Twenty-four stayers line up in Tuesday’s $10.2 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington, with the race set for 3:00pm AEDT. This is our predicted finishing order for every runner, counting down from 24th to first, with a short note on why we have each horse where it is. It’s an opinion, not a certainty, and the Cup rarely goes to script. Placings further down the order are hard to split. Rain was forecast for Monday, so check the final track rating and scratchings before the race.
24th — Strictly Business
She won the Victoria Oaks at Flemington last year and drew well in barrier 4. Since then she’s been 12th in the Herbert Power and last of 16 in the Moonee Valley Cup, and Michael Dee has come off her. She has the least recent form in the field, so she’s last for us, though the order across the bottom few is close.
23rd — Onesmoothoperator (USA)
He won the Geelong and Moonee Valley Cups in past years, but he was 11th and beaten nine lengths in this year’s Geelong Cup with no excuses. He finished 12th and 16th in his two previous Cups. We don’t think he’s competitive at this level.
22nd — Asterix (NZ)
Barrier 6 should get him a nice spot. He finished last in the Turnbull, though, and was 12th, beaten seven lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. On that form he has a lot to find, and his only run at 3200m was fourth in an Auckland Cup.
21st — Future History (GB)
He’s been running honestly, with a second in the JRA Plate and fourth in the Herbert Power, and Melham won last year’s Cup. He only got into the field after withdrawals, though, and was 15th in the 2023 Cup, his only run at 3200m. He’s on the outer for us.
20th — Royal Supremacy (IRE)
He’s likely to lead or race near the lead, but from barrier 21 that will take some work early. He weakened to 15th, beaten 17 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup and was 15th in last year’s Cup. Rain helps him, but we expect him to set the pace and then fade.
19th — Vauban (FR)
He’s a classy horse with Cup experience, but his last three Cups resulted in 14th, 11th and sixth. He was only fair when ninth in the Geelong Cup, and barrier 22 makes his task harder. A soft track may suit him. We don’t think a nine-year-old will improve enough to trouble the leaders.
18th — Wine Dark Sea (GB)
He won the Geoffrey Freer in England, but he was caught wide and faded to 11th in the Caulfield Cup. Barrier 23 suggests he could get a similar run here, and he’s untried at 3200m. With Lane on board and the chance of improvement from that run, he’s not without hope, but we think the gate will cost him.
17th — Kizlyar (IRE)
He’ll run out the trip, having won over 4013m at Royal Ascot. He was close to four lengths below his best on his Australian debut at the Valley, though, and barrier 20 is no help. At his best he’ll be among the best stayers late, but we expect him to lack the speed to get into the race.
16th — Knight’s Choice
He won the 2024 Cup and came back with a good third in the Herbert Power. He then finished 14th, beaten ten lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. Barrier 2 helps, and he could go well if he runs back to his best, so he’s a real chance of finishing higher. We’ve placed him on his latest run.
15th — Soul Of Spain (IRE)
He ran second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m, and he has a handy gate in barrier 5. His spring form has been below that level, though, with seventh in the Metropolitan and eighth in the Caulfield Cup. He should stay the trip and run on, but we expect him to finish around midfield.
14th — Zakouma
He’s stoutly bred and won the Andrew Ramsden (2800m) at Flemington, and Pike comes in after winning the Cox Plate. His spring runs have been fifth and sixth in lead-up races, and last start in the Crystal Mile was well short of his trip. He should run the distance, but we doubt he has the class to finish in the top ten.
13th — Zahrann (IRE)
He made ground for sixth in the Caulfield Cup after winning the Naturalism, and he has the class to improve. He was well beaten on a heavy track in the Turnbull, so a soft rating is a concern, and 3200m is new for him. Placings from here are bunched and hard to separate.
12th — Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)
She ran second in last year’s Cup, so she has proven form over 3200m at Flemington. She’s carrying 3.5kg more this time, though, and she was beaten nine lengths and finished last in the Kilternan last start. Barrier 19 doesn’t help. She could easily run into a place again if she runs back to her Goodwood win, but we’ve held her down the order.
11th — Mr Monaco (GB)
He won the Bart Cummings and ran a close third to Juja Kibo at the Valley, and he meets that horse 2kg better. A soft track would also help. Against that, he was 11th in the Sydney Cup, his only run at 3200m, and he has an apprentice having his first Cup ride. He’s a better each-way type than a winner for us.
10th — James J Braddock (GB)
This lightly raced three-year-old ran third in the English Derby, so he has a profile that suits this race. But he’s drawn the widest barrier, has never raced beyond about 2400m, and was well beaten in the Irish Derby. He’s a genuine wildcard who could easily finish higher or lower. We’ve put him tenth, though there’s not much between the runners from here down.
9th — Enfjaar (IRE)
His Caulfield Cup third was one of the best runs by an international this spring, and he raced handy and fought hard. He’s only been running at staying trips since August, though, and 3200m is a big step up from 2400m. We expect him to be in the fight until late and then lose a few spots in the final 200m.
8th — Sons And Lovers (GB)
He has good staying form, winning the Prix Maurice de Nieuil and over 3000m in Saudi Arabia, then running second under 63.5kg at Leopardstown. Barrier 3 should get him a handy spot. As topweight with 57.5kg, and still without a win at 3200m, he’ll find it hard to hold off the lighter horses late. We expect him to stay on into the top ten.
7th — Middle Earth (GB)
He ran third in last year’s Cup, and barrier 1 means Zahra can save ground the whole way. The problem is his form this preparation: he’s been unplaced five times, including eighth in the Cox Plate. If he gets back to last year’s level he could finish higher, but on what he’s shown this spring we can’t put him in the top five.
6th — So You Are
He’s won four in a row, including the ATC St Leger and last week’s Bendigo Cup, and should get a forward spot from barrier 7. A wet track won’t bother him. He’s backing up within a week, though, and this is a big jump in class from those wins. We think he grinds into the top six without quite finishing as strongly as the better-class horses.
5th — Juja Kibo (IRE)
He comes in on a winning run after taking the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup, and Clipperton expects a career-best run. Both wins came at 2400–2500m off moderate tempos, so a true-run 3200m is the question. He also meets Mr Monaco 2kg worse than at the Valley. He’s in form and handles the wet, so we expect him to be in the finish.
4th — Shockletz (NZ)
She won the Archer Stakes (2500m) at Flemington and has been closing well since, including a fast-finishing second in the Tesio. With 51kg on her back she’s well weighted. Barrier 17 means she’ll get back, and her rider still isn’t confirmed after Coffey’s collarbone surgery. That uncertainty keeps us from rating her any higher.
3rd — Hopewell Rock (IRE)
He went down by a head in the Ebor (2786m), which is strong handicap form, and he handles rain-affected ground, which matters if the track ends up soft. He’s untried at 3200m and comes in fresh from a spell after a handicap rather than a Group campaign. From barrier 15 he will need cover. We think he’s progressive enough to fight out the finish.
2nd — Point Of Law (GB)
The Geelong Cup winner on debut here, in a run rated highly, with just 53kg and a nice gate in barrier 9. He is the lightly raced, improving European type that has a strong recent record in this race. He is untried at 3200m and has had only six starts, so the trip and the crowd are real questions. That’s why we have him second rather than on top.
1st — Trustyourinstinct (IRE)
Our top pick. He won the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m) from last, the same lead-up race used by O’Brien’s Cup winners Rekindling and Twilight Payment, and he has won at 3200m. McDonald can drop him out from barrier 18 and give him one run. A fourth in the Irish St Leger is the knock, but at 57kg he has the most complete staying profile in the field.
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