Australian racing could receive its first blockbuster of spring if Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi meet in Saturday’s Group 1 Winx Stakes.
Autumn Glow is confirmed as the headline attraction for the 1400-metre weight-for-age contest at Royal Randwick on August 22, while Sheza Alibi has emerged as a possible late addition.
Sheza Alibi’s participation has not yet been confirmed by trainers Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman. The Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 remains another logical starting point for the four-year-old mare.
However, Chris Waller is already preparing Autumn Glow for the possibility that Sheza Alibi will travel to Sydney and create one of the most anticipated clashes of the season.
“Be interesting, be a good race, won’t it?” Waller said when asked about Sheza Alibi potentially contesting the Winx Stakes.
“You’ve got to be prepared for anything.
“There’ll be a horse there ready to take them on, regardless if she’s there or not.
“They’re fit and ready to go. They’ve got to be ready for a strong 1400 metres first-up, so I’m ready for it.”
Autumn Glow Ready to Return
Autumn Glow completed an exhibition gallop at Rosehill on Saturday under regular jockey James McDonald as Waller finalised preparations for her return.
The champion trainer was particularly encouraged by McDonald’s reaction after the workout.
“She’s well. It was great to hear James’ enthusiasm and excitement when he got off her,” Waller said.
“He said with each piece of work she’s done, the gallops, the trials, the exhibition gallop today, he’s felt the change.
“She’s getting close to game day, and she’s in the zone.”
McDonald was equally enthusiastic about the five-year-old’s progress.
“She is ready to go,” McDonald said.
“She seems to be working really well. Every bit of work she has done, she has come on, worked a bit sharper and sharper.”
The comments followed Autumn Glow’s solo exhibition gallop and were reported as part of Racenet’s coverage of Waller’s spring contenders.
Autumn Glow Returns After First Career Defeat
Autumn Glow enters the Winx Stakes with 11 victories from 12 career starts.
She began her career with 11 consecutive wins before suffering her first defeat in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick on April 11.
Autumn Glow started as the $1.30 favourite and appeared capable of maintaining her unbeaten record when moving into contention at the top of the straight.
However, the 2000 metres ultimately tested her stamina. She finished third behind Sir Delius and stablemate Lindermann after weakening inside the final 200 metres.
McDonald described her as “a champion miler” following the defeat and believed the mare had been extremely brave after the field sustained a strong tempo from approximately the 1400-metre mark.
The return to 1400 metres should therefore suit Autumn Glow considerably better.
She has already won at Group 1 level over 1600 metres and established herself as one of Australia’s leading weight-for-age horses before her unsuccessful attempt at 2000 metres.
Sheza Alibi Brings an Extraordinary Record
Sheza Alibi has won seven of her 10 career starts, with two seconds and one third completing an exceptionally consistent record.
The daughter of Saxon Warrior is unbeaten across her past five appearances and has collected consecutive Group 1 victories in the Randwick Guineas and Doncaster Mile.
Her Doncaster performance was among the most dominant of the autumn carnival.
After settling near the rear under Jamie Melham, Sheza Alibi circled the field and defeated Autumn Boy by approximately 4.3 lengths while carrying only 49 kilograms.
The result made her the first three-year-old filly since Sunline in 1999 to win the Doncaster Mile.
Sheza Alibi’s victory was achieved under handicap conditions, meaning a potential meeting with Autumn Glow at weight-for-age would present a substantially different challenge.
That is one reason Moody has refused to assume his mare will immediately dominate older opposition.
Moody Refuses to Get Carried Away
Despite Sheza Alibi’s two Group 1 victories and extraordinary winning sequence, Moody remains cautious about the step into open weight-for-age company.
“This time last year, we thought Treasurethe Moment was the next Winx, and rightly so,” Moody told Racing.com in his latest assessment of Sheza Alibi.
“You come out in your four-year-old season and it’s a whole different ball game. So, she’s got to step up again.
“It’s no good saying, ‘You’ve rated this, you’ve rated that.’ They’ve got to take it out there and put it on the track.”
Moody specifically identified Autumn Glow and Mr Brightside as the horses capable of exposing whether Sheza Alibi was ready for the next level.
“I’m not getting ahead of myself,” he said.
“She is exciting. What she’s done makes her exciting, but she’s got to go to another level.
“You’re chasing around horses like Autumn Glow and Mr Brightside. That’s a whole different ball game.”
Moody also acknowledged that Sheza Alibi enjoyed a considerable weight advantage when she defeated older horses in the Doncaster.
“She obviously beat a lot of nice horses in the Doncaster, but she had the weight advantage,” he said.
“She did it impressively, yes, but again, she had the weight advantage. She had a perfect prep into it.
“When you line her up against Autumn Glow and Mr Brightside, and you’re only getting a couple of kilos rather than eight or nine, it’s a whole different ball game. We’re very mindful and very respectful of that.”
Sheza Alibi Pleases Moody at Pakenham
Sheza Alibi completed a 1000-metre jump-out at Pakenham on August 11, working on rain-affected ground under Luke Nolen.
Moody said the mare recovered quickly and appeared further advanced than expected.
“We’re very happy. She came through it very well and she had a nice gallop,” Moody said.
“Her action was good. She was quite bold through the first part of the trial. She’s probably still a little fresh.
“I was really pleased with the way she recovered. She recovered very quickly.
“By the time she got back to us in the enclosure, she wouldn’t have blown a match out, which was very pleasing.”
Moody and Coleman planned to give Sheza Alibi another serious piece of work before selecting her first-up assignment.
“Everything is up in the air. There’s a race for her every Saturday,” Moody said.
The Memsie Stakes remains the most straightforward option because it would allow Sheza Alibi to begin her campaign at home in Melbourne.
A trip to Randwick would provide a more difficult test, but it would also produce the clash racing supporters have wanted since the autumn.
Two Different Paths to the Top
Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi arrive at the potential showdown through very different careers.
Autumn Glow was bred to be a star, is trained by Australia’s leading Group 1 conditioner and won her first 11 races before being tested beyond her ideal distance.
Sheza Alibi was purchased online for just $10,000 by Central Queensland owner Fred Noffke and began her career outside Australia’s major racing centres before joining Moody and Coleman.
Her value has since increased dramatically, with career earnings exceeding $3.7 million following her Doncaster victory.
The Winx Stakes would place them together under weight-for-age conditions over a distance that should suit both mares first-up.
Autumn Glow remains the established weight-for-age performer and deserves to begin as the horse to beat.
Sheza Alibi must prove her Doncaster dominance was not simply the product of a light weight and perfect preparation.
Moody understands that challenge better than anyone, but he also made his opinion clear following the Doncaster.
“The day will probably come, let’s hope it does for Australian racing, where they meet,” Moody said.
That day could arrive much sooner than expected.
