Results:
- 101.60 Units Profit
- 15.8% ROI
Bucks vs Hawks
A couple of angles here. Tucker was awesome against the Nets, doing exactly what they brought him in for making life hell for KD but there is no KD in this series. There isn’t really even a wing threat for him to guard, maybe Collins but most of his offence is assisted as he doesn’t really do much in isolation. I think we’ll likely see his minutes get dramatically cut this series, and he may even end up losing his starting spot as it might make more sense to match him up with Gallo off the bench. The two games against Miami after Donte got hurt could serve as a decent guide, where he played 23 & 24 minutes. For the playoffs, he’s averaging 0.18 RA per minute, but 0.08 of that comes from offensive rebounds. The two teams Bucks have versed are not good defensive rebounding teams, with the Heat ranking dead last in the playoffs at 66.4% and the Nets 3rd last at 69.8%. Those are both somewhat skewed as Bucks are a good offensive rebounding team, but they were both bad during the regular season too with Miami 19th and Nets 23rd in their defensive rebounding rates. Fairly different matchup here as the Hawks are far better on the D glass, with the 9th ranked DReb% during the regular season at 74.2% and the 6th best during the playoffs at 73.6%. Between the potential loss of minutes and the tougher rebounding opponent I quite like him to stay under here.
- P.J Tucker UNDER 5.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
21,21,15,13,13,11,5 was Forbes minutes log throughout that Nets series. I’m sure Bud won’t be ‘underestimating’ the Hawks, but I’m also sure that he won’t be scared by them which could see him go back to his ways of using a deep bench. Ran his starters into the ground in the Nets series so if the Bucks can get ahead in this game early which I’m certainly expecting then I’m looking for Bud to get his studs some rest. With Donte out, the guard rotation is still fairly thin and although it’s been Pat picking up most of the minutes I think Forbes will get into the game early and if he can knock down some shots there’s a definite path to him getting into the mid 20s. I’ve got him projected at 18 minutes, which is slightly above his playoff average of 16.5. In those 16.5, he’s averaging 8.4 points.
- Bryn Forbes over 5.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
- Bryn Forbes over 9.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
Not at all excited for this series. Bucks just have advantages across the board and am definitely expecting it to be a short one.
Staking Plan – 2.2 units out
- P.J Tucker UNDER 5.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
- Bryn Forbes over 5.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
- Bryn Forbes over 9.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
