The official team lists are in for Bulldogs vs Broncos, with Canterbury sticking with the same starting 13 that faced Penrith while Kurt Mann remains sidelined. Brisbane are also unchanged in the starting side, but Blake Mozer’s concussion forces another reshuffle on the bench as both teams look to finish disappointing seasons on a high.
Biggest Winners – Bulldogs
Connor Tracey
Tracey’s record against Brisbane jumps off the page, with the Bulldogs fullback having scored seven tries in seven games against the Broncos.
Our Tip: Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
Matt Burton
Burton remains at centre and comes into the match with six tries from his past eight games. His current scoring form makes him one of Canterbury’s better options against a Brisbane side sitting 15th.
Our Tip: Matt Burton – Anytime Try Scorer
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Jacob Preston
Preston retains his starting position in the second row and offers a more attractive price than Canterbury’s outside backs. His line-running close to the line keeps him firmly in the try-scoring conversation.
Our Tip: Jacob Preston – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Bulldogs
Kurt Mann
Mann remains sidelined with the groin injury that kept him out against Penrith. He had initially been included among the reserves but is not part of Canterbury’s 24-hour squad.
Betting Impact: Jaeman Salmon retains the starting lock role, while Jake Turpin provides the utility option from the bench.
Bulldogs’ Recent Brisbane Matchup
Canterbury have struggled badly in this matchup. Brisbane have won eight of the past nine meetings, including a 32-12 victory in Round 8 this season.
Betting Impact: I’d be wary of taking the Bulldogs at a short price despite Brisbane’s ladder position.
Bulldogs Edge Defence
Ezra Mam’s recent scoring form presents a genuine threat, particularly with Ben Hunt controlling the side from halfback.
Our Tip: Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Winners – Broncos
Ezra Mam
Mam has scored six tries across his past four matches, making him the standout Brisbane player trend heading into this game.
Our Tip: Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Kotoni Staggs
Staggs remains at centre and gives Brisbane a powerful attacking option against Burton’s side of the Bulldogs defence.
Our Tip: Kotoni Staggs – Anytime Try Scorer
Payne Haas
Haas retains his starting prop role alongside Xavier Willison, with Brisbane’s bench containing several inexperienced forwards. That makes his workload particularly important.
Our Tip: Payne Haas – Over Run Metres
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Biggest Losers – Broncos
Blake Mozer
Mozer is unavailable after suffering a concussion against Melbourne, with Ben Talty added to the bench.
Betting Impact: Billy Walters should retain the primary hooking responsibilities, increasing his appeal in the tackle market.
Preston Riki
Riki was initially named among the reserves after missing five games with a syndesmosis injury, but he has now been cut from the squad at the 24-hour update.
Betting Impact: Jaiyden Hunt and Jordan Riki retain the starting second-row positions.
Broncos Defence
Canterbury still have plenty of attacking strike through Tracey, Kiraz, Burton, Xerri and Tuala, while Stephen Crichton and Lachlan Galvin control the attack from the halves.
Our Tip: Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
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Early Betting Verdict
There’s not much between the sides on the team sheets, which makes the individual player markets more appealing than taking a strong position on the result. Brisbane’s eight wins from the past nine meetings can’t be ignored, but Canterbury have several attractive try-scoring options through Tracey and Burton.
Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
Tracey’s record against Brisbane is outstanding for a fullback: seven tries from seven games against the Broncos.
Our Tip: Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Mam enters the match in even hotter recent form, scoring six tries in his past four games.
Our Tip: Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Matt Burton – Anytime Try Scorer
Burton’s move to centre has kept him close to the action and he’s scored six times across his past eight appearances.
Our Tip: Matt Burton – Anytime Try Scorer
Lachlan Galvin – Try Assists
Galvin remains at halfback with Crichton at five-eighth and has plenty of strike outside him through Kiraz, Burton, Xerri and Tuala.
Our Tip: Lachlan Galvin – 1+ Try Assist
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Payne Haas – Run Metres
Brisbane’s relatively inexperienced bench should ensure Haas remains central to their work through the middle.
Our Tip: Payne Haas – Over Run Metres
Billy Walters – Tackles
With Mozer unavailable through concussion, Walters’ role at hooker looks particularly secure.
Our Tip: Billy Walters – Over Tackles
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the matchup statistic I’d target first.
Tracey has scored seven tries in seven career games against Brisbane, and he remains at fullback where his support play gives him opportunities through both the middle and on Canterbury’s sweeping attacking shifts.
Our Tip: Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Tracey 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB as the higher-priced extension.
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Value Bet
Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Mam’s recent scoring record makes him difficult to ignore despite Brisbane’s poor season.
The five-eighth has crossed six times in his past four games, while Brisbane have won eight of their past nine against Canterbury.
Our Tip: Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Connor Tracey – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Ezra Mam – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Bulldogs Try Scorer: Matt Burton – Anytime Try Scorer
Bulldogs Forward Try Scorer: Jacob Preston – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Broncos Try Scorer: Kotoni Staggs – Anytime Try Scorer
Playmaker Prop: Lachlan Galvin – 1+ Try Assist
Forward Prop: Payne Haas – Over Run Metres
Tackle Prop: Billy Walters – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Connor Tracey – 2+ Tries
