NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections

Results:

-9.20 Units Loss
-10% ROI
View Results Spreadsheets

Heat vs Magic 11:10am AEST

He’s not going to hit 7 3s again but this is such a good spot for him. I doubt Herro plays here after the downgrade to doubtful and they can probably afford to be cautious here after getting the win in Philly and going up against a G League team. The role is awesome and as I mentioned last game without Herro, there isn’t any minute downside (other than fouls). This is an extremely interesting spot because Lowry has played 37 and 38 minutes the last two games, so against a lesser opponent they might be able to keep his minutes down which increases Gabe’s upside. This game could very well be over and done with by half time, and if thats the case Vincent will be out there the entire garbage time. From the 9 available players, 5 will need to play garbage time and you can feel pretty dam confident that Lowry and Tucker won’t be out there, while Dedmon the likely other guy to sit leaving Vincent, Strus, Robinson, Okpala and Haslem/Yurtseven. Vincent is the only ball handler in that group so should have a chance to really clean up.

Gabe Vincent over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
Gabe Vincent over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Gave Vincent over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Celtics vs Warriors 11:40am AEST

He’ll likely be coming into the starting lineup here which means he has paths to more minutes, especially on this depleted Celtics roster, but his rates are going to drop significantly. He takes a huge hit when he shares the floor with Tatum and Brown, putting up just 13.2 points per 36 on 18% usage, which is down from 32% with just Tatum off, 26% with just Brown off, and 35% when they are both off. Brutal matchup against the Warriors defence, who are likely going to give GP2 more run today without Poole, which is going to make things tough for the Boston guards. I don’t like this game environment at all.

Dennis Schroeder UNDER 17.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Despite saying I don’t like this game environment and this being a brutal matchup, no Horford and Williams really opens up the minutes ceiling for Robbie. Without Horford he’s 12/12/2 per 36 and he could get close to that mark here as it’s going to be very hard for Udoka to play Freedom as the backup C, and he’s lost his small ball options in Grant and Parker. Purely a minutes/opportunity play here with the low line.

Robert Williams over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Blazers vs Hornets 2:10pm AEST

A scary prospect backing a Dame over this season but jeez this could not be a better spot for him. He’s hasn’t had the best time of things since returning from injury shooting just 31% from the field, but the role is great of course and I thought physically he has looked quite good. The three games he’s versed Wolves with Pat Bev and the 6th best half court defence, the Suns with Mikal and the 3rd best half court defence and the Grizzlies with Brooks who have the 2nd best defence over the last 2 weeks. Gets the dreeeeam matchup here against the Hornets and their 124.5 defensive rating over the last two weeks (worst in league, next worst is 121). He’s going to play huge minutes as the Blazers have now lost 7 on the trot and 9 of their last 10.

Damian Lillard over 33.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Celtics vs Warriors 11:40am AEST

Moody is getting the start here but I still expect to see a lot of GP2. He’s averaging 10.1 PRA per game on the season in just 14 minutes. It’s very hard to see him get less than that here, with a fair bit of upside.