The official team lists are in for Sea Eagles vs Dolphins, with several changes creating fresh betting opportunities ahead of kick-off. Manly regain Clayton Faulalo but lose Taniela Paseka, while the Dolphins have retained the same starting 13 that beat Brisbane and welcome Ray Stone back onto the bench.
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Biggest Winners – Sea Eagles
Clayton Faulalo
Faulalo returns from a hamstring injury and goes straight back into the No.1 jersey. His return pushes Lehi Hopoate to the wing, while Blake Wilson drops to the reserves. With Tom Trbojevic still sidelined, Faulalo gets an important opportunity at the back against a dangerous Dolphins side.
Betting impact: Starting at fullback should give Faulalo considerably more involvement than he would receive on the wing, putting his running and attacking player markets firmly on the radar.
Lehi Hopoate
Faulalo’s return shifts Hopoate from fullback back to the wing, but that could actually create an interesting try-scoring opportunity. He retains his place in the starting side while returning to a position where he can focus more heavily on finishing Manly’s attacking movements.
Betting impact: Hopoate loses some of the involvement associated with playing fullback, but his anytime try scorer market becomes worth monitoring from the wing.
Nathan Brown
Brown has been promoted into the starting front row following Taniela Paseka’s knee injury and will play his 50th game for Manly. Paseka is expected to miss at least two matches with an MCL injury.
Betting impact: A move into the starting side could mean a larger early workload for Brown, making his run metre and tackle markets more interesting.
Biggest Losers – Sea Eagles
Taniela Paseka
Paseka is the major casualty from Manly’s Round 24 selections after suffering an MCL injury against Melbourne. Losing him is particularly significant against a Dolphins pack featuring Thomas Flegler, Francis Molo, Morgan Knowles, Tom Gilbert and Felise Kaufusi.
Betting impact: Paseka’s absence weakens Manly’s middle and could make Dolphins forward and attacking markets more attractive if they can establish early dominance.
Tom Trbojevic
Trbojevic remains unavailable with his hamstring injury, although Manly says he is expected back in a week or two. That leaves the Sea Eagles without their biggest attacking weapon for another important game.
Betting impact: His continued absence puts even more responsibility on Jamal Fogarty, Joey Walsh, Tolu Koula and Haumole Olakau’atu to generate points.
Manly’s Forward Depth
Paseka isn’t Manly’s only missing forward. NRL.com’s Fantasy team analysis also lists Ben Trbojevic, Ethan Bullemor and Kobe Hetherington among the unavailable Sea Eagles.
Betting impact: Manly’s depleted middle is arguably the clearest matchup for punters to investigate, particularly against a Dolphins side sitting fifth and pushing for a top-four position.
Biggest Winners – Dolphins
Ray Stone
Stone returns from the neck injury he suffered against the Dragons in Round 22 and has been named on the interchange in place of the injured Kurt Donoghoe.
Betting impact: Stone’s return gives the Dolphins another experienced, high-work-rate option through the middle and strengthens a bench already containing Max Plath, Tom Gilbert and Felise Kaufusi.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
The Hammer remains at fullback in an unchanged Dolphins starting 13 following their comeback win over Brisbane. With Manly missing Paseka and several other forwards, Tabuai-Fidow could benefit if the Dolphins are able to create momentum through the middle.
Betting impact: Tabuai-Fidow’s anytime try scorer and attacking markets stand out as ones to monitor, particularly if the Dolphins are expected to win the middle battle.
Isaiya Katoa
Katoa retains the No.7 jersey and captaincy alongside Kodi Nikorima, giving the Dolphins continuity in the halves. Kristian Woolf has backed the same starting 13 that defeated Brisbane rather than making unnecessary changes.
Betting impact: A settled spine featuring Katoa, Nikorima, Jeremy Marshall-King and Tabuai-Fidow is a major positive against a Manly side forced into changes. Katoa’s try-assist markets could benefit if the Dolphins establish strong field position.
Biggest Losers – Dolphins
Kurt Donoghoe
Donoghoe has been ruled out after undergoing surgery on his thumb and is expected to miss at least two weeks. Ray Stone takes his place on the interchange.
Betting impact: It’s a loss to the Dolphins’ bench versatility, although Stone’s return significantly softens the blow.
Jake Averillo
Averillo has returned from a rib injury through Queensland Cup and has been included in the extended squad, but he has not immediately regained a place in the starting 17. NRL.com notes this would be his first NRL appearance since Round 19 if he is elevated.
Betting impact: Punters should monitor the final team because Averillo’s potential inclusion could alter the Dolphins’ interchange rotation and expected minutes.
Dolphins Edge Defence
Manly may be missing several important players, but the Sea Eagles still possess significant attacking threats through Jason Saab, Tolu Koula, Reuben Garrick, Lehi Hopoate and Haumole Olakau’atu.
Betting impact: The Dolphins’ apparent advantage through the middle doesn’t eliminate Manly’s ability to score from the edges, making the Sea Eagles’ outside backs worth considering separately from the match result.
Early Betting Verdict
The team lists point towards the Dolphins’ attacking players and Manly’s edge weapons as the most interesting betting options. Manly are without Taniela Paseka and remain without Tom Trbojevic, while the Dolphins have retained the same starting 13 that beat Brisbane.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Manly’s depleted middle could create exactly the type of broken-field opportunities Tabuai-Fidow thrives on. If the Dolphins generate quick ball through the middle, The Hammer should be heavily involved.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Selwyn Cobbo – Anytime Try Scorer
Cobbo retains his place on the Dolphins’ wing outside Herbie Farnworth. With Manly missing key forwards, the Dolphins should have opportunities to shift the ball wide after generating momentum.
Our Tip: Selwyn Cobbo – Anytime Try Scorer
Jason Saab – Anytime Try Scorer
Saab’s speed remains one of Manly’s biggest attacking weapons. Jamal Fogarty’s kicking game also gives the towering winger opportunities in the air close to the Dolphins’ line.
Our Tip: Jason Saab – Anytime Try Scorer
Haumole Olakau’atu – Anytime Try Scorer
Olakau’atu is Manly’s standout forward try-scoring threat and remains on the right edge. His power close to the line makes him worth targeting rather than relying solely on Manly’s outside backs.
Our Tip: Haumole Olakau’atu – Anytime Try Scorer
Isaiya Katoa – Try Assists
The Dolphins have retained their Katoa-Nikorima halves combination and the same starting 13 from the Brisbane win. Against a weakened Manly pack, Katoa should receive plenty of opportunities to attack from good field position.
Our Tip: Isaiya Katoa – 1+ Try Assist
Nathan Brown – Tackles
Brown moves into the starting front row following Paseka’s MCL injury. That should increase his early involvement against a strong Dolphins middle featuring Thomas Flegler, Francis Molo and Morgan Knowles.
Our Tip: Nathan Brown – Over Tackles
Dolphins – Team Total Points
This is one of the strongest team-list angles. Manly are without Paseka, Tom Trbojevic remains sidelined and their forward depth is being tested, while the Dolphins have retained a settled starting side.
Our Tip: Dolphins – Over Team Total Points
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the player market I like most from the selections. Manly’s weakened middle could allow the Dolphins to generate quick play-the-balls, and that’s where Tabuai-Fidow becomes extremely dangerous supporting through the middle or sweeping onto the edges.
Value Bet
Haumole Olakau’atu – Anytime Try Scorer
If Manly are going to trouble the Dolphins, Olakau’atu shapes as one of their most dangerous attacking options. He’s a genuine close-range target and could offer considerably more value than the obvious outside-back try scorers.
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Haumole Olakau’atu – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Try Scorer: Selwyn Cobbo – Anytime Try Scorer
Sea Eagles Try Scorer: Jason Saab – Anytime Try Scorer
Playmaker Prop: Isaiya Katoa – 1+ Try Assist
Forward Prop: Nathan Brown – Over Tackles
Team Market: Dolphins – Over Team Total Points
