Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/9

Season Results:

• 375 Wins / 254 Losses
• +113.10 Units Of Profit
• 17.06% ROI

Lakers vs Nuggets 11:00am AEST

Was just about to start writing up his rebounds line of over 5.5, which he has covered in each game this series but saw we are getting the RA line just 1 higher at 6.5 (taking a hit on the price). He’s had a dime in each of his last 10 games, with multiple in 3 of them. His minutes were trending up going 20,28,31 before getting in a stack of foul trouble in G4 managing just 16 minutes but was still able to cover this line. He has an 8.2/10.4/2.2 per 36 line in this series, and while I don’t thin he’ll reach 36, Malone trusts him and I think we can expect high 20s. They just got killed on the offensive glass in G4 so we know they are going to be focused on rebounding tonight.

• Millsap over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit

Not sure what changed, but it’s great to see Grant being super aggressive again. His defence has been great all series, as the primary guy on Lebron and also spending some time on AD. Malone is very defensive minded, “If you can’t help us on the defensive end, then maybe you shouldn’t be on the floor” and he really struggled to take Grant out, playing him 30 minutes straight (including HT) ending up playing 42 minutes. Turned in another good offensive game with 17 points. He’s going to continue getting those good looks off Jokic and Jamal, and he showed again he’s capable of a bit more than that. He’s full of confidence.

• Grant over 11.5 Points @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

This series is definitely a lot closer than the 3-1 score suggests and I think we see the best of the Nuggets tonight. Happy to take the free points with possibly the most mentally tough team in the league fighting for their playoff lives, once again. If they can get a little more out of Jokic, and fix up their rebounding they are definitely able to extend this series.

• Nuggets +5.5 @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Nuggets ML @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.3 units

Had long looks at Jamal over 6.5 dimes & Monte over 10.5 Points + Assists but already too exposed to the Nuggets here. KCP 2 3’s should be good again. 

Staking Plan

• Millsap over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit
• Grant over 11.5 Points @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Nuggets +5.5 @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Nuggets ML @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.3 units
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