NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 30/11

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Nuggets vs Heat 12:10pm AEST

Tough spot for Monte today with Jokic coming back and playing against one of the toughest defences for opposing PGs. Despite Jokic being out for the last 4 games, Monte only covered this line twice, averaging 16.3 PA across that span. Gets the brutal matchup today against the Heat who give up the fewest points to PGs and 8th fewest assists. It’s likely going to be an awful game environment and Malone has been talking up Campazzo a fair bit, combined with the return of Bones to likely take away the minute upside for Monte. Surprised this is plus money.

• Monte Morris UNDER 16.5 Points + Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1 unit

Rockets vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

Shai’s role in his return was ridiculous and against this bad Rockets D, he could have a huge game here. He had an insane 26 drives against the Wizards, and he should absolutely crush if he’s going to be driving that many times against this soft soft Rockets interior. Shai is top 10 in the league for PNR ball handler possessions per game and the Rockets ranked first in opponent PNR ball handler points per possession. Should be a pretty good game environment with the 2 points spread and the Rockets ranked 1st in pace. Both KPJ and Wood have both greatly benefited from no Jalen and no Theis in the lineups and I’d expect one of them to find a way to go off today, but it’s tough matchups for both with Dort likely on KPJ and the Thunder been quite good protecting the paint against centres (mainly getting torched by perimeter guys).

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit

Cavs vs Mavs 12:40pm AEST

Allen is rolling with 19+ in 3 straight games, despite the return of Mobley in the last one. I wrote the other day how good the numbers are with Garland/Rubio and he gets another great matchup here against the Mavs who have been getting destroyed by the roll man all season long due to their aggressive coverages, giving up the 4th most PPP on the 7th highest frequency resulting in the 3rd highest points per game.

• Jarrett Allen over 13.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Spurs vs Wizards 12:40pm AEST

Keldon has had a bit of an up and down season especially from a minute stand point but today sets up like he could be set for a big work load. No McDermott or Vassell here helps open up the wing minutes but more importantly the Wizards don’t have a ‘big’ PF. There are a bunch of teams this season running double big lineups and Pop doesn’t love him out there in those situations, but today against Kuzma and limited wing options he has huge minute upside like we just saw against the Celtics where he played 38. When playing just 30+ minutes this season he’s covered this line 8/10 times. Wizards defence aggressively limits 3 point attempts, but only 22% of his points are from behind the arc so not a major concern, and he should be able to crush them in the paint. Despite having a strong overall defence, the Wiz do give up the 2nd most points to PFs.

• Keldon Johnson over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4 units out

• Monte Morris UNDER 16.5 Points + Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jarrett Allen over 13.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Keldon Johnson over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit

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