NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 14/1

PORTLAND, OREGON - OCTOBER 04: Otto Porter Jr. #32 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after being fouled by the Portland Trail Blazers in the fourth quarter during the preseason game at Moda Center on October 04, 2021 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Results:

• 13.12 Units Profit
• 6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Bucks 11:40am AEST

Betting on the Warriors role players does scare me a little with Kerr’s wonderfully wacky rotations but front court minutes need to be filled here. It’s not a great spot for JTA at all, hence the move to the bench and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him out of the rotation here. Otto probably has the safest minutes off the bench and as we all know the way to beat this Bucks team is by hitting 3s as they just give up so many (most in the league per game by a wide margin at 41.7). Warriors have been ice cold from downtown across the board but Otto should get some 3s off if he gets into the high 20s minutes again like last game. Decent price for such a good shooter who could get some volume. *The minute restrictions make it tough, but this could be a big Klay explosion game.

• Otto Porter Jr over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.60 with B365 – 0.9 units
• Otto Porter Jr over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Nets vs Thunder 12:40pm AEST

This does just seem a bit too high. He’s not the most productive player as we got a very good look at him for a 3 game stretch when the Nets were extremely shorthanded. In that 3 game stretch he averaged 11.6/7.3/2.0 in a whopping 38 minutes. He only covered this line in one of them which was an OT game finishing with 29 PRA but included in this sample is a game where none of the big 3 played (KD played the first 2), and he still couldn’t get it done with just 9/5/2 in 38 minutes. Harden is going to get him some good looks but the Nets have a few more capable wing bodies today with Bembry, Brown, Thomas, Duke Jr and James Johnson. Some combo of Sharpe, Griffin and Millsap will eat the entire 48 at centre (hopefully one of them gets some 4 minutes to squeeze the wing minutes). He’ll likely start but there are several paths to him playing sub 30 minutes here. Don’t like this game environment at all either and I think OKC could sneak this one.

• Kessler Edwards UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 2 units out

• Otto Porter Jr over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.60 with B365 – 0.9 units
• Otto Porter Jr over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Kessler Edwards UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 – 1 unit
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