NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections

NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 20/10

4 years ago - Sportingbase

We’re back for another year as we look to make it 3 straight years with over 100 units of profit.

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Bucks vs Nets 10:30am AEST

A somewhat fitting way to kick things off with Lopez here. This is predominantly a minutes play as Bucks come into this game without both Portis and Ojeleye and of course will be without Tucker who they lost in the off season. Other than Mamukelashvili (who is on a two-way), Lopez is the only healthy centre on the roster. We’ve seen several times the Bucks go small which they will have to do for periods here against a small Nets team, but the problem is compounded since they are so thin at PF. If Giannis moves to centre then they would either have to play Thanasis or Nwora at the 4 which is fine in stretches but I can’t see Bud going with that group instead of Lopez to close so I would be surprised to see him play under 30 here. He looked fine in the pre-season where he was at 13.5 points per 30 minutes and I prefer the matchup for him against a more traditional centre like Claxton (or even LA who isn’t very mobile at this point) as opposed to the small line-ups the Nets used in the playoffs. Very happy with his minutes floor here, but just due to the lack of front-court bodies he might be able to push closer to the 35 range. He’s more than capable of putting together big games.

Brook Lopez over 11.5 Points @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit
Brook Lopez over 19.5 Points @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pretty easy bet here as this line is just too low and we really shouldn’t be getting 1.80. The last 3 seasons he has averaged 5.9, 5.6, 5.9 assists with a 28% assist percentage or better in all of them. He only played 64 minutes during the pre-season but was bang on that 28% mark averaging 7.4 dimes per 36. He should see somewhere in the 32-34 minute range as it’ll likely be a close game. His assists numbers were slightly better at home last season too.