Twenty-four stayers face the starter in the $10.2 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday, 3 November, with the race set for 3:00pm AEDT. Rain on Monday was expected to push the track into the Soft 5–6 range. This isn’t a tips piece. It’s a runner-by-runner look at why each horse can win and why it can’t, so you can make up your own mind.
1. Sons And Lovers (GB)
Barrier 3, 57.5kg, Dylan Browne McMonagle (Joseph O’Brien).
Why he can win: The six-year-old has genuine staying class. He won over 3000m in Saudi Arabia early this year, then led all the way to win the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil (2800m) at Longchamp in July. He also ran second carrying 63.5kg in the Kilternan Stakes last start, and gate three gives him every chance to find a spot.
Why he can’t win: He’s topweight, and he’s had only one start at 3200m without winning. Browne McMonagle is a late replacement after his intended ride, Defiantly, was scratched.
2. Trustyourinstinct (IRE)
Barrier 18, 57kg, James McDonald (Joseph O’Brien).
Why he can win: The seven-year-old has won twice in Ireland this year, including the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m) over Al Riffa with a last-to-first finish. O’Brien’s Cup winners Rekindling and Twilight Payment both won that race too. He has a win from two starts at 3200m, and McDonald, who won the 2020 Cup on Verry Elleegant, suits his hold-up style.
Why he can’t win: He was a well-held fourth behind Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger. Barrier 18 means he’ll need luck from the back, and he still has to settle in after the trip.
3. Knight’s Choice
Barrier 2, 56.5kg, Robbie Dolan (John Symons & Sheila Laxon).
Why he can win: He’s a proven Cup winner. He and Dolan caused the 2024 boilover, and he returned from injury this spring with a close third behind Pinhole in the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m). Barrier 2 should let him save ground.
Why he can’t win: He was never a factor in a messy Caulfield Cup, finishing 14th and beaten 10 lengths. Only Peter Pan (1932, 1934) has won the Cup in non-consecutive years.
4. Middle Earth (GB)
Barrier 1, 56.5kg, Mark Zahra (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: He ran third in last year’s Cup, and this campaign has been built around getting back to 3200m. He made ground from well back for ninth in the Caulfield Cup. Zahra has won the Cup twice (Gold Trip, Without A Fight), and the inside gate is ideal for saving ground.
Why he can’t win: He’s had five unplaced runs this campaign, including a seven-length eighth in the Cox Plate. He’s also back in a handicap with 56.5kg, and he has to prove he’s still at last year’s level.
5. Vauban (FR)
Barrier 22, 56.5kg, Jordan Childs (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott).
Why he can win: He’s a classy, experienced Cup horse who improved to sixth last year. He’s had a European-style build-up with one run since his Doomben Cup third, should be fitter for the Geelong Cup, and is expected to handle any give in the ground.
Why he can’t win: He finished 14th, 11th and sixth in the past three Cups, and was only fair when ninth in the Geelong Cup. Barrier 22 is tough, and no nine-year-old has ever won the race.
6. Enfjaar (IRE)
Barrier 8, 56kg, Ray Dawson (Roger Varian).
Why he can win: His Caulfield Cup run was one of the best by an international. He raced handy and fought hard for third behind Kingswood, finishing ahead of Cox Plate winner Cosmic Crusader. He also led all the way to win the Glorious Stakes (2412m) at Goodwood, and barrier 8 gives Dawson options.
Why he can’t win: He only stepped up to staying trips in August, so 3200m is a big unknown.
7. Royal Supremacy (IRE)
Barrier 21, 56kg, Ben Allen (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: At his best he’s a genuine on-pace galloper. He led all the way to win the Q22 (2200m) ahead of Cup winners Half Yours and Knight’s Choice, then did the same in the JRA Cup in September. Rain should help him.
Why he can’t win: He weakened badly to finish 15th, beaten 17 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup, and he was 15th in last year’s Cup. Barrier 21 makes leading costly.
8. Wine Dark Sea (GB)
Barrier 23, 56kg, Damian Lane (Harry Charlton).
Why he can win: The lightly raced five-year-old won three of four in England this year, including the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2671m), where he made all and beat Dubai Honour. He should improve from his first run in Australia, and Lane is a big-race rider.
Why he can’t win: He was caught wide early in the Caulfield Cup and faded to 11th after hitting the front on the turn. Barrier 23 threatens a similar trip, and he’s untried at 3200m.
9. Asterix (NZ)
Barrier 6, 55kg, Jye McNeil (Chris Waller).
Why he can win: He won three races at Group and Listed level last campaign. This spring he ran third in the Naturalism Stakes, and he made some late ground in the Caulfield Cup. Waller (2021 winner) trains him, and barrier 6 is handy.
Why he can’t win: He was last in the Turnbull and 12th in the Caulfield Cup. His only run at 3200m was fourth in the 2024 Auckland Cup, and only three eight-year-olds have won the Cup.
10. Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)
Barrier 19, 55kg, Wayne Lordan (Joseph O’Brien).
Why she can win: She ran a brave second to Half Yours in last year’s Cup, so she’s proven at the trip and the track. She also won the Lillie Langtry Stakes (2816m) at Goodwood in August.
Why she can’t win: She trailed the field in the Kilternan Stakes last start and carries 3.5kg more than last year. Barrier 19 is awkward, and mares have a thin recent record: only three of 50 since 2005 have finished top three.
11. Juja Kibo (IRE)
Barrier 14, 55kg, Sam Clipperton (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: The six-year-old is in career-best form with back-to-back wins. He won The Metropolitan (2400m) comfortably over Soul Of Spain, then the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) over Mr Monaco and Strictly Business. Clipperton keeps the ride and is reported to be bullish.
Why he can’t win: He’s still to prove he can run 3200m in elite company. Barrier 14 means a mid-race position, and he meets Mr Monaco 2kg worse.
12. Hopewell Rock (IRE)
Barrier 15, 54.5kg, Zac Lloyd (George Boughey).
Why he can win: The lightly raced five-year-old keeps improving. He won a Goodwood handicap (2816m) over Small Fry, who went on to run second in the Geelong Cup, and ran a close second in the Ebor (2786m) at York. He handles rain-affected ground.
Why he can’t win: He’s untried at 3200m, and his form came at handicap level rather than Group level. He also has to adapt to Australian conditions from barrier 15.
13. Onesmoothoperator (USA)
Barrier 13, 54.5kg, Declan Bates (Tim Fitzsimmons).
Why he can win: He won the 2024 Geelong Cup and the 2025 Moonee Valley Cup, so he has proven class in Victorian staying races. This is his third Cup.
Why he can’t win: He finished 11th, beaten 9.4 lengths, in the Geelong Cup with no excuses. He was 12th and 16th in his past two Cups, and no nine-year-old has won the race.
14. Soul Of Spain (IRE)
Barrier 5, 54.5kg, Tommy Berry (Chris Waller).
Why he can win: He ran second in the Sydney Cup at his only attempt at 3200m, so the trip suits. Barrier 5 lets him settle where Berry wants, and a wet track should help.
Why he can’t win: His spring form is below that level: seventh in The Metropolitan, then eighth in the Caulfield Cup after a mid-race move that left him tired in the straight.
15. Zahrann (IRE)
Barrier 11, 54.5kg, Ben Melham (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: He was highly rated in Ireland and bought as a Cups horse. The five-year-old stallion won the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) easily, then made steady ground for fourth in the Caulfield Cup from well back. Melham ran second in the 2017 Cup on Johannes Vermeer.
Why he can’t win: He was beaten well on a heavy track in the Turnbull and never really threatened at Caulfield. 3200m is a step up.
16. So You Are
Barrier 7, 54kg, Rachel King (Bjorn Baker).
Why he can win: He’s won four in a row: the Tatts Cup, the Colin Stephen Quality, the ATC St Leger (2600m) and the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday. Few runners will be fitter. From barrier 7, King can put him near the lead, he’s a tough grinder, and a wet track won’t bother him.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t raced against elite company, and he’s backing up from Bendigo six days earlier.
17. Future History (GB)
Barrier 12, 53.5kg, Jamie Melham (Gregory Hickman).
Why he can win: He’s been running honestly this spring: second to Royal Supremacy in the JRA Plate, fourth in the Herbert Power and ninth, beaten 3.6 lengths, in the Moonee Valley Cup. Melham won last year’s Cup on Half Yours.
Why he can’t win: He only got into the field after withdrawals. He was 15th at his only 3200m run in the 2023 Cup, and no nine-year-old has won the race.
18. James J Braddock (GB)
Barrier 24, 53.5kg, Craig Williams (Joseph O’Brien).
Why he can win: This is only his eighth start, and he fits the profile of a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old on the way up, like Rekindling and Cross Counter. He ran third in the English Derby, and he was running on strongly without much room in the Kilternan Stakes, which suggests the trip will suit.
Why he can’t win: He was well beaten in the Irish Derby. Barrier 24 is the widest gate, and he’s never run beyond about 2400m.
19. Kizlyar (IRE)
Barrier 20, 53.5kg, Beau Mertens (Joseph O’Brien).
Why he can win: Stamina won’t be a problem. He beat Defiantly in a tight finish over 4013m at Royal Ascot in June, then ran second in the Irish St Leger Trial (2816m). He gets in on a light weight.
Why he can’t win: He was a late inclusion after Defiantly was scratched, and he raced well below expectations at his Australian debut, beaten nearly four lengths in the Moonee Valley Cup. Barrier 20 doesn’t help.
20. Point Of Law (GB)
Barrier 9, 53kg, Ethan Brown (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: The four-year-old stallion won the Geelong Cup (2400m) at his Australian debut, a run the ratings experts rated highly. Before being bought from King Charles, he won the Bahrain Trophy and ran fourth over 2846m at Royal Ascot. He’s the kind of improving European three-year-old that has a strong recent Cup record, he has a light weight and barrier 9, and Brown stays on.
Why he can’t win: He’s still young and untried at 3200m, and it’s a big jump from Geelong to a 24-horse Cup.
21. Strictly Business
Barrier 4, 53kg, Dean Yendall (Thomas Carberry).
Why she can win: She won the Victoria Oaks (2500m) at Flemington a year ago and ran second in the SA Derby in the autumn. Barrier 4 gives her a good position.
Why she can’t win: She’s struggled in open company this spring, finishing 12th in the Herbert Power and last of 16 in the Moonee Valley Cup. She hasn’t won since the Oaks, and Michael Dee got off her on Saturday.
22. Mr Monaco (GB)
Barrier 16, 52.5kg, Jabez Johnstone (a) (Ciaron Maher).
Why he can win: He won the Bart Cummings (2500m) to earn his place, then ran a close third to Juja Kibo in the Moonee Valley Cup, and he meets that horse 2kg better. Rain won’t worry him.
Why he can’t win: He was a disappointing 11th in the Sydney Cup at his only 3200m start. Johnstone is having his first Cup ride, and no apprentice has won since 1948.
23. Zakouma
Barrier 10, 52kg, William Pike (Grahame Begg).
Why he can win: He’s stoutly bred and won the Andrew Ramsden (2800m) at Flemington, so he’s proven over a long trip at the track. His spring has been built around this race, with sixth in the Naturalism and fifth in the Herbert Power. Pike comes in after winning the Cox Plate.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t been sighted in a top-level staying race this spring, and he was last in the Crystal Mile on his latest start, though that was well short of his trip.
24. Shockletz (NZ)
Barrier 17, 51kg, Harry Coffey (Ciaron Maher).
Why she can win: She won the Archer Stakes (2500m) at Flemington easily. Since then she’s run sixth in the Herbert Power with good closing sectionals and a fast-finishing second in the Tesio Stakes. She carries 51kg, the same weight her sire Shocking carried to win in 2009, and Maher compares her to High Emocean.
Why she can’t win: She’s a mare from a wide gate, and her rider is in doubt. Coffey had collarbone surgery after a Derby Day fall and needs medical clearance, with Michael Dee reported on standby.
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