The official team lists are in for the Panthers vs Roosters qualifying final, with Penrith captain Isaah Yeo returning to the starting side and Scott Sorensen back on the bench. The Roosters have loaded up after resting a host of stars last week, welcoming back James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans, Reece Robson and Victor Radley, while Angus Crichton is set to return after 11 games out.
Biggest Winners – Panthers
Isaah Yeo
Yeo returns to the starting side in his second game back from a pectoral injury, restoring Penrith’s most important link through the middle.
Our Tip: Isaah Yeo – Over Run Metres
Brian To’o
To’o retains his spot on the left wing with Nathan Cleary directing the attack. Against a Roosters side that hasn’t played together in this combination since before Round 27, he’s the Penrith finisher I’d target first.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Lindsay Smith
Yeo’s return pushes Smith from lock into the starting front row alongside Moses Leota. He should remain heavily involved through the middle despite the positional switch.
Our Tip: Lindsay Smith – Over Run Metres
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Biggest Losers – Panthers
Liam Henry
Henry moves back to the interchange following Yeo’s promotion into the starting 13 and Smith’s shift to prop.
Betting Impact: His reduced role makes Henry’s run-metre markets less attractive.
Jack Cole
Cole retains the No.6 jersey alongside Cleary, but this is a major step up against a Roosters side regaining Radley, Robson, Collins and several other frontline players.
Betting Impact: Cleary remains the much stronger Panthers option in the playmaker markets.
Panthers Right Edge
The Roosters regain Mark Nawaqanitawase, Billy Smith and Daly Cherry-Evans, giving them significantly more strike than the side that played South Sydney last week.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Winners – Roosters
Mark Nawaqanitawase
Nawaqanitawase returns to the wing after being rested in Round 27. With Tedesco and Cherry-Evans also returning, the Roosters regain much of the attacking structure that creates his opportunities.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Daly Cherry-Evans
With Sam Walker ruled out for the season, Cherry-Evans takes over at halfback and partners Hugo Savala. His kicking and playmaking become even more important in a finals matchup against Cleary.
Our Tip: Daly Cherry-Evans – 1+ Try Assist
Angus Crichton
Crichton is named on the interchange for his first game in 11 matches after a foot injury. His minutes may need monitoring, but his return gives the Roosters another genuine attacking threat on the edge.
Our Tip: Angus Crichton – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Losers – Roosters
Sam Walker
Walker’s season is over, leaving Cherry-Evans and Savala as the Roosters’ halves combination for the finals.
Betting Impact: DCE becomes the clear Roosters playmaker to target for try assists and attacking involvement.
Angus Crichton’s Workload
Crichton’s return is a huge boost, but he has missed almost three months and is starting from the bench.
Betting Impact: Avoid his run-metre and tackle overs until we see what workload the Roosters give him.
Roosters Against Penrith
The matchup itself is the biggest concern for the Roosters. Penrith have won 12 of their past 14 games against the Roosters, giving the minor premiers a significant recent head-to-head advantage.
Betting Impact: Panthers remain the side I’d prefer in the head-to-head market.
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Early Betting Verdict
The Roosters are dramatically stronger than their Round 27 side, with Tedesco, Smith, Toia, Nawaqanitawase, Cherry-Evans, Whyte, Robson, Collins, Wong and Radley all returning to the starting team. Crichton’s comeback from the bench adds another major weapon.
That makes this much more competitive than simply backing Penrith because they’re the minor premiers, but the Panthers’ 12 wins from their past 14 meetings with the Roosters still carries plenty of weight.
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
To’o remains the Panthers player I’d target first in the try market. Penrith’s spine of Edwards, Cole, Cleary, Kenny and Yeo gives him plenty of attacking service close to the line.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Nawaqanitawase is back after being rested and immediately restores one of the Roosters’ biggest finishing threats.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Casey McLean – Anytime Try Scorer
McLean retains his centre position and offers a more attractive price point than To’o while still playing in Penrith’s powerful attacking system.
Our Tip: Casey McLean – Anytime Try Scorer
Nathan Cleary – Try Assists
Yeo’s return to the starting side should only help Penrith’s attacking shape, while Cleary has Edwards, To’o and McLean among his primary strike weapons.
Our Tip: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Daly Cherry-Evans – Try Assists
With Walker gone for the season, DCE is now the senior organiser and chief playmaker in a backline containing Tedesco, Tupou and Nawaqanitawase.
Our Tip: Daly Cherry-Evans – 1+ Try Assist
Reece Robson – Tackles
Robson returns at hooker after being rested last week and should face plenty of traffic through the middle against Leota, Smith, Yeo and Martin.
Our Tip: Reece Robson – Over Tackles
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
The Roosters’ returning stars make this a much tougher contest, but Penrith still enter with a dominant recent record against them, winning 12 of the past 14 meetings.
With Cleary controlling the attack and Yeo restored to the starting side, To’o remains the Panthers attacking player I’d want to be with.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Brian To’o 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB for the higher-priced option.
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Value Bet
Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Nawaqanitawase is the Roosters player I’d target for value.
He was one of the stars rested in Round 27 and returns alongside Tedesco, Cherry-Evans, Robson and the bulk of the Roosters’ first-choice side.
Penrith are the stronger side on recent history, but the Roosters now have enough attacking quality that I’d rather take Nawaqanitawase in the try market than completely oppose them.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Panthers Try Scorer: Casey McLean – Anytime Try Scorer
Roosters Playmaker Prop: Daly Cherry-Evans – 1+ Try Assist
Panthers Playmaker Prop: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Reece Robson – Over Tackles
Forward Prop: Isaah Yeo – Over Run Metres
Team Market: Panthers – Head-to-Head
Higher-Odds Play: Brian To’o – 2+ Tries
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