Super Bowl Preview: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan

5 years ago - Sportingbase

So here we are, the end of an amazing season. This Super Bowl has the potential to be one of the greats and hopefully I can make the picks to top it off for you.

Season so far

Profit/Loss: +15.44 units
ROI: 7%

The other bets…

I will get to the official game pick shortly, but first I want to look at some of the other bets for this one.

First up I am backing a huge game for Leonard Fournette and the Bucs running game. No team has attempted more rushes or scored more touchdowns this offseason and only the Ravens have more yards. The Chiefs have a dreadful rush defence, ranking 31st in DVOA. We could see Ronald Jones to take some carries away but it is Forunette who seems to be the lead back for Tampa. He can have a huge game here. While Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are most likely to win MVP, if he can get rolling as he has shown he can, then we could get an upset and a win at a big price.

1 unit Leonard Fournette most rushing yards 1.75 with TopSport
1 unit Leonard Fournette over 51.5 yards 2.o with TopSport
1 unit Leonard Fournette 1st touchdown scorer 11.0 with TopSport
1 unit Leonard Fournette any time touchdown scorer 2.25 with TopSport
1 unit Leonard Fournette to win MVP 26.0 with TopSport

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The game picks…

The Chiefs are favourites for this one but I have been backing the Buccaneers throughout the season and I am not going to stop now. The Chiefs have faced just one top eight defence (DVOA) to this stage and the Buccaneers have the personnel to cause them some issues. You are never going to stop them, but they are capable of slowing them down as the 49ers did a year ago.

The two offences, while I would give the edge to the Chiefs, are not actually too far apart. DVOA actually has the Chiefs offence ranked below the Bucs. But the defences is where I give a big edge to the team that is playing in their home stadium. I will concede that Kansas City have been better in this postseason than they have earlier this year, but the Buccaneers have so many game changing players on that side of the ball. I think both teams will have success on offence, but Tampa Bay will just get a few more stops to edge this one.