FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 7th May

Going to take a little while to get over Power Of St George from yesterday, in the meantime we must look forward. The final Saturday Ascot meeting of the season greets us, the track is looking very tired and am looking forward to returning to Belmont as of next week. Good 4, light NE winds and perfect conditions for racing, anticipating it will be an advantage to be on-speed throughout.

Race 1 – 12:14PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

3. Premium Choice – 4. Read The Riot Act – 5. Safety Bay – 1. Scandolo

Race 2 – 12:49PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. Lexington City – 5. Cold Shizzle – 3. Via Monte – 3. Tadweer

Lexington City

Maybe we underrated him? He’s very fast. Posted a really strong 1000m figure when leading throughout last start and only grabbed by Sneaky Chance who is evidently flying, with Hardly Ever coming from 3rd and bolting in last weekend. Carbery should lead this without any pressure whatsoever and he will be there for a very long way, especially once he kicks on the bend. What impressed me was how easily he shook off Metallon last start who was applying pressure from the outset, there’s definitively no Metallon here. Can pinch this and has been the subject of heavy early support in a sharp little 3yo event, $3.30 my bet price.

1.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP

Cold Shizzle

Comes here 1st up no trial and when he last met Via Monte in a hot race behind Spin The Knife, was slow away and beaten 1.3L by that runner, here gets a 4kg swing in his favour and gains the services of Johnston Porter. Maps to land one off the fence 3 pairs back, gets the Winkers on. My query is the trip, 1st up at 1200m last prep to break his maiden he really took a long time to wind up and just got there, a luxury you aren’t offered in a strong race like this over the 1000m. Tough race to attack fresh, but he’s really well in and over the odds as a progressive type at $15.00.

0.5 Units WIN

Via Monte is a really nice horse for the Mortons. 1st up no trial here off an 8 week layoff so will carry some residual fitness. 2 wins and 2 2nds from 4 starts last prep, with those 2nds when bumping into a flying Spin The Knife and up the straight when bumping into straight specialist Material Witness. The fresh run to break her maiden was dynamite, didn’t get a look at them until passing the 200m and once she found the split she put them away in a matter of strides. Has the gate speed to land on the back of Lexington City here and be the first horse to come after her. I think she carries with her the strongest form here and is hardest to beat, she’s just a little thin for me at the quote in a hot race to kick off her campaign.

Race 3 – 1:20PM BELHUS RACING STABLES PLATE (1100 METRES)

2. Lord Gannicus – 4. Tiffany Street – 6. Rockon Molly – 9. Schnoots

Race 4 – 2:00PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Sniparoochy – 2. Beat The Bro – 3. Blow Me Out – 7. Wakan Tanka

Race 5 – 2:40PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

4. It’sarayday – 3. Ziebell – 5. Written Matter – 2. Liwa

It’sarayday

Really well found by the market, as expected, but think It’sayday can resume a winner here. Recent trial was superb, horse with high cruising speed that can still let down powerfully. Lands on the back of Ziebell here from the gate, love the 1100m opposed to resuming at the 1000, think he just stalks him and will be the first one to take over once they straighten. Will have a big tactical advantage on main dangers, Written Matter will be right out the back as will Liwa who I anticipate will go back after their failed experiment last start rolling forward. Only tiny query is whether he hits the front a fraction too early, but if Ziebell is really coming back to them late then I just don’t think they’ll be able to come from behind him and run him down, he’s a beast and really excited to see what’s in store for him.

Sadly, he’s at an unbackable quote currently, pray for a drift that I don’t think will come.

4 Units WIN @$2.00+ BSP

Race 6 – 3:15PM CITY OF BELMONT FAMILY DAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. First Law – 9. Above The Peg – 6. Savage One – 1. Double Spice

Race 7 – 3:45PM EURYTHMIC STAKES (2200 METRES)

2. Sentimental Queen – 7. Morton’s Fork – 1. Marocchino – 3. Prince Turbo

Race 8 – 4:15PM BELMONT CITY OF OPPORTUNITY HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

2. General Grant – 5. Aragain – 6. Hezapro – 1. Blackwater Bay

General Grant

Think General Grant looks really well-placed here. Really strong effort last time out in a very strong race behind Buster Bash, profiles to me like a genuine stayer, gets out to the trip here and is a proven weight carrier. He’s a horse that does like to wind up a long way from home and sustain a run, Brad Parnham’s main task will be extricating him off the fence at the right moment to give him enough time to get through his gears

Aragain and Hezapro are both going really well and probably pose the main threats to the favourite, but I’m keen to be with General Grant here.

2 Units WIN

Race 9 – 4:52PM HAPPY 70TH BIRTHDAY RON SAYERS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

9. Special View – 7. Piccola Signora – 2. Downforce – 4. Eurasia

Special View

When I die, I want Special View to lower me into my grave so he can let me down one last time. Just gets another terrific set-up here, unopposed lead, 52kgs on his back after the claim for Jett, was only just grabbed by Kaymay in the shadows last start and gets 3.5kgs in his favour on that runner. Jett did go pretty hard on him out in front last start and he did have to do some work early to get across which if he begins well, I don’t think he will have to do this time around. With no weight on his back, I hope Jett is aggressive and doesn’t die wondering, gets rolling approaching the corner, steals a break and makes them do all the chasing. I’m $3.30 so the $7.00 was more than acceptable, as is the current $5.50 on offer.

1 Unit WIN

Downforce will appreciate dropping back to the mile but I’ve given him life, if Jett goes too hard and they’re all stopping them Piccola Signora is capable of swamping them from last but I’ve got genuinely large queries on all other runners in this field.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Lexington City 1.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP/Cold Shizzle 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 It’sarayday 4 Units WIN @$1.90+ BSP
• Race 8 General Grant 2 Units WIN
• Race 9 Special View 1 Unit WIN

3.5 units staked, potential for 9 if we see bet prices in races 2 and 5.

Fill In The Form Below T0 Receive Our Tips Straight To Your Email Each Week
For FREE!