The Plunge’s Black Book: Horses Running At Randwick 6/3

The Plunge has 8 black bookers running at Randwick on Guineas day. Incredibly, 6 of them are running in the first 2 races of the day. Click below to see the analysis of these races along with the Randwick Guineas.

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• Best Bets Results: +26.6
• The Plunge’s Black Book: +33.5

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Randwick Race 1 – Wild Ruler

Mamaragan earned a spot in my black book after an impressive trial win back in early February. Trainer John Thompson stated that the 3yo colt would be trained purely as a sprinter after being set for a mile in a failed spring campaign.

Unfortunately Mamaragan was smoked by Wild Ruler and Doubtland in a Canterbury trial a fortnight ago and that will shape how I bet here. Wild Ruler camped just behind Mamaragan and gave him wind burn when they straightened despite the fact he was under hands and heels riding whilst Mamaragan was under the whip.

I can’t see those tables being turned here and despite being short in the market, I think Wild Ruler will show his class. I black booked Andermatt after his win at Rosehill last start but I think going from 52kg in a BM 78 to 56kg in a Listed race will be a bit too much to ask.

Tip: 3 Units Win Wild Ruler @$2 With TopSport

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Randwick Race 2 – Profiteer, Remarque & Home Affairs

As fate would have it the three 2yos I have black booked this year and backed in early Golden Slipper markets all line up in the G2 Todman Stakes. Furthermore they have drawn barriers 1, 2 and 3.

In a slight change of pace I will break down the chances of all three runners.

Profiteer

Profiteer was nothing short of sensational winning the Inglis Millennium by 5 lengths a month ago. He is the deserved short priced favourite in this race and is the $4.8 favourite for the Slipper. My slight concern is the strength of that Inglis race. Pegasi finished 3^rd and subsequently failed to finish 13^th in the Blue Diamond.

He will jump from barrier 1 and make his own luck in front. The last 50m may be the query stepping up to 1200m but if Direct gives him peace in front he may be very hard to run down.

Remarque

There’s been a lot to like about this guy since he first trialed back in December and every time I’ve seen him since he’s grown on me more. He won two trials in impressive fashion before he’s only start, where he was forced to do a lot of work from a wide gate and was extremely green hanging out down the straight.

Tommy Berry said he seemed to be shying at the big screen inside the track but it didn’t stop him from winning by 2L that day.

Since then the Hawkes team have been focused on having him settle. He trialed a fortnight ago and Berry positioned him at the rear before producing a huge run down the outside under a strong hold to fall a stride short of Magic Millions winner Shaquero. If something takes it up to Profiteer, look for Remarque to be making huge ground late.

Punters should note that Remarque is duel nominated in the Black Opal at Canberra on Sunday.

Home Affairs

Home Affairs was sent to the races after just one trial, which is rare to see from the Waller yard. It was a telling factor in his debut run when he kicked clear and looked to have the race won before falling in a massive hole the last 50m and was pipped on the post by Zethus.

With fitness under his belt he was terrific winning the Silver Slipper last start. Unlike most years, I do not believe that the Silver Slipper is the strongest form reference but what Home Affairs does having going for him is he finally gets a dry track where he showed explosiveness in his trial. The 1200m should suit this impeccably bred colt from one of the countries top breeders. He may be a knockout hope here.

It is hard to split all three of these and I could even make a strong case for Stay Inside. There is not doubt the Slipper favourite will come from this race. I love the way Remarque continues to improve and I think the Hawkes team have a well orchestrated plan under wraps with him.

Tip: 2 Units Win Remarque @$4.6 With TopSport

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Randwick Race 6 – Aegon

Aegon came to Australian shores undefeated from 4 runs in New Zealand. The Baker and Forsman yard knows what it takes to come over and win these big carnival races and they seemed to have nailed it here after Aegon streaked some of the countries top 3yo colts in the G2 Hobartville.

It’s hard to see anything turning the tables in the Randwick Guineas. I have long believed that this crop of 3yo colts have been quite even and the way Aegon blitzed them last start went a long way to backing that up.

He should show he is a class above again on Saturday.

Tip: 3 Units Win Aegon @$2.2 With TopSport

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