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Results:
- 101.60 Units Profit
- 15.8% ROI
Suns vs Bucks G1
I was pretty keen on betting this line anyway so seeing Giannis upgraded to questionable tipped me over. It didn’t sound good coming into today and honestly I don’t think he should be playing in a clearly compromised way as his game revolves so much around athleticism, but it’s really sounding like he’s going to try give it a go. Middleton’s usage drops from 32.9% to 25.3% with Giannis on the floor and is averaging just 18.5 points per 36 compared to the 28.7 per 36 with Giannis off. He’s been so much better at home throughout the playoffs with a massive drop in efficiency when he gets on the road as his eFG% comes right down to 46.5% from 55.0% at home. I really think Bucks are going to have a tough time scoring in this series, up against a defence that is so much better than anything they have faced through the playoffs. Specifically, Middleton is going to get his toughest matchup of the playoffs and we’ve really seen him struggle against tougher matchups thus far. Bruce Brown was able to lock him up as he went just 13-41 and 31% from the floor against him, as well as just 4-19 against KD. He really took advantage of sub-par matchups going 10-20 (29pts, 50%) against Joe Harris, 8-15 (20pts, 53.3%) against Duncan Robinson, 5-9 (19pts, 55.6%) against James Harden and 7-11 (19pts, 63.6%) against Landry Shamet. He’s going to see a ton of Mikal in this one. Mikal did a nice job on him during the season allowing just 12.8% of Middleton’s shot to come at the rim, holding him to 9 points on 4-9 shooting in 34.0 partial possessions (Jrue was out for 1 game also, which would have inflated Middleton’s usage – also for reference 34.0 partial possessions is the 11th most of anyone in the league through the regular season so it’s a decent sample considering they had just 2 games). Just want to highlight I am keen on this bet regardless of Giannis’ status, but it’s obviously much stronger if Giannis is in. I think he plays.
- Khris Middleton UNDER 25.5 Points @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
Staking Plan – 1 unit out
- Khris Middleton UNDER 25.5 Points @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
