The official team lists are in for the Panthers vs Knights preliminary final, with Nathan Cleary cleared to play through a foot injury and Isaah Yeo restored to Penrith’s starting side. Newcastle have rewarded the team that stunned the Warriors by keeping the same squad, while Dylan Lucas should see increased minutes in his second game back from a fractured ankle.
Biggest Winners – Panthers
Brian To’o
To’o has scored nine tries in nine games against Newcastle, making him the standout Penrith option in the try-scorer markets.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Isaah Yeo
Yeo returns to lock after coming off the bench against the Roosters and will play his third game since making an early return from a pectoral injury. His return strengthens Penrith’s attack through the middle.
Our Tip: Isaah Yeo – Over Run Metres
Blaize Talagi
Talagi retains the centre jersey after impressing as a late replacement for Luke Garner against the Roosters. With Garner returning only on the extended bench, Talagi gets another opportunity outside Penrith’s established spine.
Our Tip: Blaize Talagi – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Losers – Panthers
Nathan Cleary’s Foot Injury
Cleary will play, but he’s been managing a bone stress injury in his foot and has been on restricted duties since the qualifying final.
Betting Impact: I’d be cautious with Cleary’s run-metre markets and instead target his passing and try-assist markets.
Luke Garner
Garner returns from a groin injury but has been named outside the starting 17 after Talagi impressed in his absence.
Betting Impact: Avoid Garner’s player props unless he’s promoted before kick-off.
Izack Tago
Tago is still working his way back from a knee injury and has only been named among the reserves.
Betting Impact: Talagi and Casey McLean remain the cleaner Panthers centre options.
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Biggest Winners – Knights
Greg Marzhew
Marzhew needs one more try to equal Dominic Young’s Newcastle record of 25 tries in a season. He remains outside Bradman Best on the Knights’ dangerous left edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Kalyn Ponga
Ponga remains at fullback with Young, Gagai, Best and Marzhew all available around him. Newcastle will need their captain heavily involved if they’re going to break down Penrith’s defence.
Our Tip: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Dylan Lucas
Lucas played only 14 minutes against the Warriors in his return from a fractured ankle but should see considerably more game time this week.
Betting Impact: Lucas becomes one to watch in the tackle and run-metre markets, but I’d wait for his final role before betting.
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Biggest Losers – Knights
Newcastle’s Recent Record Against Penrith
The Knights face a significant historical hurdle: Penrith have won nine of the past 10 meetings between the sides.
Betting Impact: Newcastle player markets appeal more than relying on the Knights in the head-to-head market.
Newcastle’s Young Halves
Fletcher Sharpe and Sandon Smith remain together in the halves and now face Cleary, Yeo and one of the competition’s strongest defensive systems.
Betting Impact: Ponga is the Newcastle playmaker I’d prefer to target rather than relying heavily on the young halves.
Knights Right Edge Defence
Penrith have To’o, McLean and Papali’i among the threats they can send at Newcastle’s edges, while Cleary remains available to direct the attack despite his foot injury.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
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Early Betting Verdict
Penrith come into this fresh after a week off and have won nine of their past 10 against Newcastle, while the Panthers have also won five of their six preliminary finals since 2020. Newcastle, however, arrive with genuine momentum after eliminating South Sydney and then beating the Warriors 12-10 at Eden Park.
The player markets offer the strongest angles, particularly To’o and Marzhew in the try-scorer markets.
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Nine tries in nine matches against Newcastle is difficult to ignore, particularly with Cleary confirmed to play and Yeo restored to the starting side.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
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Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Marzhew is Newcastle’s standout option and sits just one try short of equalling the club’s single-season record.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Blaize Talagi – Anytime Try Scorer
Talagi retaining his position despite Garner returning is significant. He gives us a potentially better-priced alternative to To’o in Penrith’s backline.
Our Tip: Blaize Talagi – Anytime Try Scorer
Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Young gives Newcastle another powerful finishing option and should receive opportunities if Ponga can create space on the edges.
Our Tip: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Nathan Cleary – Try Assists
Cleary’s foot injury makes me less interested in markets requiring him to run the football, but he can still control Penrith’s attack through his passing and kicking.
Our Tip: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Phoenix Crossland – Tackles
Crossland starts at hooker again and should have plenty of defensive work against Penrith’s powerful middle rotation.
Our Tip: Phoenix Crossland – Over Tackles
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
To’o’s record against Newcastle is the strongest individual betting trend from the team lists: nine tries from nine games against the Knights.
Cleary has been cleared to play, Yeo is back at lock and Penrith retain plenty of strike across the backline.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Brian To’o 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB for the higher-priced option.
Value Bet
Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Rather than looking for another short-priced Panthers scorer, Marzhew gives us a strong Newcastle alternative.
He needs one try to equal Dominic Young’s Newcastle record of 25 tries in a season and remains outside Bradman Best, giving the Knights a powerful combination to attack Penrith’s edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Panthers Try Scorer: Blaize Talagi – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Knights Try Scorer: Dominic Young – Anytime Try Scorer
Panthers Playmaker Prop: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Knights Playmaker Prop: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Phoenix Crossland – Over Tackles
Forward Prop: Isaah Yeo – Over Run Metres
Higher-Odds Play: Brian To’o – 2+ Tries
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