Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 31/12

Season Results:

• 25 Wins / 42 Losses
• 8.93 Units Profit
• +22.85% ROI

Grizzlies vs Celtics 11:40am AEST

Horrible seeing Ja go down last game, but when high usage guys miss time it creates opportunities elsewhere. Anderson had a career night against the Nets, and although it’s a tougher assignment here he should be busy again. He’s had a 6.9% usage bump sans Ja this season, up to 27.2% (already at a career high) and has posted a 22.3/8.7/2.9 per 36 line (37 min sample). If the second half of the Nets game is an indicator of how they’ll be operating moving forward, he’s going to start at the 4 like usual, then move across to the 3 to allow Clarke/JV combinations while also playing the backup point behind Tyus. So many paths to mins for him, but he’ll likely be playing a bit further away from the basket on the defensive end so leaving out the rebounding today. In that second half, he had a team second 29.7% usage (Brooks 34.3%) with 11 points and 3 dimes. Averaged just 25.5 front court touches in the first 2 games, getting a big jump to 38 against the Nets. Brooks point’s line of 19.5 looks pretty low as well considering the usage heading his way, but not keen to be over-exposed here as they could get smashed now that Tatum is back in. Anderson’s line is low enough to have it done through 3q.

• Kyle Anderson over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Hawks vs Nets 11:40am AEST

Getting a pretty nice price here on Reddish. He’s had 6 steals through the 3 games so far (2,1,3) which he’s done in just 27.3 minutes. He’s not going to play big minutes any more with their team getting healthier, but he did manage to get 3 in just 26 mins last game against Detroit. Different opposition here but I can’t get Lloyd Pierce’s comments about scheming up steals for him so going to have a little bet.

• Reddish over 1.5 Steals @ 2.95 with B365 – 0.4 units

Hornets vs Mavs 12:40am AEST

He was a big buzz guy coming into the season, and looked ok through the pre-season with a team 2nd 25.2% usage. Didn’t post the best per 36 line with 11.6/7.1/4,9 but he shot just 30% from the field and 14% from 3. Borrego said he was out of shape between the last pre-season game and the opener which probably explains a bit of the poor performances. Started off slow with just 21 minutes in the opener but that got bumped to 29 and then 34 in their most recent game so he must be in a bit better shape now. The usage is still there for him at a team second 23.0% and has put up a strong 15.2/9.3/3.4 per 36 line through the season so far. Will get plenty of burn at centre. If his shot starts falling, he’s going to crush this line and he flashed some rebounding and assist upside last game with 12/5.

• PJ Washington over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• PJ Washington over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.2 units
• PJ Washington over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.7 units out.

• Kyle Anderson over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Reddish over 1.5 Steals @ 2.95 with B365 – 0.4 units
• PJ Washington over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• PJ Washington over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.2 units
• PJ Washington over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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