FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 2nd April

Karrakatta Plate Day. Our state’s feature for the 2yos and one of my favourite days on the WA racing calendar. Maybe a trickle of showers forecast but we’ll head in with the mindset that those don’t exist, we are going to be on a hard, fast and firm track.

Race 1 – 12:22PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM AUTUMN SERIES HEAT (1100 METRES)

6. Pink N Gray – 3. Bedouin Belle – 2. Leica Jaguar – 5. Lord Lonsdale

No real thoughts here.

Pink N Gray is racing really well and has an opportunity to find the fence here if Whiting wishes to. Held Leica Jaguar really well given her run in transit 7 days ago and was the far superior of the two runs for mine, with Leica Jaguar also getting the Bar Plates on here. Have marked $3.50, which is incredible since it’s Pink N Gray, I’d be happy to take $7-8 personally but obviously, no intention of diving in. Horse has, and may continue to, hate winning.

Race 2 – 1:02PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Harmika – 4. Rockin Rupert – 3. State Of Power – 2. Metallon

Harmika

Harmika is lightly raced, has a serious engine and all the form behind her this prep has proven to be super strong form. Loved the ride sitting on the shoulder of Otheroneson last start and getting the better of him late (who has more than a handy level of ability himself). They ran time, she drops 4kgs at the weights, gets 1.5kgs swing on Metallon from a 1L defeat last time they met and a much better map than that runner. Maps for a cushy run leaders back behind a runner who will leave gaps there for her to come through on the corner. Very likeable in this field from the draw.

1.5 Units WIN

Rockin Rupert

Rockin Rupert interests me a fraction here. Was never in it fresh when he missed the kick, loved the way he tracked up to the back of the field and actually thought he traveled into that race really well, before never finding any running room in the straight. Both of this boy’s wins have been when settling in the breeze and 3 deep, up and outside the speed, and if you watch both of his trials prior to his debut win, they were very similar. There is an opportunity here with the senior back-on to take him to the breeze here outside Wuhan Warrior or potentially even lead if that runner shows no interest in doing so. Bit of tinkering with the gear, I think if he can land outside leader he could prove hard to get past in the straight. Needs to step better. Has some real X factor about him.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 3 – 1:39PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Otheroneson – 1. River Rubicon – 8. Tiff’s Lad – 2. Corn Cob

Otheroneson

Interesting map, you’ll assume given the nature of his last 2 wins up at the Crayfish coast, they will really be keen to come out running on Corn Cob, which, with the lack of other alternative speed in the race, will give Otheroneson this lovely stalking position on the back of that runner.

Otheroneson is a horse I have plenty of time for. Big, striding son of Demerit who carried the 60kgs 1st up when just grabbed in the shadows by another very good one in Harmika, with the length of the straight back to 3rd who has won since. Running the time they did, with the weight he carried 1st up, was a huge performance and you’d think there is only improvement to come. Maps beautifully to park on the back of Corn Cob, I loved his fight when Harmika challenged him to try and kick back/stay in front. I think Danny Morton has himself a proper horse. With Catalpa a scratching, the $1.65 we are left with definitely won’t get me, but if we see a flurry of money come for RR tomorrow, even money will get me here.

4 Units WIN @$2.00+ BSP (doubt we will see it)

River Rubicon was massive last start. Back last, got on the back of a horse he thought was going to take him into the race but went amiss and instead started falling back in his lap, with McGruddy having to pull out 4 deep a long way from home just to keep him in it. He’s continued to monster the line there, comes back against his own age here but is penalised at the weights for it (rises 5.5kgs). Harvey hops aboard, from yet another wide gate, but theres probably a spot for him forward of midfield if he wants it. Does he go forward? Potentially get caught deep and take bad luck out of the equation or does he ease back and try go around them. If Harvey chooses the latter, I think its Otheroneson’s race to lose.

Race 4 – 2:19PM OLD COMRADE STAKES (1600 METRES)

5. Playing Marika – 3. Dom To Shoot – 1. Son Of A God – 6. Bruce Almighty

Playing Marika

Playing Marika brings in the different formlines here. Loved the way she closed off fresh behind Sentimental Queen in a fast run mile, having to also lug the 60.5kgs with plenty of improvement to come. Reunites here with Lucy Warwick who she has a super affinity with (4 wins in the saddle), drops 5kgs at the weights, and most important of all, is on the 7 day back-up. She is an absolute 7 day back-up monster. Last 4 runs off the 7 day back up, 2nd to Beret Listed 1600m Starstruck, 1st 1600m 66+, 1st 1600m 66+, 1st 1800m 60+. She backs up here off 7 days, run under the belt, maps beautifully leaders back cuddled away for Lucy. I think she’s been targeted at assaulting this race in what is an incredibly thin edition of the Old Comrade Stakes.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 5 – 2:55PM AMELIA PARK LAMB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Ghobella – 7. Gold Merits – 4. Koranis – 2. Time Scale

Not a race I’m hugely interested in. Fair bit of speed engaged, with 3 horses that like leading engaged and drawn fairly close in to each other makes for a fascinating early speed battle, can almost guarantee a 3 wide train here.

Ghobella could be the main beneficiary of a 3 deep moving line if Whiting can find it. Thought she was terrific 1st up in a fast run race in by far the inferior ground taking what was a completely shit cutaway, still finished off well enough to run 2nd with plenty of improvement to come. Drawn awkward for the Fish here, but with the speed engaged and a likely 3 deep with cover train, if Whiting can get across and in from 9, she will be charging at those who are tiring late, think this stable is really fit and firing at the moment!

Gold Merits is still going super, been a long prep, can win, really loves Laqdar. Main danger.

Time Scale is going to have some company out in front. Looks the strongest of that trio that vie for the lead but will be paddling late. Not convinced she can hold on.

Koranis trial was super for the new yard, wound up enough fresh at the 1400m my query?

Race 6 – 3:35PM AMELIA PARK BEEF HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

10. Super Ex – 2. How’s The Serenity – 3. Our Boy Dylan – 7. He’s Gold

Super Ex

High pressure race with a number of speed influences.

Olga Louisa finds the front with How’s The Serenity dropping back in trip to the 1000m after racing very keenly when leading last start, finding the breeze. The form around HTS is super, Mood Swings ran huge last weekend when just edged by Buzzoom and Lipstick Flickers was her usual solid self, but given she’s naturally very short, it’s no easy ask doing it from the breeze in a high pressure 1000m.

That being said, I think the race sets up really nicely for a horse able to find that spot on the back of the speed on HTS towball in Super Ex. I thought he should have won last start when heavily impeded in the straight by a riderless horse causing chaos. Harvey maps for a lovely run stalking How’s The Serenity’s every move, gets a nice little 1.5kgs off from last start and the 3 weeks between runs really works for this horse. The $4.60 on offer is thin, $5.50 upwards my bet price.

1 Unit WIN @$5.50+ BSP

Race 7 – 4:14PM AMELIA PARK-KARRAKATTA PLATE (1200 METRES)

10. Amelia’s Jewel – 7. Kosta’s Crown – 3. Left The Building – 16. Baby Paris

Amelia’s Jewel is special, even from the gate looks the one. Carbery can pick and choose which horse he wants to get on the back of 3 or 4 deep, does the gate mean we potentially get a little more meat on the bone? Post barrier draw the price was rock solid, so I’m probably more hopeful than ambitious. I hope she shows everyone just how much of a star we all think she is and zaps them.

Kosta’s Crown

Kosta’s Crown I thought was an outstanding run in the Perth Stakes, in my view far and above the run of the race. If you swap the runs/draw with Left The Building, you can’t convince me he would not have won that race. Draws a gate, will lap up the extra distance and the Casey’s throw the blinkers on here for the Grand Final. I think the $4.40 on offer is a great place bet for him to run a hole.

1.5 Units PLACE 

Baby Paris is the X factor, we don’t really know how good she is? Debut win was terrific when headed in the straight to not only kick back and win but win convincingly. Bit of a spruik around for her.

Race 8 – 4:50PM AMELIA PARK WINES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

2. Comes A Time – 6. Downforce – 1. Solaia – 9. Misty Lad

Really don’t have an interest in this race.

Comes A Time naturally looks the one to beat, good win last start and Parnham should be able to get him across into a pretty similar position here.

I’m really not sure what to do with the Parnham pair Brooklyn Pier and Downforce. Both good runs last start but Downforce is back in trip once again and Brooklyn Pier was in my opinion gifted a win in a field weaker than this. If they really bunch on the corner then that brings Downforce right into it but gee I can’t catch him. He does really get on with Laqdar though.

National Guard improvement wouldn’t surprise, how well are Lindsey’s going over here? Some question marks but seemingly they are getting very warm and Misty Lad the blow out for a very good horseman getting it relatively cheap out in front, think he’s a very good trainer on the rise Ryan Hill.

Race 9 – 5:25PM AMELIA PARK LODGE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

5. Baramagic – 3. Blazing Away – 1. Sowar – 11. Piccola Signora

Messy 1800m race to end the day, another event hard to get enthused about.

At the prices, I thought Baramagic is definitely overs at the $13, thought he was super fresh behind Alaskan God when finding plenty of traffic in the straight there after setting much further back than he usually does. Drawn for a far better run, just not a huge fan of the jockey change.

Sowar was really suited by the tempo when winning last start, they crawled and he was able to show he had the best turn of foot in that field. Drawn poorly, if the Pontiff can give him the right run from the gate and they dawdle then he’s more than capable of winning again, wouldn’t surprise me.

Blazing Away is loving these longer trips but is one of a number of these dropping back sharply in trip, chances don’t end there, Baramagic on top for me but nothing would surprise.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Harmika 1.5 Units WIN/Rockin Rupert 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 3 Otheroneson 4 Units WIN @$2.00+ BSP
• Race 4 Playing Marika 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 Super Ex 1 Unit WIN @$5.50+ BSP
• Race 7 Kosta’s Crown 1.5 Units PLACE

5 Units locked in, potential for 10 with Races 3 and 6 relying on meeting our BSP bet prices.

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