NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 16/11

Results:

• -7.10 Units Loss
• -17% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Pelicans 11:10am AEST

This should just be absolute smash for Dinwiddie today. The line is up there, but his numbers without Beal are stellar and he gets arguably the best matchup in the league right now. In 145 minutes without Beal he’s 25/8/8 per 36 as he takes on a drastically different role. Am expecting Hart to go to Kuzma which will likely leave Devonte on Dinwiddie. Pelicans currently have the 29th ranked defence, giving up the 8th most points and second most rebounds to PGs. The dimes should be there but we haven’t really seen the upside so happy to take the bit lower PR line.

• Spencer Dinwiddie over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Celtics vs Cavs 11:10am AEST

I jumped off him after he covered for us against the Raptors as the role wasn’t as good as the previous game, but maybe it was just the Raptors defence that put him off because he’s been awesome since. He’s averaging 0.95 PRA per minute over the last 4 games since Jaylen went down and gets a nice matchup today against the Cavs. Although their overall defence has been quite good they have been getting hurt by guards giving up the 5th most points to PGs. The tracking stats are all where we want them over the last 4 with 7.5 minutes of touch time, 88 touches, 22.0 drives (only behind Shai at 24.3) and 31% usage. No Allen today for the Cavs is going to make finishing inside much easier for him with less length around.

• Dennis Schroder over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit

Blazers vs Raptors 2:10pm AEST

Nassir has completely won over Billups of late and he essentially spent his entire presser yesterday talking about him, which is not good news for Covington who has been thrown under the bus by Billups a couple of times (mentioned that he wants Covington to be a defensive stopper, even though he’s a far better help/team defender than on ball). Pretty brutal stretch of games for Covington not getting above 23 minutes or 10 PRA in his last 3 games.

• Robert Covington UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit

Lakers vs Bulls 2:40pm AEST

Probably just too high. He’s only averaging 6.1 PR per game in 17 minutes on the season, and on the b2b here with an almost healthy guard rotation I have him closer to 15 minutes tonight. The Bulls defence has been surprisingly good, especially in the second unit and he’s likely going to be seeing a lot of Caruso here making it tough on him. Like u14.5 PRA too.

• Rajon Rondo UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4 units out

• Spencer Dinwiddie over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dennis Schroder over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Robert Covington UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Rajon Rondo UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit

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