How did Canberra fall this far in less than 12 months?
The Raiders entered 2026 as the reigning minor premiers, but a costly 30-24 defeat against Newcastle has left Ricky Stuart’s side requiring a near-impossible sequence of results to reach the finals.
Canberra’s latest setback captured everything that has gone wrong this season: inconsistent defence, missed opportunities and another damaging act of indiscipline from Corey Horsburgh.
The Raiders are not yet mathematically eliminated, but their realistic hopes of returning to the finals are effectively over.
Their dramatic fall was among the major issues examined in Fox Sports’ Round 23 talking points.
Horsburgh brain explosion kills comeback
Canberra trailed Newcastle 26-24 with less than seven minutes remaining when referee Ashley Klein awarded the Raiders a penalty following an altercation between Horsburgh and Dane Gagai.
The decision appeared to give Canberra a perfect opportunity to attack Newcastle’s line and potentially reclaim the lead.
Instead, the Bunker intervened after Horsburgh was seen slapping Gagai in the face. Canberra’s penalty was overturned, Horsburgh was placed on report and the forward was sent to the sin bin.
Newcastle winger Dominic Young scored his second try shortly afterwards to secure the Knights’ 30-24 victory.
Stuart made no attempt to defend Horsburgh after the match.
“It should have been 28-all, and there was a brain explosion,” the Canberra coach said.
“We got a penalty, and it was a f***ing brain explosion, and that’s the opportunity.”
When asked whether the sin-bin decision was correct, Stuart was unequivocal.
“Of course it was,” he said.
“Everyone knows that, you’re not allowed to do that. It’s in the rules. It’s been in the rules for the last many, many years.”
Raiders pay price for disastrous start
The loss to Newcastle was damaging, but Canberra’s season was not destroyed in one afternoon.
The Raiders began their campaign with a dramatic golden-point victory over Manly before losing four consecutive games.
That run included a 34-point defeat against the Warriors and a 20-point loss to Newcastle. Canberra had lost only five regular-season matches across the entirety of its 2025 minor-premiership campaign.
The Raiders eventually rediscovered their attacking confidence, winning four consecutive games after their Round 18 bye and scoring freely against Canterbury, South Sydney and the Wests Tigers.
However, consecutive defeats against Penrith and Newcastle have brought their late resurgence to an abrupt end.
Canberra can still finish the season with a respectable record, but its margin for error disappeared months ago. The Raiders now require multiple victories and an extraordinary collection of results involving teams above them to sneak into eighth position.
Fogarty departure changed Canberra’s attack
Canberra made a deliberate long-term decision to allow experienced halfback Jamal Fogarty to leave after the 2025 season.
The club instead handed control to young playmakers Ethan Sanders and Ethan Strange.
Both players possess enormous potential, and Sanders has produced several exceptional performances during his first full season as Canberra’s halfback.
He kicked the match-winning field goal against Manly in Round 1 and later starred in the Raiders’ demolition of the Wests Tigers, scoring a try and contributing to five others.
The combination has nevertheless lacked the consistency and game management Fogarty provided during Canberra’s minor-premiership season.
Former Raiders halfback and Fox League analyst Cooper Cronk previously identified the changed dynamic surrounding Canberra’s young stars.
“They have been hunted as opposed to the other way around,” Cronk said during the Raiders’ mid-season struggles.
That may be the simplest explanation for Canberra’s collapse. Opponents entered 2026 prepared for the speed, aggression and unpredictable attack that carried the Raiders to first place last year.
Canberra was unable to evolve quickly enough.
Defence suffered dramatic decline
The Raiders’ defensive regression has been just as damaging as the changes in attack.
Canberra conceded 506 points during the 2025 regular season despite finishing first, but its ability to win close matches and overwhelm opponents with attacking pressure masked some of those defensive weaknesses.
Those problems became much harder to hide in 2026.
The Raiders repeatedly conceded 30 points or more during the opening half of the season and struggled to reproduce the intensity that defined their rise to the minor premiership.
There were also continued discipline problems.
Horsburgh has been involved in several costly incidents throughout the campaign, including an early sin bin against Cronulla and a dissent penalty against the Dolphins that Cooper Cronk labelled the “ultimate sin”.
His latest offence was the most damaging because it arrived when Canberra’s entire season was on the line.
It also comes amid continuing uncertainty about the forward’s long-term future, with Brisbane reportedly emerging as a potential destination for Horsburgh.
Stuart ready to turn towards youth
With Canberra’s finals chances almost extinguished, Stuart indicated he could use the remaining rounds to evaluate the next generation.
“I will play some young blokes that I want to have a look at,” Stuart said.
The Raiders coach will balance those opportunities against Canberra’s NSW Cup finals campaign, with the reserve-grade side still having its own premiership ambitions.
Canberra already possesses one of the youngest and most promising spines in the competition.
Sanders, Strange and Kaeo Weekes can still become the foundation of another premiership challenge. The Raiders also have emerging players including Noah Martin, Savelio Tamale, Jed Stuart and Owen Pattie pushing for larger roles.
That talent means 2026 does not need to become the beginning of a prolonged decline.
However, the Raiders can no longer describe this season as a temporary premiership hangover. Going from first place to almost certainly missing the finals represents a genuine collapse—and the final month must now be used to ensure it does not happen again.
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