Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 14/8

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Focusing in on the key games today. Adam Silver couldn’t have scripted a day like we have coming up with 4 teams playing for the 2 play-in spots. Going to be a fun one.

Season Results:

303 Wins / 192 Losses
+102.17 Units Of Profit
19.89% ROI

Bucks vs Grizzlies 6:00am AEST

It was pretty clear against the Celtics how crucial he is to this offence. They completely fell apart in the short time he was off the floor and weren’t able to generate any half-court offence whatsoever. This translated into 42:19 minutes of game time and was pulled with 2:38 to go due to blowout. I think we have to expect somewhere in that range again for him in what will likely be a must win game. Bucks interior defence has been great all season allowing the fewest PITP and with Ja taking 49% of his shots around the rim (94^th percentile amongst PGs-very high) could be tough for him to get going. I think we’ll see a lot of drive & kicks. He’s averaging 9.9 assists on 20.6 potentials throughout his time at Disney but is coming off a 13-dime game (in a blowout loss) where he had 26 potentials. Bucks lead the league in pace which in turn will generate more possessions for him and hopefully a few easy assists in transition. He’s around even money for 10+ most places which I’d still be happy to take, but it is a high number so I’ve gone a bit safer with 9+ on Topsport at the lesser odds. He’s had 9+ in 6/7 games (8 in other).

Ja over 8.5 Assists @ 1.74 with Topsport – 1.5 units

Suns vs Mavericks 6:00am AEST

No reason to jump off now. He’s coming off a 34.1% usage game in 41 minutes and has now scored 35 in 3 straight games, continuing to carry this Phoenix team. He gets a gun matchup here against the Mavs who have the 20th ranked defence in the bubble. They have nothing to play for other than the satisfaction of knocking out the Suns and keeping them from going 8-0. Not sure if they’ll play their guys, but this is a National TV game. Kristaps is questionable. The thing I’ve enjoyed most about his last couple of games is how easily he’s been getting to the line. It shows how aggressive he’s been and has an elite ability to draw fouls. He’s gone 25/26 at the stripe over his last 2 games and it’s a great way for him to keep the points ticking over if his jumper isn’t falling.