Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Been a little lucky the last few days with Bogey foul trouble and Harden staying under today but my word I’ll take it. Kicking myself on a few fronts after today. Was a pretty clear under’s total bet not sure why I didn’t take it. Forbes and Griffin both stayed under too.

Jazz vs Clippers

Have to feel for him a bit but he just doesn’t look right at all. Gets the questionable tag here after the probable most of the series which is a big concern. He only drove the ball 11 times last game which is well down from the 18.2 he averages for the series. He mentioned that it’s the taking off and landing that causes the most pain, so it makes a ton of sense for him to rely on his jump shot more. During the regular season 42% of his FGA came from 3, that number was at 44% against the Grizzlies, but has come up dramatically to 51% in the series against the Clippers. The huge increase has come over the last 2 games however where 65% of his attempts are from 3. Part of this is the defence Clippers are playing but obviously he feels much more comfortably taking 3s right now than driving so look for that to continue tomorrow. Have to think Conley at least gives it a go here in an elimination game which will likely cap Donny’s usage ceiling. Once again was torn between taking his under or his straight 3s and I just can’t get over the value these little multi’s provide.

• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 3.5 3’s @ 4.20 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 4.5 3’s @ 8.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 5.5 3’s @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Bucks vs Nets

Man the pace has slowed waaaaayyy down. The game today had a 93.00 pace which I would have to assume is the slowest pace for any Bucks game all season. Game 5 was played at a 96.00 pace so the trend is clearly down as is usually the case as series go on. I don’t trust either of these half court offences right now as neither team is really getting good looks. With Harden’s inability to run (pretty wild him completely stopping after getting that steal today) it’s going to really turn this into a half court battle in G7. Will probably update this with some sort of alt bet once some more markets come out.

• Under 215.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.5 units

Staking Plan – 2.1 units out

• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 3.5 3’s @ 4.20 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 4.5 3’s @ 8.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell UNDER 33.5 Points / Over 5.5 3’s @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Under 215.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.5 units

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