Results:
- 58.33 Units Profit
- 11% ROI
- View Results Spreadsheets
A few reasons I’m off Harden today. I actually think the 76ers have been playing decent ball and these games have been closer than the scores suggest. They are just 10/49 on open or wide open 3s for the series which makes it very hard to win basketball games. Doc mentioned he liked the shots they were getting so I don’t think they are going to change anything too much schematically (obviously Embiid). Harden had two games to try take over but he just can’t get himself good shots against good defences anymore consistently (has done a good job of not forcing things imo). Has stayed under in both games with no Embiid and some worrying tracking stats. Harden has always been one of the highest tough time players in the league, even on a team with KD and Kyrie but in G2 Maxey actually eclipsed him with 7.7 (vs 7.2) minutes on ball. Maxey is clearly more suited to this matchup so expect Doc to lean into him in the non Embiid minutes which is important as during the regular season Harden was at just 16.7 points per 36 WITH Embiid and 31.1 points per 36 without him (these splits are what scared me off betting him in G1-G2, but it’s now clear Harden can’t keep that workload up for an entire game).
Minutes play predominantly here. Strus has stayed under this in both games this series, but today there are several paths to him losing minutes. Miami have been playing some smaller lineups either with Tucker at C or Jimmy/Bam in the front court with 3 guards. Miami usually take Bam out early and bring him back with the second unit so if they stick to that there’s no way Tucker can just slide to centre against Embiid which will bring Dedmon in. They might find some time to go small while Embiid is off but it’ll likely be limited. Herro has been balling and Heat have done a few things to protect him defensively so I think Spo might be comfortable keeping him out there and we saw Dipo close last game as Spo was really talking up his on ball defence (important against Philly’s strong guards). There’s a very good shot two of Herro (offence), Tucker (front court size), Dipo (on ball defence) close over Strus in this one and we end up seeing him in just the mid 20s.
Staking Plan – 2 units out
- James Harden UNDER 21.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
- Max Sturs UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
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