2021 NFL Week 13 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

This NFL season has been brutal but as we head down the stretch we can find some edges in these games.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Season to date

Premium picks:

• Profit/Loss: -7.96 units
• ROI: -5%
• Strike rate: 43%

Free Thursday Night Football Picks:

• Profit/Loss: -13.53 units
• ROI: -27%
• Strike rate: 29%

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

This line may look a strange one with the Browns being favourites but when you really look into the match ups it is hard to see it being any other way. Between a drop in form and injuries, particularly to their best corner, the Ravens just do not match up that well with the Browns here. There strength goes right to the Browns strength. I like the Browns a lot here, even though many will be looking at the other side.

• 2 units Browns -2.5 2.0 with TopSport

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

The Jaguars are just a team that has given up. There are more and more bad stories coming out about Urban Meyer who looks almost certain to be out after just one season and their performances on the field show a team that is barely trying any more. The Titans are still very much in the playoff mix despite all their injuries and they can get a big win here as they get Julio Jones back from injury.

• 1 unit Titans -8.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Dontrell Hilliard any time touchdown 3.0 with TopSport

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Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans

The Seahawks got a much needed win last week after a poor run and while they should beat the Texans here, I am avoiding the game itself. Instead I want to look at Rashaad Penny who should have a large role here. Pete Carroll has talked him up this week after injuries to other players and I often choose to believe the coaches when they say this sort of stuff as most of the time they are not lying. Up against one of the worst run defences in the league, in a game the Seahawks should be leading, and in a team that loves to run the ball, there could be great value in him today.

• 2 units Rashaad Penny any time touchdown 3.7 with TopSport
• 0.5 units Rashaad Penny first touchdown 16.0 with TopSport
• 2 units Rashaad Penny over 37.5 rushing yards 1.83 (with various)

Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom brady has made a career of beating the Bills and this one feels like it will go the same way. The matchups are really bad here for Buffalo and fro  what Brady has been saying in the press recently, the Bucs have been looking ahead to this game for some time.

• 2 units Buccaneers -3.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Bucs/Bills over 54 1.91 with TopSport

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San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals had a big let down game against the Cardinals after a big win over the Steelers the week before. They did the same earlier in the season after beating the Ravens but they bounced back excellently from that and they can do the same again here. Joe Burrow made some costly errors last week but he has shown resilience before and he can do some damage to the 49ers.

• 2 units Bengals +2 2.0 with TopSport

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Expert Tips

• 2 units Browns -2.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Titans -8.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Dontrell Hilliard any time touchdown 3.0 with TopSport
• 2 units Rashaad Penny any time touchdown 3.7 with TopSport
• 0.5 units Rashaad Penny first touchdown 16.0 with TopSport
• 2 units Rashaad Penny over 37.5 rushing yards 1.83 (with various)
• 2 units Buccaneers -3.5 2.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Bucs/Bills over 54 1.91 with TopSport
• 2 units Bengals +2 2.0 with TopSport