FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 17th September

Pleasantly surprising level of depth to today’s Belmont card highlighted by the Nicopolis Stakes. Track is a Good 4 and the rail is at the 6m position to the 400m, and 3m from the 400m to the post.

Race 1 – 12:04PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

1. Saintorio – 2. Saloon Bar – 6. Classic Encounter – 5. Sofia’s Symphony

Saintorio

Albeit a small field, real quality race to kick off the day. I loved the run of Saintorio 1st up, Azena had his back in the run there in a really strong form reference race and he was going away from her on the line, she’s come out and been a very impressive subsequent winner since. Beat home Saloon Bar, who I really like as a horse, just think he is still very green and raw, Saintorio is very professional the way he races and think that because you know what you are going to get with him he gets the ever so slight edge for me, particularly at the price differential in the current market and Saloon Bar dropping back in trip from his last start win.

The map is guesswork, Classic Encounter the way she has been beginning at trials likely leads and Bob might have a heart attack if she does, but she also looks a very nice filly and may be suited walking them along in a very small field, I could also see Saintorio landing in front by default given a few of these are very slow beginners, which admittedly wouldn’t be ideal as I think he would be far better suited to chasing and having something to run down. At current prices, keen to be with Saintorio in the opener but some funny things can happen in these very small fields.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 2 – 12:44PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Cywer  2. Henchard – 3. Vogue’s Choice – 1. Tinsnip

Can’t get Vogue’s Choice anywhere near as short as she is currently, given my thought process being one of either Cywer or Henchard lands on her shoulder in the breeze here, and if that’s the case then I think either of them (or both) will go past her late.

Those 2 runners are the best horses in the race, just a few queries for me regarding their respective maps and their current prices being a little on the thin side.

Henchard was terrific 1st up, tricky map from barrier 7, do they try find the breeze outside Vogue’s Choice in what looks a muddlingly run race or are they happen to again try find cover back in the field? If the latter, I think the race sets up beautifully for Paul Harvey and Cywer to roll across to sit outside Vogue’s Choice, he was super tough to fight back and win at Northam last start in a CL1 where they went 6.5L faster than average. He’s really progressive and ultimately is a better horse than Westspeed grade, so is Henchard, just a tough race to map from their barriers and where they end up in running coupled with both being a touch on the short side for me, but they are the two main winning chances. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:19PM VALE WAYNE PUGH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Karli’s Karma – 1. Ain’t No Other Man – 2. Agent Jay – 7. Wiener Waltz

Karli’s Karma

Best bet of the day for me here in Karli’s Karma resuming for the new stable in Summer Dickson. Think she has a class edge on these and looks to only be improving the more racing they get under her belt. Thought her recent trial was enormous, looks your mapped horse here from the gate with good speed engaged, parks just in behind them in the box-seat and really confident she goes past them late. Horse that looks very capable of going right through the grades this preparation and this looks a terrific set-up to kick off in, very keen on her, just hoping for something closer to $3.00 late.

3.5 Units WIN View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 4 – 1:59PM ASCOT RACING CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. Pixie Chix – 3. State Of Power – 2. Ghost Who Walks – 7. Rockin Rupert

Pixie Chix

Two horse race for me here this 1000m contest, and am going to side with what is currently the value of the pair of those in the market in the form of Pixie Chix. Thought her effort 1st up was super to run 3rd behind her main danger here in State Of Power. Gets a 3kg swing on her here for a 1.5L defeat, takes improvement from that fresh effort and maps really nicely here parked midfield in behind a very solid tempo. Harvey sticks, don’t think there is a great deal between them but currently she poses the value for me in the market so that’s the way we will go, think she can turn the tables.

2 Units WIN

State Of Power is flying, finally draws a gate to just sit on the towball of Olga Louisa who will take her right to the 200m, wobble off the fence and give her a lovely run through along the rail. Maps a treat, the winner should be coming from those two. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:39PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

4. Catalpa – 3. Tri For Us – 7. Cheerful Moment – 1. Brother Paddy

Catalpa

I cannot believe this betting plunge on Catalpa (opened $4.40 TABTouch and $5.00 elsewhere Thursday morning, currently into $2.15 with very minimal deductions).

In saying that, he looks the A1 mapped horse here from the barrier stalking the speed tucked away behind Cheerful Moment and Great Fortune. Thought his effort last start when just grabbed late by Rejuva King was terrific, was the first horse to go after a tearaway leader there and there was a real space back to 3rd. Sat very handy to a speed 6L faster than average and still reeled off the 2nd quickest last 200m of the race. Harvey sticks, draws barrier 1 again, improving track, just think he looks terribly hard to beat again with the gun run along the inside he gets here. $3.00+ late and we are getting involved.

3 Units WIN @$3.00+ BSP

Loved the 1st up effort of Tri For Us and his trials prior to that run, just a little worried where he gets to in the run here from the barrier and how much of a start he spots the favourite, the Durrant stable really starting to get warm now as is Clint Johnston Porter who’s back from his little hiatus and riding super. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:20PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Real Grace – 5. Alsephina – 1. Probity – 3. Ginger Green

Intriguing race here the first leg of the quaddie (and we see Real Grace step out here for the first time this preparation off the back of 4 very impressive trials)

In all seriousness, she’s gone to the line in both runs still on the bridle and looked arguably ready to really let rip in both, particularly last Saturday, if she found room there I think she definitely would have won that race. Finally draws off the fence to sit midfield with cover and take bad luck out of the equation, slight query for me here being the rise up to 1400m which we haven’t seen her over given she really hasn’t been asked to fully exert herself at 1200m yet this prep.

Alsephina was a touch disappointing last start but potentially had to do a bit too much work early in a really slowly run race to actually put her into that race, left her wanting a tad late, she’s your map horse here and lands in the box-seat getting the run of the race, she’s still yet to reach her ceiling but on feel, I just think Real Grace might still have a bit on her in terms of ability? Could be wrong, but think Real Grace can open her account here getting over the top of them late sprinting from what should be a fairly similar position parked just in behind Alsephina, who looks the obvious danger. Both somewhat still queries at the 1400m.

Current prices won’t get me for either, I marked Alsephina $3.40 and Real Grace $4.00. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 7 – 4:00PM PENINSULA DINING ROOM HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

2. Axel R Eight – 5. Aragain – 1. Truly Reliable – 4. Overthought

Think that General Grant form is the right reference to be following into this staying event, so that’s the way we will go.

Thought Axel R Eight‘s effort last start rolling to the top and leading at a very genuine tempo was terrific. Had to do some work early to get across and particularly liked the way he fought back in the straight when headed there by General Grant. He was holding the rest of that field through the line, he’s a genuine staying type where the faster they go the more his supreme stamina comes into play,
Thought he could roll across to the top here again, albeit with what looks like a bit of pressure in the form of Deal Red and Devonia, drops in grade to a 60+, he comes through the superior form reference and think he goes very close to a win. Just want something in that $7.00 region to be getting involved.

Would be happy to chop out on Aragain, who I thought was super 1st up mind you in that same race. Really strong through the line, gains the services of Brad Parnham and maps for a very cushy run in transit 3 back the fence here from the inside stall. Slight knock on her being although she’s a very consistent type, she potentially lacks that killer blow? But she will have derived huge benefit from that 1st up run coming here.

Race 8 – 4:40PM NICOPOLIS STAKES (1200 METRES)

9. Solaia – 4. Startrade – 2. Comes A Time – 6. Long Beach

Give Solaia more of a chance than some might here. With what looks really good speed engaged across the line (Great Again/Gemma’s Son/Excellent Dream/Long Beach/Mood Swings all jostling for position), I could see Joey landing in that 3 wide moving line with cover blending into the race here. Thought her recent trial was huge and her 1st up effort last prep in the Listed Jungle Mist was outstanding, one of the best runs of her career there. Gets the bar plates off which she wore last preparation, I think with some luck from the barrier she can run a belter here 1st up.

Comes A Time is a deserving favourite, went down very narrowly last start, maps perfectly again here one out, one back from the barrier with Harvey taking the steer. Arguably (in my opinion) better suited getting out to the 1200m, obviously looks very hard to beat while Startrade was the surprise winner knocking off Comes A Time last start in a monster performance, also suited by the rise in trip. Comes A Time gets a 1.5kg weight swing on him, but he’s just a proper race horse this bloke, as genuine as they come and may well find himself on Comes A Time’s back here drawn alongside each other following him through. He’s a ripper

Very open betting race this, happy to sit out in terms of unit plays and just bet to prices (Solaia $12 upwards late I feel would be over the odds and enough to get involved, wait for Betfair)

Race 9 – 5:17PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Em Tee Aye – 3. Billy Ray – 8. Let’s Galahvant – 4. Multinational

Em Tee Aye

Really open race to end the day but a high quality one at that. Em Tee Aye was excellent 1st up from a wide draw, draws far better here in 2 to hold up much closer to the speed. Up to 1400m tick, improving track tick, think he goes very close and looks a really good bet here.

3 Units WIN

The market loves Multinational and he has been revelation this prep, just thought perhaps he had all the favours with the pattern of the day last start when not able too hold out Mood Swings?
Think this race is deeper and likely has to do it from the breeze here or potentially even posted if they really kick up with Let’s Galahvant or the stablemate Brooklyn Pier, I’m going to take him on.

Billy Ray the other runner that interests me in the last who I don’t want to be losing on. His winter campaign showed me he’s really come of age and I loved his recent trial leading into this. Little bit of a sticky map from the gate and where he ends up perhaps, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit to see him charging home over the top of them if some luck goes his way, has really turned a corner, think the cerise and white are just starting to really warm up here in WA.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Saintorio 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 3 Karli’s Karma 3.5 Units WIN
• Race 4 Pixie Chix 2 Units WIN
• Race 5 Catalpa 3 Units WIN @$3.00+ BSP
• Race 9 Em Tee Aye 3 Units WIN/Billy Ray 1 Unit WIN

11 Units locked in, potential for 14 if Catalpa gets out in the market, wouldn’t be taking his current price.

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