NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 25/10

Rough luck again on Saturday. Robbie getting up to 29 minutes and not cashing a big surprise and the lines have appropriately come up. OG goes 4-18 and still just falls 3 PRA short, LaMelo first half foul trouble and little blowout getting up to just 29 minutes falling 1 PA short, Shai just never looked like cashing as they got rolled and a bad read on Obi. Rough start to the season but majority of the bets we’ve taken have been good, just results going against us. It’ll turn.

Results:

• -6.58 Units Loss
• -38% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Knicks vs Magic 10:10am AEST

Pretty happy to fade Kemba here as the usage and role just hasn’t been there to start the season. He’s averaging just 10.5 points and 2.0 assists through 2 games, despite shooting 66% from 3. The advanced numbers are rough with just a 16.7% usage rate, 20.0 front court touches, 5.0 potential assists and 6.5 drives per game. There are a couple of paths to low 20s minutes here, with the obvious blow-out risk and if any of Rose, Quickley or Burks get hot off the bench then Thibs may roll with them to close.

• Kemba Walker UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit

Lakers vs Grizzlies 12:40pm AEST

It’s been an awesome start to the season for Ja but he’s had a pair of favourable matchups and today is shaping up to be tough. A big part of his early season success has been his shot profile as he’s been super aggressive attacking the rim. 72% of his FGA have come from in the paint, and he’s been shooting a ridiculous percentage in the restricted area going 16-21 for 76.2%. The role is great, but AD is so bloody good in the paint it’s hard to imagine he keeps up that insane efficiency. He had a big efficiency drop on 0 days rest last season, from 48.7 eFG% down to 44.1%.

• Ja Morant UNDER 25.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 2.0 units out

• Kemba Walker UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Ja Morant UNDER 25.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
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