Nathan Cleary may insist no decision has been made, but almost every piece of his future appears to be pointing away from the NRL and towards Europe.
There is no confirmed agreement with a European rugby union or Super League club, and Cleary remains contracted to Penrith until the end of 2027. However, his relationship, ambitions and family circumstances make an overseas move increasingly logical.
Cleary Has Deliberately Left the Door Open
Cleary has never publicly declared that he will leave Penrith.
He has also repeatedly avoided promising that he will stay.
Speaking on Josh Mansour’s Unscripted podcast earlier in 2026, Cleary admitted he was willing to consider possibilities that once might have seemed unthinkable.
“I don’t know. I’m open to it, I’m open to different possibilities, whereas maybe in the past I’ve been locked into things,” Cleary said.
“I’m quite open. That thing about having no regrets drives me.”
The comments, detailed in Zero Tackle’s report on Cleary’s openness to a rugby union switch, were not an accidental remark dragged from him during a rushed post-match interview.
Cleary was discussing how he wanted to feel when his career ended.
“Would I get to the end of my career and think, ‘I wish I tried something different?’”
That is not the language of a player desperate to sign another long-term Penrith contract as quickly as possible.
It is the language of someone genuinely considering another experience.
Mary Fowler Makes Europe the Obvious Destination
Cleary’s relationship with Mary Fowler should not be treated as gossip detached from his football decision. It is a legitimate personal consideration involving two elite athletes attempting to maintain careers on opposite sides of the world.
Fowler plays for Manchester City and has established her club career in England. Their schedules have forced the couple to spend extended periods apart, with Fowler acknowledging how difficult it can be to watch Cleary play in person.
“I don’t get to see him very often,” Fowler said in July.
“I feel so blessed when I do get to go and support him.”
Cleary has already made several trips to England, while Fowler has travelled to Australia whenever her football commitments have allowed.
That arrangement may be manageable for another year, but it is difficult to imagine either person wanting it to become permanent.
If Fowler remains in Europe beyond 2027, Cleary will face a straightforward choice: continue a long-distance relationship while playing in the NRL or move significantly closer to his partner.
That does not guarantee he will leave Penrith, but it gives him a personal reason to consider Europe that no Australian rival can match.
Ivan Cleary’s Exit Changes the Family Equation
One important factual distinction must be made: Ivan Cleary has not yet left Penrith.
The club has officially announced that Ivan will remain head coach throughout the 2026 and 2027 seasons before Peter Wallace takes over in 2028.
According to the Panthers’ official coaching succession announcement, Ivan does not intend to seek another first-grade coaching job after his current contract expires.
That timing is impossible to ignore.
Nathan’s contract ends after the 2027 season—the same moment his father steps down.
Nathan has insisted Ivan’s decision will not determine his future.
“It doesn’t change my position,” Nathan said.
He also praised Wallace and suggested appointing a familiar successor would make it easier for players to remain at Penrith.
“The fact that he’s the one coming in, it probably makes it an easier decision for people.”
Those comments deserve to be taken seriously. Nathan may genuinely be comfortable playing under Wallace.
However, Ivan’s retirement still removes one of the strongest emotional reasons for Nathan to remain at Penrith. It also potentially gives Ivan more freedom to travel and watch his son play overseas.
For most of Nathan’s NRL career, Ivan has been preparing, coaching or recovering from a relentless first-grade schedule. After 2027, he could remain connected to Penrith in an advisory capacity without being required to organise his entire life around the weekly NRL season.
Nathan moving to Europe would no longer necessarily mean his father rarely seeing him play. Ivan may finally have the time to make regular trips.
Cleary Has Already Done Almost Everything in the NRL
Cleary has won four premierships, a Clive Churchill Medal and multiple State of Origin series. In 2026, he added the Wally Lewis Medal after producing the commanding Origin campaign critics had long demanded from him.
He may still want another premiership, another Origin series or an individual honour such as the Dally M Medal, but his legacy no longer depends on any of them.
Cleary disputes the idea that rugby league can be completed.
“The game of rugby league, you never complete it,” he said after winning the 2026 Origin series.
“There’s always things to get better at and always things to improve at.”
He has also reaffirmed his love for the code.
“I’ve always said rugby league is my passion. I’ve loved it for as long as I can remember, so it’s always going to be life for me.”
Those quotes are the strongest argument for him remaining in the NRL.
However, loving rugby league does not necessarily mean spending an entire career at one club—or even in one competition. A move to England’s Super League would allow him to remain in league, while European rugby union would provide the completely different challenge he has openly contemplated.
At 30 when the 2028 season begins, Cleary would still be young enough to adapt to union while carrying enormous commercial value.
He could test his tactical kicking, passing and game management in another code, live closer to Fowler and return to Penrith later if the experience did not satisfy him.
The Contract Delay Says More Than the Public Comments
Penrith reportedly opened preliminary discussions with Cleary earlier in 2026, but he refused to rule out reaching the open market.
“I wasn’t going to close off any avenues,” Cleary said.
“I just didn’t want to really lock myself in too early.”
Cleary has previously indicated that maximising his salary is unlikely to drive his decision. Reports have also suggested he does not want his contract to consume so much of Penrith’s salary cap that the club cannot retain a competitive roster.
That raises an uncomfortable question for Panthers supporters.
If money is not the deciding factor—and Cleary is already certain that he wants to remain—why has the uncertainty been allowed to continue?
Penrith would surely be prepared to make him the highest-paid player in the club’s history. Brian To’o’s confirmed departure after 2027 should also create additional salary-cap flexibility.
The Panthers could present an enormous offer, Cleary could accept it, and the issue could be settled before the finals and well before he becomes eligible to negotiate elsewhere on November 1.
The fact that this has not happened does not prove Cleary is leaving. Contract negotiations involving the game’s best player are complicated, and he may simply believe there is no need to rush while another season remains on his existing deal.
But the delay suggests the unresolved question is not merely how much Penrith will pay him.
It may be whether he wants another NRL contract at all.
Europe Offers Something Penrith Cannot
Penrith can offer Cleary money, familiarity, premiership contention and the opportunity to become the greatest one-club player of his generation.
What it cannot offer is a new life.
Europe would place him closer to Fowler, provide a fresh sporting challenge and allow him to escape an NRL career in which every performance is judged against near-impossible expectations.
Rugby union would offer the biggest leap. England’s Super League would provide the safer transition and allow Cleary to remain in his preferred code.
Neither possibility has been confirmed, and there is currently no credible report identifying a European club that has secured his signature.
This is an opinion based on the circumstances and Cleary’s own words—not a claim that a secret deal has already been completed.
Yet the pieces fit together too neatly to dismiss.
His contract expires when Ivan steps down. Fowler is based in England. Cleary has achieved almost everything available in Australia. He has spoken about avoiding regrets, exploring different possibilities and refusing to close any avenues.
Penrith Should Be Nervous
Cleary may ultimately re-sign and spend his entire career with the Panthers. He has repeatedly said it is difficult to picture himself wearing another NRL jersey, and his connection to Penrith remains profound.
“At this point in time, I’m so happy being a Panther, and I couldn’t see myself in another jersey,” Cleary said.
But he immediately added an important qualification.
“You never know.”
That qualification is now the entire story.
Penrith can offer Cleary more money and another chance to win the NRL premiership. Europe can offer him his partner, a new challenge and a life experience he may never have another opportunity to pursue.
If Cleary truly wants to finish his career without regrets, staying in the same place simply because it is comfortable may eventually feel like the bigger risk.
The Panthers should not assume their greatest player is negotiating only over money.
He may be deciding whether it is time to leave.
MORE NRL NEWS: View Our NRL News Here
