agreement is worth around $643 million per season. The NRL’s new deal averages roughly $757 million per season. That means the AFL does not need to double its money or produce some unrealistic commercial miracle to reclaim top spot.
It needs an increase of about 18 per cent.
By the time the AFL’s current deal expires at the end of 2031, that is far from impossible.
In fact, it may be likely.
The AFL remains one of the strongest television products in Australia. It dominates in Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, continues to command huge crowds, and has a national footprint that broadcasters still desperately want.
The arrival of Tasmania will only strengthen that position.
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A 19th AFL club gives the league another growth story, another passionate football market and potentially more content to sell. Broadcasters pay for live sport because it remains one of the few products viewers still watch in real time. The more premium content the AFL can offer, the stronger its negotiating position becomes.
Streaming also changes the equation.
When the AFL signed its current $4.5 billion deal in 2022, the market was already shifting. By the time its next rights package is negotiated, streaming platforms will be even more important. If Amazon, Netflix, Stan, DAZN or another major player decides it wants premium Australian sport, the AFL could suddenly have more bidders at the table than ever before.
That is where the NRL’s deal may actually help the AFL.
Once one code resets the market, the other has a new floor to work from. The AFL can point to its larger attendances, national reach, longer season and strong digital engagement when arguing it deserves to sit above rugby league again.
That does not mean beating the NRL is guaranteed.
The NRL has State of Origin, a powerful NSW and Queensland footprint, international growth opportunities and potentially a 20th team that could increase the overall value of its deal even further. Rugby league has also done a brilliant job turning expansion into a broadcast weapon.
But if the question is whether the AFL has a genuine chance of beating $5.3 billion, the answer is yes.
A very strong chance.
The timing is on its side. The market should be larger by then, digital rights should be more valuable, Tasmania will be part of the competition, and the AFL now has five years to shape its next package around the number it needs to beat.
For now, the NRL owns the bragging rights.
It has earned them.
But the AFL’s next broadcast negotiation could become one of the biggest commercial battles in Australian sport.
And if the league plays it right, the NRL’s record may not last as long as rugby league fans hope.
