The official team lists are in for the Warriors vs Knights sudden-death semi-final, with New Zealand losing Jackson Ford but Dallin Watene-Zelezniak a genuine chance of making an early return from a broken collarbone. Newcastle have named the same starting 17 that eliminated South Sydney, while Dylan Lucas is pushing for a shock return from a fractured ankle.
Biggest Winners – Warriors
Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Khan-Pereira retains his place on the wing and remains one of the Warriors’ most dangerous finishers. With the Knights possessing plenty of strike themselves, his anytime market is one of the first I’d target.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Jacob Laban
Laban remains in the starting second row, giving Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita a powerful attacking runner close to the line.
Our Tip: Jacob Laban – Anytime Try Scorer
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
DWZ has been named among the reserves less than four weeks after breaking his collarbone. Andrew Webster has confirmed he’s a chance to come into the side, and a return would also mark his 250th NRL appearance.
Betting Impact: If promoted into the final 17, immediately check his anytime try-scorer price.
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Biggest Losers – Warriors
Jackson Ford
Ford’s comeback lasted just 24 minutes against the Dolphins before he suffered an ankle injury. He’s out, with Morgan Gannon coming onto the interchange.
Betting Impact: Ford’s workload markets disappear and the Warriors lose another experienced forward for a sudden-death game.
Leka Halasima
Halasima was a late withdrawal against the Dolphins after suffering a hamstring issue in the warm-up. He’s again among the reserves, but Webster indicated this week that he’s unlikely to play.
Betting Impact: Avoid his markets unless there’s a significant late change.
Warriors Edge Defence
Newcastle have Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew on the wings with Kalyn Ponga sweeping behind the attack. Marzhew is also only one try away from equalling Newcastle’s record for most tries in a season.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Winners – Knights
Greg Marzhew
Marzhew again stands out in the Newcastle try-scorer markets. One more try will equal the Knights’ club record for most tries in a season, and he remains outside Bradman Best on their dangerous left edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Dominic Young
Young retains his wing position after returning from suspension for the win over South Sydney. His combination with Ponga gives Newcastle another genuine scoring threat.
Our Tip: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Kalyn Ponga
With Young, Marzhew, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai all available, Ponga has plenty of attacking weapons around him.
Our Tip: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
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Biggest Losers – Knights
Francis Manuleleua
Manuleleua is currently named to start in the second row, but that could change if Dylan Lucas is cleared. Justin Holbrook said a final decision on Lucas will be made on Saturday, with Manuleleua likely to shift to the bench if Lucas returns.
Betting Impact: Avoid Manuleleua’s workload props until Newcastle’s final 17 is confirmed.
Knights’ Recent Record Against The Warriors
Newcastle have lost six of their past seven games against the Warriors and haven’t won in New Zealand since 2019.
Betting Impact: That’s an important consideration before backing Newcastle purely on the strength of last week’s elimination-final win.
Warriors Left Edge
Newcastle will need to contain Khan-Pereira and Laban, while the possible return of Watene-Zelezniak could further strengthen New Zealand’s outside backs.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
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Early Betting Verdict
There are conflicting trends here. The Warriors have won six of their past seven against Newcastle, and the Knights haven’t won in New Zealand since 2019. However, the venue changes things: the Warriors have lost five of their six games at Eden Park.
These sides also produced a 46-32 Warriors win in Round 26, but with a preliminary-final spot on the line, I’d lean more heavily towards individual try-scorer and player-prop markets rather than expecting another 78-point shootout.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
AKP gives the Warriors genuine speed on the edge and remains their outside back I’d target first.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
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Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Marzhew has the added milestone angle of needing one try to equal Newcastle’s single-season club record.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Young provides the other obvious Newcastle option. With Ponga creating opportunities out the back, he has the finishing ability to capitalise even if the Knights don’t dominate possession.
Our Tip: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Jacob Laban – Anytime Try Scorer
Laban gives us a potentially better-priced alternative to the Warriors’ outside backs and retains his attacking role in the second row.
Our Tip: Jacob Laban – Anytime Try Scorer
Kalyn Ponga – Try Assists
Newcastle’s attacking weapons make Ponga’s creative markets particularly appealing. He has Best, Gagai, Young and Marzhew around him in a must-win game.
Our Tip: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
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Wayde Egan – Tackles
Egan remains the starting hooker and should be heavily involved defensively against a Newcastle pack featuring Tyson Frizell, Cody Hopwood and Mat Croker.
Our Tip: Wayde Egan – Over Tackles
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
AKP is the Warriors attacking player I’d target first.
The Warriors have won six of their past seven against Newcastle, including a 46-32 victory when these teams met in Round 26.
With Tuaupiki at fullback and Martin and Harris-Tavita in the halves, Khan-Pereira remains one of their primary finishing options.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Khan-Pereira 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB for the higher-priced option.
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Value Bet
Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Marzhew gives us the strongest Newcastle try-scoring angle.
He’s one try away from equalling Newcastle’s single-season record, and his combination with Bradman Best gives the Knights a powerful left edge to attack the Warriors.
The Warriors’ strong recent record against Newcastle doesn’t necessarily rule out a Knights winger scoring, making Marzhew more appealing to me than forcing a Newcastle head-to-head play.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Knights Try Scorer: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Warriors Value Try Scorer: Jacob Laban – Anytime Try Scorer
Knights Playmaker Prop: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Warriors Playmaker Prop: Te Maire Martin – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Wayde Egan – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – 2+ Tries
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