Group 1 Golden Rose Preview & Analysis
September 26, 2019
The Golden Rose has always shaped up as a great race in the past and this Saturday will be no different with Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes, Exceedance & Yao Dash all looking impressive in their lead up performances.
Distance
- 1400m
Track Conditions
- Soft 5
- Rail: True Entire Circuit
Track Bias
- Track should play relatively even dependant on individual race pace, slight advantage to runners off the fence in the straight in lanes 3-6.
Early Speed
- Average
Expecting Yao Dash (4) to take up the running at an average pace with Bivouac (6) to sit outside the speed with Dawn Passage (8) working across sit behind the leaders with Yes Yes Yes (2) on the inside.
Top Pick
James Cummings has 2. Bivouac flying and looks set to peak here over the 1400m, was dominant first up over 1100m at Caulfield before a flat run second up on a heavy track at Rosehill where the colt didn’t show his acceleration in the going. Bounced back to form last start over 1200m at Rosehill back to a good surface sitting outside the pace and coming away late so the step up in distance here shouldn’t be an issue. Hugh Bowman gets back on board, from barrier 6 should work across to sit outside an average speed set by Yao Dash and with that turn of foot he has displayed will be hard to run down.
Danger
Expecting sharp improvement second up here from the Chris Waller trained 6. Kubrick stepping up to the 1400m, jumped poorly when resuming last start and was never in the race after that point on a track that suited runners up on the pace. Will settle back in the field from the inside barrier and saved for a late finishing burst, if Yao Dash over does it up on the pace it will bring the son of Shooting To Win right into the race at a nice each way price.
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Lay
Against the Hawkes trained colt 5. Exceedance, feel the horse is suited to the 1100m-1200m range at this point in his career and will struggle to run a strong 1400m that will be required against this quality field, also the fact he will giving Bivouac a 2-3 lengths advantage in the run off a predicted average pace is a big negative for me and at the $5.00 I’m happy to risk.
Betting Strategy
Back Bivouac (2 Unit Win Bet) Back Kubrick (0.5 Unit Win Bet) Lay Exceedance ($5.00 or below)
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