The State of Origin series reaches its climax on Wednesday night as Queensland hosts New South Wales in a winner-takes-all decider at Suncorp Stadium, and you can find our full betting insights and tips available below.
Queensland returns home full of confidence after a dominant Game 2 performance levelled the series, while New South Wales will be desperate to rediscover the form that produced one of the greatest comebacks in Origin history in the opener. With the shield on the line, key personnel changes for both sides and decades of Origin history adding to the occasion, this shapes as one of the biggest matches of the year — and one well worth analysing before placing a bet.
Last 3 Meetings
- Game 2, 2026: Queensland 44 def. New South Wales 24 (MCG)
- Game 1, 2026: New South Wales 22 def. Queensland 20 (Accor Stadium)
- Game 3, 2025: Queensland 24 def. New South Wales 12 (Accor Stadium)
Most Tries – 2026 State of Origin Series
Queensland
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow — 3 tries
- Robert Toia — 2 tries
- Thomas Flegler — 1 try
New South Wales
- Nathan Cleary — 2 tries
- Ethan Strange — 1 try
- James Tedesco — 1 try
Average Total Match Points – Last 10 State of Origin Games
- Queensland: 37.8 average total match points
- New South Wales: 37.8 average total match points
Betting Insights
- The underdogs have covered the line in each of the last nine Origin III matches.
- Each of the last six Origin III matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored at least one try in nine of his 12 previous Origin appearances.
- Bradman Best has scored at least one try in each of his two previous Origin appearances.
- In 13 of the last 16 Origin matches at Suncorp Stadium, the starting Queensland right wing has scored a try.
Our Bets
- $200 NSW -+5.5 – $1.90 With NEXTBET – Bet Here
- $100 Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try – $2.10 With NEXTBET – Bet Here
