FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 10th September

Thin old card at Belmont today for the Farnley Stakes, with a number of shorties that look very hard to beat. Track soft 5, perfect conditions for racing, expecting an upgrade to a Good 4 during the day.

Race 1 – 12:08PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Storm Commander – 1. Sockoff – 4. Requisition – 3. Sunnysilk

Sockoff is your natural leader in the race and by default looks hard to run down. Can pen the last start effort when she wasn’t able to find the top and had to sit outside Olga Louisa, only 2 starts ago really put them to the sword in this grade running a very strong figure. Improving track potentially a negative? All her career best runs have been on tracks soft 6 or worse. Under the odds here at the current price for me, marked her a $3.50 favourite with still some lingering trust issues

Storm Commander finds a really nice race here I feel. Gets a 2.5kg swing on Sockoff for a 2.5L defeat the last time they met, got a long way back there on a heavily on-pace biased day and wasn’t suited by the shape of the race. Maps to land on the back of Sockoff here stalking her every move and an improving track is certainly more in his favour than it is hers, no real interest in the opener but at current prices Storm Commander goes on top for me. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 2 – 12:44PM TONY MARRAFFA PLATE (1000 METRES)

5. Kosta’s Crown – 6. Tiffany Street – 1. Man Crush – 4. Just Go

Kosta’s Crown

Kosta’s Crown is a horse that I have plenty of time for and judging by his recent trials, looks to have come back even better as a 3yo. Both trials were enormous and although still a maiden, had a completely black-type 2yo prep when a very unlucky 3rd in the Perth Stakes when caught very deep, 4th in the Karrakatta and 3rd in the Sires when completely unsuited getting back off what was a farcical tempo. Easily had the measure of Capricorn Man and Man Crush as a 2yo, Harvey jumps off impressive last start winner Just Go to ride him with signals a fair bit of fresh intent, Winkers go on and the small field over the 1000m suits with what looks a very nice little speed battle between Just Go/Man Crush/Capricorn Man and Swim Through out in front. He looks a proper horse and one I really want to be following this preparation, he goes on top for me.

1.5 Units WIN

Tiffany Street the obvious danger. Danny Morton’s 2yos were bomb proof and she put 2 in a line in very strong fashion before being tipped out and maps for a terrific run here resuming without a trial just tucked in behind the speed from a good gate. Slightly more difficult to line up that form as we haven’t seen many of them as 3yos yet, but she is very polished and talented, huge respect to the stable who are just ticking along as good as any here in WA and have been for such a long period of time. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:23PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Protege – 4. Harmika – 6. Real Grace – 3. Strathmore Rose

Big talking point here the favourite Protege, after that dynamite debut win that according to all reports, generated some interest on an international level.

That win was as impressive as they come, 4L faster than all benchmark average and 5L faster than maiden average there and was really soft on the line over that last 100m, horse has a serious motor.
That win is more than stacking up as a form reference as well with 3 subsequent winners already from that race . It is always a big step going from a maiden straight to 60+ grade, but Holly should be able to find the top again with him here with just the 52kgs on his back. Slight query being what Knucks wants to do with Strathmore Rose drawn his inside, I’m anticipating he may make Holly really work for it if she wants the top which changes the complexion of the race if that is the case, but on feel he’s very quick and should eventually be able to get there and cross these. Not sure he gets out to my bet price at $2.90, won’t see me taking even money about him in this field, but he certainly goes on top, could not tip you into anything else.

Race 4 – 2:03PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. No Change – 5. Western Knight – 3. Reign Of Fire – 1. Red Publisher

This looks a really messy race, no real speed engaged, the two best horses in the races get back types drawn inside gates, looks very sticky on paper.

Western Knight will be all the rage after we were with him last start stepping from a maiden to a 60+ and can be considered very unlucky not to have made that step without being victorious. Gives me the vibe he’s a bit like his full brother, still raw, not the finished product and we didn’t really see the best of Western Empire who was similarly at sea early in his career until he got out to those 1400-1600m trips. This is a great race for him in terms of depth being a horse with obvious progression to come, but the map is really sticky drawn the inside pole, likely lands 3 back the fence in what looks a very muddlingly run race needing all the luck to go his way at crucial stages. No value as a result at his current price

No Change is certainly no star but he’s quite simply your mapped horse here. Paul Harvey sticks, gets a very cushy run on-speed in a moderately run affair without any real pressure, the form through his victory 2 starts ago over the 1400m is actually quite strong. Backs up off the 7 days, he has to be a key player again here with the run he is going to get, at current prices he shapes as the bet for me in the race each way.

Reign Of Fire steps up to the 1400m (slight query?) having taken care of a very moderate Westspeed field last start in good fashion. Again, a query being where he gets to back and potentially buried in a race with no speed, could they hold up and sit a pair or two closer from barrier 2 perhaps? His best form would just about win this race comfortably, last start win potentially a confidence booster for him and Uncle Col is really humming at the moment. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:39PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Benjis – 6. Candlelight Supper – 2. Power Of St George – 3. Noble Born

Benjis

For me, Benji’s shapes as one of the better bets of the day here. With Deel Red being risen with aggression and main danger Noble Born likely either having to settle for the breeze or really work to get across, Benji’s from 2 maps for these world perfect run tucked in behind stalking the pair of them. He bolted in last start and although you could say Steve Parnham gave him a 10/10 taking him to the front on an on-pace bias day, he led them there and still reeled off the fastest L200m section of the race, evidently this horse its absolutely flying. Only 3 starts ago defied the pattern to run a terrific 2nd to Multinational, horse has proven to carry weight, I think he looks very hard to beat.

2.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:20PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

5. Blinder – 3. Buster Bash – 6. Westriver Miracle – 8. Sowar

Blinder

The market has identified this as a 3 horse race who all finished within a length of each other last start and I tend to share that same sentiment.

Buster Bash had to settle for the breeze last start in a field that virtually mirrors what he faces here, except theres no That’s Funny Az to keep him from finding the fence. Had Westriver Miracle right on his back throughout and was able to stave that runner off in the fight to the line, finds the top here with a lack of pressure but does get penalised 1.5kgs on Westriver and 2kgs on Blinder for last start. Not hopeless on dry ground, but a Soft 5/Good 4 perhaps a slight negative for him, we know how effective he is getting his toe in, he’s a proper swimmer and maybe a good 4 might bring him further back to them a fraction.

I’m actually keen to be with Blinder here for Neville Parnham, genuinely think he can turn the tables on the favourite.

He’s been really building and this is the best set-up he has found himself in all prep. Gets a 2kg swing on Buster Bash for being beaten 0.7L, maps for the run of the race here tucked in behind the leading pair, anticipating from the sticky draw Westriver Miracle rolls forward to sit at the girth of Buster. Brad Parnham is riding as well as anyone at the moment and this horse back onto a dry track is a huge tick, far more effective on top of the ground. At the price differential, more than happy to be with Blinder here to turn the tables.

1 Unit WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 7 – 3:55PM HAPPY 80TH BIRTHDAY TED ROBINSON HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

7. Go Forward – 5. State Of Power – 1. All Day Session – 2. Don’t Fuss

Go Forward

I am really keen to be with this horse on 2 conditions.
A. The track is a soft 5 or better; and
B. By race 7 the track has shown that runners are capable of making ground down the middle

If not, then I have absolutely no interest in Go Forward, who is clearly my on-top selection following his huge last start effort behind State Of Power. Rattled to the line after being held up turning for home on that heavy on-pace bias day, gets a 2kg swing here on State Of Power and finds a race with really good speed engaged. Soft 5 or Good 4, middle of the track playing okay, I’m on.

3 Units WIN (I’d suggest keeping a watch on the track and how it is playing)

State Of Power is a model of consistency, has a tough map to contend with here with speed drawn underneath while Time Scale could be forgotten about in the market, ran a super race fresh at the 1000m last prep from an impossible position in a very high-rating contest. Maps super from the draw as well.

Race 8 – 4:30PM FURPHY – FARNLEY STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Resortman – 7. Phanta – 4. Western Temple – 9. Vane Tempest

Hard to find an angle I want to take in the feature here.

Resortman faces half the field again here he took care of in the Idyllic Prince, loves being 3 deep at Belmont and you’d think here that he may even find some cover 3 deep in this event with speed drawn all across the line. Really put them to the sword there, twice a winner at 1400m and although has to concede a number of runners big weight swings here, you just have to respect him don’t you? Why do I still have lingering trust issues? Market has priced him about smack bang where I have him too.

Phanta gets in on the minimum and in all honesty, if he found a map that allowed him to cross and find the fence I without doubt would have marked him favourite. Great Again drawn underneath means he likely has to settle for the breeze, which makes life tougher for him but he has posted some incredibly figures at 1400m this preparation because he can do it at both ends, brings the strongest different form into this race but still a little under the odds for me at the current price.

Vane Tempest and Western Temple the clear blowout chances for me here with some luck, but other then that not a great deal else to touch on. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 9 – 5:05PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Position Of Power – 8. Advanced – 3. Weaponson – 6. Holy Ghost

Paul Harvey on to Position Of Power certainly caught my eye when going through this field.

This horse was terrific last start, rattling to the line alongside Regal Magic against the pattern of the day. This 66+ isn’t as deep as that last start event, Harvey jumps aboard and he’s just your mapped horse from barrier 1, tracks the speed leaders back and should get every chance to run down what looks a really weak speed, query on whether that spot in running on the fence is where you want to be by this stage of the day. Ticks plenty of boxes, $9 each way about him I think is really good value in the last.

Paying good respect to Advanced, who was going past them 1st up before taking a dip at the 200m, maybe one of very few horses to find that infamous Belmont trench all season. The betting support for this horse has been relentless ($3.80 to $2.50 at the time of writing) and while this looks a muddling, messy affair on paper which isn’t overly great for a horse that looks to sit midfield with some cover, take on trust Chris Parnham can keep him out of trouble from barrier 5. This is very winnable and the punters seem to agree.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Kosta’s Crown 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 Benjis 2.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 Blinder 1 Unit WIN
• Race 7 Go Forward 3 Units WIN (keep a watch on the track pattern, need to be able to make some ground by this stage of the day, if it’s a hot rail again then leave him out)

8 Units Staked, best of luck if following.

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