Super Bowl Preview: Odds, Insights, and Predictions

The New England Patriots went into Super Bowl XXXVI led by a rookie quarterback, as 14-point underdogs, against the St. Louis Rams. With the game tied 17-17 and 1:30 remaining on the clock, that rookie quarterback drove his team down the field, setting-up the game-winning field goal. The Patriots won 20-17, and seventeen years ago, a dynasty was born.

Fast-forward to present day, and those two franchises meet again. This time, the aforementioned rookie quarterback plays in his ninth Super Bowl. He is the greatest player in NFL history: Tom Brady will attempt to win his sixth ring against the same team he beat for his first.

Things have changed for the St. Louis Rams too. They are now the Los Angeles Rams for one. In 2001/02, they were aka’d as “the Greatest Show on Turf”. In 2019, the Rams don’t have a clever nickname, but they do have a young coach whose offensive philosophy has shifted the tide of the league, and a young-quarterback who has the opportunity to win his first Championship at 24-years-old: the same age Brady did in 2002.

Obviously, this game has some eerie qualities that support an argument for the existence of “Football Gods”. The cyclical nature of this game and how the Rams have come to bookend Tom Brady’s career seems too wacky to put down to chance. That’s not to mention how close this game was to being the Kansas City Chiefs v New Orleans Saints.

But alas, here we are. With the scene set, let’s delve into the key matchups and insights that are likely to decide Super Bowl LIII.

The Offensive Lines

This may be the least sexy point to make, but the offensive line play in this game is the most crucial battle to be won.

Both the Rams and Patriots offensive lines are elite. In the AFC Championship Game, Tom Brady went virtually untouched, as his line protected him from the Kansas City defence, one of the best in the league at getting to the quarterback. Brady was only pressured on just 15.6 percent of his drop backs against the Chiefs (profootballfocus.com). The Patriots also mesh quick passes with a versatile running game to nullify their opponents’ pass rush. This underrated group of blockers have found chemistry at the perfect time. But they’ll need to be even better than last week, as the Rams defensive line have experienced a similar resurgence.

The Rams are equally (if not more) talented at offensive line. But where the Patriots’ o-line excels in pass protection, the Rams’ o-line success starts on the ground.

The Rams have the best adjusted line yards of any o-line over the past 22 years (fivethirtyeight.com). Adjusted line yards is a metric that shows how much credit the offensive line should get for team rushing yards. But while the Rams have a talented group up-front, that alone can’t explain how they have been one of the best run blocking teams in NFL history. A big chunk of the credit needs to go to Sean McVay and his offensive system. The way McVay runs his offence – his use of 11 player personnel, and the imminent threat of play action passes – gives his team a lighter defensive box to run against. That makes the offensive lineman’s jobs easier (less players to block) and Todd Gurley’s job easier (less players to beat). Belichick will be ready for this, but it’ll be interesting what tactic he chooses to stop McVay’s offence: whether he chooses to load the box, sit back and wait for Goff to throw, or some genius trickery that amounts to a combination of both.

The turnover battle

Not only does this matter for the Pats and Rams as a lone-standing matchup, but for all Super Bowl teams.

It’s no secret that winning the turnover battle correlates with wins in any type of NFL game. All but seven of all the Super Bowl winning teams finished the season with positive turnover ratios (ajc.com).

Both teams have similar profiles in the turnover department. The Rams finished third in turnovers with 30, and the Patriots had just two fewer with 28 (cbssports.com). According to ESPN, the Rams ranked fourth in turnover differential (+11), and the Patriots ranked fifth (+11). Those stats make this game difficult to predict, but both teams have an edge in different areas.

The Rams have the edge in total points off turnovers with 133. The Patriots only have 90. Turnovers not converted into points are a missed opportunity. The Rams, who rank first in the NFL in converting turnovers to points, will have to continue this trend against the Patriots. If there’s one thing you cannot do against the smartest and most disciplined team in NFL history is fail to capitalise on their rare mistakes.

The Patriots have a clear edge in two words: Tom Brady. He’s one of the best decision-makers in NFL history, and in his eight Super Bowl appearances, Brady has only eight total turnovers (six interceptions and three lost fumbles). Five of those eight turnovers came in the three games the Patriots lost. Perhaps more mind-boggling, is the only time Brady has committed more than one total turnover in a Super Bowl game was against the Seahawks, a game in which he threw two interceptions but still won the game. Had Russell Wilson not committed the game-losing interception, the Patriots would’ve lost that game. It is crucial then, that the Rams capitalise on any mistakes Brady, or his teammates make, because those mistakes will not come around often.

Who is the smarter team?

The default answer to this question over the last seventeen years, is the New England Patriots. And it would be unwise to bet against this trend on Monday. But defensive mastermind Bill Belichick has never faced an offensive mind quite like Sean McVay. A couple years ago, Belichick was pushed to overtime by Atlanta offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan. In Super Bowl LI, Shanahan was inches away from besting Belichick, and until halfway through the fourth quarter, called an almost perfect game of offensive football. That shows you the margin of error you have as an offence against Belichick and Brady.

While McVay has been revolutionary in his offensive play-calling this season and last, some have wondered about his big-moment decision-making. He has an uncanny knack to be overly conservative on fourth down. It’s baffling to think of McVay in this sense, considering he is aggressive in every other coaching situation. He gets fired up when his team makes big plays, he likes to go for two on touchdowns, and he loves to gamble on deep throws off of play-action.

This poses a problem for the Rams. You must be willing to lay everything out there if you want to beat the Patriots: Doug Peterson proved that in last year’s Super Bowl. McVay is strong on the X’s and O’s though, as is Belichick. Both coaches will be working hard to surprise each other this week. Them making the right moves at the right time will be key to victory.

Our Tip

The Patriots are rightfully favoured in this game. They are the greatest Super Bowl winning dynasty in NFL history. But the Rams present an interesting challenge.

We like the following bets:

• The Rams +2.5 @ $1.92 – this will be a close game, and the 2.5 line is pretty fair. We like the Patriots to win, but the Rams to cover.
• Jared Goff is great value to win MVP @ $2.75, as is Brady @ $2.05 – in most Super Bowls, the QB gets MVP. You can cover yourself by betting on both: the best QB of all time and promising young QB.
• The best bets of the game lie in the fourth quarter markets:
  • Fourth quarter total +14.5 @ $1.92 – this covers two scenarios: a late-game shootout or a late-game comeback.
  • Fourth quarter field goals Over 0.5 @ $1.48 – a skinny bet, but I will eat my hat if there isn’t one field goal in the fourth.

*All betting odds provided by Neds and are subject to change.