Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/3

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Pre Break:

79.28 Units Profit
20.32% ROI

Post Break:

3.50 Units Loss
-22.27% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Bucks 10:10am

Repeat matchup here and it’s really hard to imagine a game in which isn’t played in a similar way to yesterday where the teams combined for 244 points. The teams are ranked 1st and 3rd for pace on the season so expect them both to fly up and down again (113 pace last game which is insane, next highest across the league was 106) which just creates an awesome game environment. I’ve had a look at Giannis’ dimes the last few games but really thought Jrue coming back into the mix would have a negative impact. I was wrong, and the role is as good for Giannis as it’s been all season with 11.5 drives and 4.5 minutes of touch time per game over his last 3. In that 3 game span he’s smashed this line with 8,10,11 dimes and he isn’t getting lucky either creating 15.7 potentials which is way up from the 11.8 he averages for the season. He’s coming off his best playmaking game of the season with 11 dimes from 18 potentials and really should be covering this if he gets close to that number of potentials as he averages a shade under 0.52 dimes per potential for the season. Getting a nice price here.

Giannis Antetokoumpo over 6.5 Assists @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit

Kings vs Hornets 10:10am

Very very nice spot for Buddy here in this one. I wanted to take his 3 point line as I’ve mentioned several times how this Hornets team just gives up so many wide open ones (leagues most) as well as giving up the leagues most 3 point attempts at 40.7 per game, but there’s a little mis-price on the points line as it’s priced as Buddy scoring around 83% of his points from behind the arc compared to the true number of 71.1%. Buddy got off a ridiculous 15 3 point attempts (including 11 wide open ones) against these guys 2 weeks ago en route to a 30 point game and he parlayed that into 3 more 20+ point performances the following 3 games. Couldn’t get going along with the rest of the team against the Hawks in a blowout L but gets the perfect chance to bounce back here. Walton said he wants Buddy to chuck and that almost every 3 pointer he takes is a good one so he has the ultimate green light.

Buddy Hield over 17.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

It’s a bit of a strange slate today with a couple of injury related bets not going our way. Rui and Bertans are highly correlated so Rui would’ve made a strong bet today if Bertans sat, but he is in. There was no tracking data available for several games over the weekend which is really frustrating as it’s a big part of my process, so it’s hard to confidently make bets without it.