NFL Week 8 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

A huge week last week. Both two unit plays won and if it wasn’t for a Browns missed extra point we’d have gone a perfect 3 for 3 on game picks. We pushed so it didn’t put too much of a dampener on what was a superb week.

Season Results:

46% strike rate
-3.33 Units Of Profit
-5% ROI

Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions, Ford Field

The Colts are a bit of a strange team this year. They are 4-2 but you could argue they could, or should, be sitting at 5-1 or 2-4. They have an excellent defence and Philip Rivers has shown he can still get it going, even if those inaccuracies we saw last year are not getting any better. A big piece of news for this is the return of Darius Leonard, arguably their most important defensive player.

The Lions stole a win last week that I am sure you all saw, but the offence could struggle against Indy’s stout defence. And on the other side of the ball, Matt Patricia’s defence really struggles to get to the QB, which could allow Rivers lots of time to get it done.

1 unit Colts -3 2.07 with TopSport

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills, Orchard Park

It has been a long, long time since the Bills were favoured at home to the Patriots, but that run comes to an end this evening. The Patriots continue to struggle with injury. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry will be missing on offence while Stefon Gilmore and Kyle Dugger miss out on defence. They are four important players for the Patriots. Cam Newton has really struggled and that won’t get any easier with a decimated group of receivers.

The Bills have been excellent this season. Their only losses have come to the Chiefs and Titans, but the second of those can be forgiven after a weird week of preparation due to Covid concerns in Tennessee. They should have far too much for New England. If you took the names away from these teams you would say the Bills roster, even more so with the injuries, is far better than their opponents. Four points just isn’t enough.

The gameplan would almost certainly have been Gilmore guarding Stefon Diggs. Without him the secondary may struggle to contain him.

2 units Bills -4.0 2.0 with TopSport
1 unit Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown 2.38 with TopSport

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns, FirstEnergy Stadium

I do believe in the Browns, but with no Odell Beckham Jr the offence is completely changed. All of a sudden you need Jarvis Landry to step into a role he isn’t suited to, Rashard Higgins will play more and the whole offence will be shuffled. The defence has lots of good pieces but continues to struggle.

The Raiders have one of the better passing offences in the league and can really take advantage of the Browns’ struggles. They only have three wins but by DVOA they have played the toughest schedule in the entire league. They are a team that could well be underrated.

2 units Raiders moneyline 2.05 with TopSport

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks, CenturyLink Field

The Seahawks have an excellent offence. Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level and they are almost certainly one of the best teams in the NFC. Here comes the but… the defence is awful. Ranked 30th in DVOA pass defence already and they will be without their two best corners and Jamaal Adams is questionable. Kyle Shanahan is one of my favourite coaches in the league and he will destroy them.

Jimmy Garoppolo is only going to improve as his ankle continues to heal. He has been excellent in their past two games and can take apart this secondary. Shanahan is an offensive genius and he will find a way to take this defence apart. The 49ers can certainly slow Seattle down, even if they couldn’t stop them entirely.