Collingwood should protect Nick Daicos against Brisbane, even if resting its superstar midfielder risks provoking a six-figure punishment from the AFL.
The Magpies’ 92-92 draw with Hawthorn has effectively locked them into the AFL’s inaugural wildcard round, leaving their final home-and-away match with limited influence on their premiership campaign.
There remains a highly improbable mathematical route into the top six. Collingwood would need to defeat Brisbane, Richmond to thrash Geelong at Kardinia Park and Greater Western Sydney to record a huge win over Adelaide.
Realistically, Craig McRae’s team is preparing for a knockout wildcard final.
That reality has created a fascinating question: should Collingwood risk Daicos against Brisbane simply to satisfy the AFL?
Losing Daicos Would End Collingwood’s Season
David King believes the answer is obvious.
“If you play them and they get injured, you look silly and you sabotage a finals series on the back of a nothing game,” King said during Fox Footy’s coverage.
“There is no way either of the Daicos brothers are playing for me next week, and there’s no way Darcy Cameron is. There’s just no point.”
King’s argument was detailed in news.com.au’s report on the Nick Daicos selection debate, with the former North Melbourne premiership player insisting Collingwood’s priority must be the following week.
“If they fine you $100,000, you say no worries. We’ll take the $100,000,” King said.
“We’re not risking Nick Daicos. We’re just not.
“It doesn’t matter. The result against Brisbane is irrelevant. You don’t have to sell that to the group. They know what you’re doing and it’s all about the week after.”
King then delivered the brutal reality facing Collingwood.
“If Nick gets injured, it is over.”
He is right.
Daicos is not simply Collingwood’s best player. He is the midfielder capable of turning a wildcard team into a genuine premiership threat.
The 23-year-old collected 39 disposals, 10 clearances and 11 inside 50s against West Coast before producing another influential performance in the draw with Hawthorn.
Collingwood has lost only once across its past nine matches, transforming a 5-7-1 start into a legitimate finals campaign. Daicos has been the central figure in that revival.
Risking him in a match that is extremely unlikely to improve the club’s finals position would be reckless.
AFL Faces the Nightmare Its Wildcard System Created
AFL football boss Greg Swann has reportedly warned clubs that deliberately resting large groups of healthy players could result in fines of up to $100,000.
That threat may now be tested.
“It is Greg Swann’s worst nightmare,” journalist Jon Ralph said.
“Greg Swann has said there’s fines of up to $100,000, so what if they say, ‘Thanks Greg, here’s the middle finger salute. We’re going to rest eight’? Then what does Greg do?”
Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt believes the league created the problem by introducing its warning.
“The AFL have shot themselves in the foot sending out that memo,” Riewoldt said.
“I’m not playing Nick Daicos either. They have the blueprint to know that we may lose the battle but we can win the war. Why not rest 10?”
That is the contradiction created by the wildcard format.
Teams finishing in the wildcard positions do not receive the pre-finals bye traditionally enjoyed by every finalist. Collingwood may therefore need to play four consecutive knockout matches to reach the grand final.
The AFL cannot introduce that additional physical burden and then act surprised when clubs attempt to manufacture their own break.
McRae Refuses to Commit to Mass Resting
McRae has not confirmed that Daicos or any other senior player will be rested against Brisbane.
“We’ll manage them if they need to be managed, not just for the sake of it,” McRae said.
“If they’re really sore and they can’t perform, well they won’t play next week. But right now there’s an energy that everyone wants to play.
“Every GPS tells a different story, accumulative load and things like that. We take all of that into consideration. We’ll weigh that all up at match committee next week.”
That measured response is understandable publicly, particularly when the AFL has already raised the possibility of sanctions.
Privately, Collingwood should be examining every possible opportunity to reduce the workload carried by its most important players.
Nick and Josh Daicos, Cameron, Scott Pendlebury and Dan Houston would all be reasonable candidates for management. Jordan De Goey’s recent injury history also demands caution, even if he needs match fitness.
The Magpies are already without several important players. Darcy Moore is out for the season, while Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard, Harry Perryman and Pat Lipinski have also been unavailable.
That makes protecting the remaining stars even more important.
Momentum Is Not Worth the Injury Risk
The argument against resting players is that Collingwood could lose momentum or suffer a heavy defeat immediately before finals.
Brisbane still has plenty to play for and requires victory to strengthen its top-four position. Sending an inexperienced Collingwood team into Friday night football at the MCG could result in a damaging loss.
But momentum can be rebuilt.
A serious injury to Daicos cannot be fixed before a wildcard final.
Collingwood has already demonstrated that its younger players can compete when senior teammates are unavailable. Five Magpies with fewer than 10 games of experience played against Hawthorn, yet McRae’s side recovered from 21 points down in the final quarter to force a draw.
Giving those players another opportunity against Brisbane could strengthen Collingwood’s depth while allowing its stars to recover.
Collingwood Must Put Its Premiership First
The AFL has a legitimate interest in protecting the integrity of the competition, particularly when Brisbane’s top-four position could be influenced by the strength of Collingwood’s selected team.
However, the Magpies’ responsibility is to give themselves the best possible chance of winning a premiership.
If Daicos is carrying fatigue after an enormous season, he should not play.
If Cameron, Pendlebury or Josh Daicos would benefit from a break, they should also be managed.
Collingwood should not rest players merely to make a point, but it should not select them purely because the AFL has threatened a fine either.
The wildcard system has created this situation. The league cannot expect clubs to ignore the competitive incentives sitting directly in front of them.
A $100,000 fine would hurt.
Losing Nick Daicos on the eve of a knockout final would destroy Collingwood’s season.
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