Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 11/8

Another profitable day yesterday (albeit small), making it 8 out of 11 since the restart. Not a whole lot to love today as injuries/rest have decimated majority of the slate, but have found a couple to target.

Season Results:

303 Wins / 192 Losses
+102.17 Units Of Profit
19.89% ROI

Raptors vs Bucks 8:30am AEST

It was nice to see him get up to 30 minutes last game, and without Giannis here gets a nice spot. I’m a little worried about Bud resting guys in the second half again, but with Giannis ruled out pre game and the others all named to play I feel a little more comfortable. As he missed camp and the first couple of seeding games, Bucks may be looking to get him some reps for his conditioning. He gets a massive 12.3% usage bump up to 32.9% in minutes without Giannis and has a per 36 line of 27.8/8/7. There is some obvious risk here as highlighted, but his line is low enough there’s a chance of a first half cover. If he does play around 30 minutes again, there is some massive upside from this line too. Worth a speck.

Bledsoe over 15.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
Bledsoe over 19.5 Points @ 3.10 with TAB – 0.2 units
Bledsoe over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pacers vs Heat 10:00am AEST

While Warren has been making all the headlines, Brogdon is quietly doing his thing at an extremely high level. Looks like he’s healthy and has played 32+ in every game, smashing this line in 3 of them. In those 3 games he has averaged 23/6 which is comfortably over this line. This is an important game seeding wise, as the possibility of falling to 6th seed is still there for both teams so expect big minutes for him, coming off a 39 minute game against the Lakers.

Brogdon over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit (would be happy to take the 24.5 elsewhere)

He was pretty bad in the 2 of the toughest C matchups against Philly & Lakers, getting into foul trouble in both but was good in the other 3 games, averaging 18.3/2. Gets an OK matchup here against the Heat who have been about average allowing points to centre’s so far in the bubble. He showed against Phoenix he doesn’t need his 3 pointers to reach this line, just knocking down 1-4 there en route to 17 points. Not too high a usage guy, sitting at 20.9% in the bubble (up from 17.7) but his minutes are locked in so assuming he stays out of foul trouble should cover this.

Turner over 13.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Lakers vs Nuggets 11:00am AEST

To be perfectly honest he’s looked pretty awful his last few games. He’s averaging just 11.3 points over his last 3 and has looked completely disengaged on the offensive end. I was going to steer clear of this game but I think this it’s worth a small play on AD to go off. After his poor game against the Raptors, he came out super aggressive with Lebron feeding him and dropped 42 points. With his over/under down at 23.5, we are getting decent enough odds for him to have a big game here in a matchup he has liked previously with 25,32,35 against Denver this season.