FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 3rd September

Bit of a softer surface than anticipated greets us on Jolly Beggar Stakes Day today at Belmont. Only the 8 races with the rail at the true pad, will definitely pay to take note of any patterns that emerge early in the day particularly with this rail position.

Race 1 – 12:04PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. Real Grace – 2. Cash Away – 1. Ghost Who Walks – 7. Nights Mystery

Real Grace

Real Grace resumes here after a 13 month lay off. Didn’t come up last prep but put in some massive runs when she was 3yo, namely in a couple of huge floggings in lesser grade and in a very hot 60+ at Ascot when she drew barrier 16 of 16, was the best closer in a race that included Chantorque, Miss Frost and River Beau. Has had 2 recent trials, particularly the most recent I thought was an ominous sign she has come back very well. Pat had her under lock and key, gave her a little squeeze and she walked past Saintorio who went super in a hot 3yo race last weekend. Slight concern with the rail at the true pad (and now the softer surface we find ourselves on) which can mean that it plays very on-pace/leaders particularly early, but if she’s forward enough and the track is fairer than anticipated, she has a dynamic turn of foot and in the small field with some cover I think she can get over these. With the money for Cash Away, the $4.20 on offer is just too far over my marked price, although she might be a little underdone I think she’s the best horse in the race and am happy to have something on without being overly bullish.

1 Unit WIN

Cash Away hardest to beat, just think she might have the task of towing the rest of the field up to Nights Mystery which could leave him a little vulnerable late if they really burn along with that galloper, anticipate with the light weight they will. Think that State Of Power form is strong while Ghost Who Walks is also flying.

Race 2 – 12:43PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

3. Strike Now – 1. Let’s Galahvant – 2. Ain’t No Other Man – 4. Astro Warrior

Strike Now

Really like this horse Strike Now for Jason Miller. Loved his trials leading into his 1st up run, thought he was super there hitting the line amongst some traffic as well as, if not better than Alsephina, a very nice horse and a form line I think will prove to be very strong. His last 100m suggests the rise up to 1300m here is very much to his advantage, gains the services of CJP who is the perfect booking for a horse with his racing pattern. From barrier 2, anticipate they might land 3 back the fence here in running, a position from which you always need a bit of luck, but from what I’ve seen of him so far I think this is a really promising, Saturday level horse that can go through the grades and is incredibly well placed back into a Westspeed. Clint should be able to hop on the back of main danger Let’s Galahvant and follow that galloper through along the inside. Gets 1kg here on Let’s Galahvant for beating that runner home last start, Clint will just need a gap to appear for him in the straight and I’m very confident that he should be winning if it does.

2.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:23PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

5. Alsephina – 1. No Change – 9. The Great Hoya – 3. Ginger Green

Alsephina has got absolute panels on these, it’s just where she lands in running from the gate.

I’m not as glass half empty as some might be, it makes sense Pat goes back to last from the draw but outside of No Change and Simple Logic, there is no speed here. The way this horse began fresh, I’m confident if Pat chose to press on she could fall into a lovely spot stalking that pair without being posted deep and if that were to happen I think she’s a complete moral. On the flip side, they go back to last, muddlingly run race, rail in the true could potentially mean its very difficult to make ground from such a position and although she could still be good enough to pick them up, all of a sudden she’s under the odds. This is a very moderate bunch, she’s the lightly raced mare posting super figures and only getting better with racing, I hope they chance their arm and try find that spot that I think is there, because if she does then I think it could be race over. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 4 – 2:03PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Titan Blinders – 4. Universal Pleasure – 8. Queen Of Soul – 7. Regal Magic

This is one of the races of the day for mine, plenty of talking points.

Universal Pleasure the big fresh winner against the pattern of the day taking the step up into stronger grade, Queen Of Soul resuming for Simon Miller off the back of 2 very nice trials and having beaten home Universal Pleasure fair and square the last time they met, throw in a flying Regal Magic and the WA debut of Titan Blinders for the Gangemi’s and you’ve got a ripping race.

At current prices, I’ll put Titan Blinders on-top here.

His form over in Melbourne going back through it is proper quality Victorian form. Won an Ararat Bowl, went around in some very high class events and was always well thought of in the market in these races as well against black-type and Stakes performed horses. Thought his recent step out at the trials was super, looks to have come over in great order and although it has been a little while between drinks for him and the 1200m might be a touch on the short side, if he is anywhere near his top his best form just wins this? As a 7 year old it’s certainly difficult to improve them, but with some freshness in his legs, a great map and double figures to find out if the Gangemi’s have found a length or two in him, I think he’s a great price.

Universal Pleasure I marked a $3.80 favourite. Huge win at a trip short of her best last start on a dead rail, had too much class for them. This is a big step up in grade, but maps to land in the box seat one out, one back stalking a very hot tempo. Interestingly, albeit at different stages of their preparations was beaten home last time she met Queen Of Soul and is actually 1kg worse off to that runner despite being beaten. She’s classy and suspect she will go very close and if you really like her, she’s a nice price to be diving into, happy to save on her.

Regal Magic is flying, just always ends up back in traffic with her racing pattern from inside draws, another tough steer for Holly while Queen Of Soul resumes off a couple of very nice trials and the tempo in this race certainly plays into her hands if they overdo it out in front, lands midfield with cover and lets rip down the middle, if they can make ground with the rail at the true then she is right in the game. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:39PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

9. Castillo De Lago – 3. Allez Allez – 8. Let’sdeal – 6. Power Of St George

Think Castillo De Lago is ready to lead and win.

In what looks a potentially messy affair, where better to be than out in front rolling along?
That last start effort when only grabbed very late by Currimundi and Ginger Baker was super, finds a race here where he maps to get it very soft out in front, Chris Parnham a hugely positive jockey change and drops 3kgs of weight off his back. 3rd up now, hard fit, ready to peak this preparation and although this is a step up in terms of grade, he will give you what I suspect to be a very big sight. Price is completely gone now ($13.00 into $5.00 no scratchings), wait for betfair and hope for some big Let’sdeal money.

1.2 Units WIN @BSP

Allez Allez steps to the mile for his 3rd run at the campaign, another who maps for a cushy run from the draw and that form he brings here with him has to mean he’s a red hot chance in this doesn’t it? 1st up terrific closer in a hot form race behind Multinational and Phantom, last start got further back than anticipated but thought his last 200m was super when only grabbed on the post by Zero Demerits, bodes well for the step up to the mile here and think this is the trip he is looking for now, I really like his chances again. Pretty keen to back both.

0.8 Units WIN 

Let’sdeal I respected in my market but cant get him anywhere near as short as he is. Won a moderate CL3 but did do it in very nice fashion, caught on the back of a tiring horse and having to sustain a run from 800m out. Didn’t show much early speed there, could end up in a tricky spot from the draw if he shows similar tactical speed. It’s a big step going from CL3 to a Saturday 66+, but he’s lightly raced and progressive and wouldn’t surprise me if he is up to the task.

Little pot on Rejuva King although I love the formula placing the 3yo up against the older horses on the minimum. Not sure that 3yo form out of the races he has been winning is the strongest we’ve got and he will be spotting stronger, more seasoned horses a big start here than what he has been able to get past at his last couple. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:15PM TABTOUCH-BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

3. General Grant – 5. Crescent City – 2. Bold Success – 6. Our Norman

I was $7 the field here so this was a bit of a nightmare.

A lot of these race against each other quite regularly in these events so I approached the race with the mindset of trying to find some different form and although I hate barrier 1, I thought the effort of General Grant 1st up in a very fast run mile at Pinjarra, carrying 62kgs mind you, was enormous. Barrier 1 ultimately not an ideal draw for a horse that appreciates being wound up and sustaining a long run from the 600m, but if Brad can extricate him off the fence at the right moment then I think he’s a terrific winning chance.

No real interest outside of that, Crescent City packed it in when he looks to have Bold Success cold last start, Our Norman rolls along out in front and was a winner a month between runs the last time we saw him, gets here a month between runs again so perhaps he races better with his runs a little more spaced. Axel R Eight could potentially hold out Our Norman with some aggression and I think leading with him vastly increases his chances, he has a great platform stepping up in trip coming from that same race as General Grant, a pretty brutally run mile at Pinjarra.

Wide open. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 7 – 3:50PM JOLLY BEGGAR STAKES (1000 METRES)

4. Comes A Time – 8. Nowhiteflag – 7. Spin The Knife – 5. Gemma’s Son

Comes A Time

The horse that maps for the plum run on the back of the leading pair stalking their every move is Comes A Time and think he poses one of the better bets of the day here. For me, he’s a horse who hasn’t reached his ceiling yet and as I’ve touched on, think the race shapes super for the run he looks to get. Won fresh lugging 60.5kgs on a bog track giving weight to a strong field with improvement to come. Gets weight swings on his rivals from that race that come here for having beaten them home and from barrier 3 lands in the 1×1 stalking the leading pair. I think he looks super hard to beat and his stats over the 1000m, although some of us may think is a little short of his best trip, are terrific.

3 Units WIN

Race 8 – 4:25PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

3. Don’t Fuss – 8. Multinational – 5. Em Tee Aye – 2. Eeyore Wayz

With the track now softer than expected, Multinational is incredibly hard to knock once again. Comes through hot form races, maps a treat again and gets his more favourable wetter conditions that he’s shown he gets through so well.

Don’t Fuss finds the most suitable race of the preparation here. This horse is absolutely flying for Dan and Ben Pearce, punched deep on a bog when only 2L adrift of Jolly Beggar favourite Comes A Time, before last start sat in the breeze outside Mood Swings, took care of him and was only run down late by Mercanto, that’s very good form. Senior on in the form of Chris Parnham, map wise from 6 could just about land 1×1 here and find a lovely spot in running. Has been $16.00 to $9.50 and I think that is smart money. Goes on top for me at the prices, potentially back and save the pair? View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Real Grace 1 Unit WIN
• Race 2 Strike Now 2.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 Castillo De Lago 1.2 Units WIN @BSP/Allez Allez 0.8 Units WIN
• Race 7 Comes A Time 3 Units WIN

8.5 Units Staked, should be a strong turnover day, looking forward to the day’s racing. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Fill In The Form Below T0 Receive Our Tips Straight To Your Email Each Week
For FREE!