NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 19/11

Oct 15, 2021; New York, New York, USA; Washington Wizards guard Aaron Holiday (4) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Results:

• -8.26 Units Loss
• -11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Heat vs Wizards 11:40am AEST

Dinwiddie is out here and the lines have adjusted accordingly, but I think they’ve got too many minutes pencilled in for Holiday. Holiday was the big beneficiary of Beal missing two games just this week, playing 34,26 minutes in those two, but replacing Dinwiddie is much different and going back to the one game he missed earlier in the season, Neto and Holiday split the PG minutes down the middle with only 9 seconds of overlap. Holiday isn’t very productive when he’s on the court at just 0.54 PRA per minute (32 minutes at that rate busts us) and gets a brutal matchup against the Heat who give up the 4th fewest points per game overall, and the second fewest to PGs. They are also bottom 10 in assists and rebounds to PGs. Was a little concerned about Gafford being out, as it would mean Kuzma plays some 5 to open up a few wing minutes, but with him in they should get 48 centre minutes between Gafford/Harrell which tightens things up elsewhere.

• Aaron Holiday UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

* Line got smashed between time of writing and Gafford news, so pivoting a bit. He’s only averaging 0.2 RA per minute on the season so we are getting a similar edge.

• Aaron Holiday UNDER 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Clippers 12:10pm AEST

No Batum is huge for Zubac’s minutes here as he (or Morris, also out) is essential to the Clippers small ball unit, meaning Zu should get close to 30 here in a great matchup. He had 14 second half minutes last game against a relatively small Spurs team (checked out a minute early due to blowout). Grizzlies defence has been awful getting torched everywhere, but they are giving up the second most points to centres, largely due to giving up a stupid 1.35 PPP to the roll man (second also, behind Suns). Bad defences usually give up a stack of paint points and thats no different with the Grizz giving up the 6th most in the league. When playing 25+ minutes this season, he’s covered this 6/7 times.

• Ivica Zubac over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 2 units out

• Aaron Holiday UNDER 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Ivica Zubac over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit

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