Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 10/10

5 years ago - Sportingbase

Season Results:

389 Wins / 264 Losses
+113.53 Units Of Profit
16.48% ROI

Lakers vs Heat 12:00am AEST

Didn’t pull the trigger on him last game but he continued to post some insane advanced stats with Bam back in the mix. Worth noting that AD guarded Jimmy for a shade over 50% of his minutes and he only managed to go 1-5 with 2 FTs and a total of 5 points in that time. I’m very concerned about his scoring output (don’t at all mind his under 25.5 Pts available on B365) but he can still be impactful. He’s played 43+ in his last 3 games which gives him plenty of opportunity and now the combination of another days rest and being down 3-1 there’s no reason to think he sees less than that here. Jimmy had 24 drives in both G2 & G3 but dipped slightly to 20 in G4 (still very high). Probably a little unfair to compare G4 to his all-time G3, but he posted very similar numbers to his G2 output (no Bam) with 18 potential assists (16 in G2) and 9 minutes of touch time (8.6 in G2). He finished G2 with a 25/8/13 line. Both of his assist and rebounding lines are set at 7.5, and he’s covered that number in both categories for 3 straight games, flashing upside of 13 dimes and 11 boards with combined totals of 21,24,19.

Butler over 15.5 Rebounds + Asssits @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Shortlist;

Butler under 25.5 Points – As mentioned above

Bam over 15.5 Points – Coming into this series it was going to be tough for him but with Lakers making the adjustment to move AD over to Jimmy, it leaves Bam with some favourable matchups – especially in the minutes Lakers are small. He is 4-4 with 4 FTs in 17.9 partial possessions with Lebron guarding him (most of any Laker).

Kuzma, KCP, Markeiff over 1.5 3’s – KCP by far the safest, but getting decent odds for both Kuzma & Markeiff. Lakers are generating so many wide open 3’s at 21.5 per game (a further 16.8 open 3’s) and these 3 guys have all been taking advantage. FWIW Miami are only creating 12.5 wide open 3’s per game and 13.5 open 3’s.

Crowder over 5.5 Rebounds – Miami need him to be aggressive rebounding and he has been, with 7,8,7 in his last 3.